Author
Juha Tervala
Other affiliations: University of Turku, International Monetary Fund
Bio: Juha Tervala is an academic researcher from University of Helsinki. The author has contributed to research in topics: Monetary policy & New Keynesian economics. The author has an hindex of 9, co-authored 71 publications receiving 351 citations. Previous affiliations of Juha Tervala include University of Turku & International Monetary Fund.
Papers published on a yearly basis
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TL;DR: In this article, it is empirically observed that private consumption responds positively to fiscal shocks, based on the idea of complementarity between public and private consumption, and they offer an explanation for this stylized fact.
52 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors quantify the international effects of a fiscal devaluation implemented as a revenue-neutral shift from employers' social contributions to the value added tax, and find that such a shift has a strong positive effect on output, which is five times larger than under a wage tax cut.
Abstract: Given that exchange rate devaluations are no longer available in a monetary union, fiscal devaluations are one potential way to address divergence in competitiveness and trade imbalances. Employing a DSGE model calibrated to the euro area, we quantify the international effects of a fiscal devaluation implemented as a revenue-neutral shift from employers’ social contributions to the value added tax. We find that a fiscal devaluation carried out in the South has a strong positive effect on output, which is five times larger than under a wage tax cut. However, the effect on the trade balance and the real exchange rate is mild. The negative effect on the North’s output is weak.
34 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors focus on the trade-off faced by governments in deciding the allocation of public expenditures between productivityenhancing public infrastructures and utility-enhancing private consumption in a two-country model.
33 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyzed the implications of hysteresis for fiscal policy in a DSGE model and showed that the welfare multiplier is larger in the presence of hystresis.
23 citations
TL;DR: The authors showed that monetary expansion is always a beggar-thyself policy in the short run, regardless of whether the cross-country substitutability is high or low, and showed that it reduces domestic welfare and increases foreign welfare.
23 citations
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TL;DR: The authors measured the long-term effects of the global recession of 2008-2009 on output in 23 countries by comparing current estimates of potential output from the OECD and IMF to the path that potential was following in 2007, according to estimates at the time.
Abstract: This paper estimates the long-term effects of the global recession of 2008-2009 on output in 23 countries I measure these effects by comparing current estimates of potential output from the OECD and IMF to the path that potential was following in 2007, according to estimates at the time The losses in potential output range from almost nothing in Australia and Switzerland to more than 30% in Greece, Hungary, and Ireland; the average loss, weighted by economy size, is 84% Most countries have experienced strong hysteresis effects: shortfalls of actual output from pre-recession trends have reduced potential output almost one-for-one In the hardest-hit economies, the current growth rate of potential is depressed, implying that the level of lost potential is growing over time
255 citations
TL;DR: This article provided a summary of empirical results obtained in several economics and operations research papers that attempt to explain, predict, or suggest remedies for financial crises or banking defaults; they also outline the methodologies used in them.
Abstract: In this article we provide a summary of empirical results obtained in several economics and operations research papers that attempt to explain, predict, or suggest remedies for financial crises or banking defaults; we also outline the methodologies used in them. We analyze financial and economic circumstances associated with the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and the global financial turmoil that has led to severe crises in many countries. The intent of this article is to promote future empirical research for preventing bank failures and financial crises.
221 citations
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors estimate a New-Neoclassical Synthesis model of the business cycle with two investment shocks and find that one of them is an investment-specific technology shock that affects the transformation of consumption into investment goods and is identified with the relative price of investment.
Abstract: We estimate a New-Neoclassical Synthesis model of the business cycle with two investment shocks. The first, an investment-specific technology shock, affects the transformation of consumption into investment goods and is identified with the relative price of investment. The second shock affects the production of installed capital from investment goods or, more broadly, the transformation of savings into future capital input. We find that this shock is the most important driver of U.S. business cycle fluctuations in the postwar period and that it is likely to proxy for more fundamental disturbances to the functioning of the financial sector. To corroborate this interpretation, we show that the shock correlates strongly with interest rate spreads and that it played a particularly important role in the recession of 2008.
201 citations
01 Jan 2016
TL;DR: The models of business cycles is universally compatible with any devices to read, and is available in the book collection an online access to it is set as public so you can download it instantly.
Abstract: Thank you for reading models of business cycles. Maybe you have knowledge that, people have look numerous times for their chosen novels like this models of business cycles, but end up in infectious downloads. Rather than enjoying a good book with a cup of tea in the afternoon, instead they cope with some infectious virus inside their desktop computer. models of business cycles is available in our book collection an online access to it is set as public so you can download it instantly. Our digital library spans in multiple locations, allowing you to get the most less latency time to download any of our books like this one. Merely said, the models of business cycles is universally compatible with any devices to read.
181 citations