Karin Holmgren

Bio: Karin Holmgren is an academic researcher from Stockholm University. The author has contributed to research in topics: Stalagmite & Climate change. The author has an hindex of 37, co-authored 74 publications receiving 7400 citations.

Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data

Abstract: A number of reconstructions of millennial-scale climate variability have been carried out in order to understand patterns of natural climate variability, on decade to century timescales, and the role of anthropogenic forcing These reconstructions have mainly used tree-ring data and other data sets of annual to decadal resolution Lake and ocean sediments have a lower time resolution, but provide climate information at multicentennial timescales that may not be captured by tree-ring data Here we reconstruct Northern Hemisphere temperatures for the past 2,000 years by combining low-resolution proxies with tree-ring data, using a wavelet transform technique to achieve timescale-dependent processing of the data Our reconstruction shows larger multicentennial variability than most previous multi-proxy reconstructions, but agrees well with temperatures reconstructed from borehole measurements and with temperatures obtained with a general circulation model According to our reconstruction, high temperatures--similar to those observed in the twentieth century before 1990--occurred around ad 1000 to 1100, and minimum temperatures that are about 07 K below the average of 1961-90 occurred around ad 1600 This large natural variability in the past suggests an important role of natural multicentennial variability that is likely to continue

Tropical climates at the Last Glacial Maximum: a new synthesis of terrestrial palaeoclimate data. I. Vegetation, lake-levels and geochemistry

Abstract: Palaeodata in synthesis form are needed as benchmarks for the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). Advances since the last synthesis of terrestrial palaeodata from the last glacial maximum (LGM) call for a new evaluation, especially of data from the tropics. Here pollen, plant-macrofossil, lake-level, noble gas (from groundwater) and δ18O (from speleothems) data are compiled for 18±2 ka (14C), 32 °N–33 °S. The reliability of the data was evaluated using explicit criteria and some types of data were re-analysed using consistent methods in order to derive a set of mutually consistent palaeoclimate estimates of mean temperature of the coldest month (MTCO), mean annual temperature (MAT), plant available moisture (PAM) and runoff (P-E). Cold-month temperature (MAT) anomalies from plant data range from −1 to −2 K near sea level in Indonesia and the S Pacific, through −6 to −8 K at many high-elevation sites to −8 to −15 K in S China and the SE USA. MAT anomalies from groundwater or speleothems seem more uniform (−4 to −6 K), but the data are as yet sparse; a clear divergence between MAT and cold-month estimates from the same region is seen only in the SE USA, where cold-air advection is expected to have enhanced cooling in winter. Regression of all cold-month anomalies against site elevation yielded an estimated average cooling of −2.5 to −3 K at modern sea level, increasing to ≈−6 K by 3000 m. However, Neotropical sites showed larger than the average sea-level cooling (−5 to −6 K) and a non-significant elevation effect, whereas W and S Pacific sites showed much less sea-level cooling (−1 K) and a stronger elevation effect. These findings support the inference that tropical sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) were lower than the CLIMAP estimates, but they limit the plausible average tropical sea-surface cooling, and they support the existence of CLIMAP-like geographic patterns in SST anomalies. Trends of PAM and lake levels indicate wet LGM conditions in the W USA, and at the highest elevations, with generally dry conditions elsewhere. These results suggest a colder-than-present ocean surface producing a weaker hydrological cycle, more arid continents, and arguably steeper-than-present terrestrial lapse rates. Such linkages are supported by recent observations on freezing-level height and tropical SSTs; moreover, simulations of “greenhouse” and LGM climates point to several possible feedback processes by which low-level temperature anomalies might be amplified aloft.

European summer temperatures since Roman times

Abstract: The spatial context is criticalwhen assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding their frequency and severity in a long-term perspective. Recent international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatiotemporal scales. Here we provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer (June-August) temperature fields back to 755 CE based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on BHM and composite-plus-scaling (CPS). Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Both CPS and BHM reconstructions indicate that the mean 20th century European summer temperature was not significantly different from some earlier centuries, including the 1st, 2nd, 8th and 10th centuries CE. The 1st century (in BHM also the 10th century) may even have been slightly warmer than the 20th century, but the difference is not statistically significant. Comparing each 50 yr period with the 1951-2000 period reveals a similar pattern. Recent summers, however, have been unusually warm in the context of the last two millennia and there are no 30 yr periods in either reconstruction that exceed the mean average European summer temperature of the last 3 decades (1986-2015 CE). A comparison with an ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the reconstructed European summer temperature variability over the period 850-2000 CE reflects changes in both internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales. For pan-European temperatures we find slightly better agreement between the reconstruction and the model simulations with high-end estimates for total solar irradiance. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and the Little Ice Age are larger in the reconstructions than the simulations. This may indicate inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity and processes to changes in external forcing on the simulated European climate and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales.

Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Abstract: Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris, Carlos Gay García, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Kevin Hennessy, Saleemul Huq, Roger Jones, Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, David Karoly, Richard Klein, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Rodel Lasco, Geoff Love, Xianfu Lu, Graciela Magrín, Luis José Mata, Roger McLean, Bettina Menne, Guy Midgley, Nobuo Mimura, Monirul Qader Mirza, José Moreno, Linda Mortsch, Isabelle Niang-Diop, Robert Nicholls, Béla Nováky, Leonard Nurse, Anthony Nyong, Michael Oppenheimer, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Anand Patwardhan, Patricia Romero Lankao, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Stephen Schneider, Serguei Semenov, Joel Smith, John Stone, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, David Vaughan, Coleen Vogel, Thomas Wilbanks, Poh Poh Wong, Shaohong Wu, Gary Yohe

Karst Hydrogeology and Geomorphology

Abstract: CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION TO KARST. 1.1 Definitions. 1.2 The Relationship Between Karst And General Geomorphology And Hydrogeology. 1.3 The Global Distribution Of Karst. 1.4 The Growth Of Ideas. 1.5 Aims Of The Book. 1.6 Karst Terminology. CHAPTER 2. THE KARST ROCKS. 2.1 Carbonate Rocks And Minerals. 2.2 Limestone Compositions And Depositional Facies. 2.3 Limestone Diagenesis And The Formation Of Dolomite. 2.4 The Evaporite Rocks. 2.5. Quartzites And Siliceous Sandstones. 2.6 Effects Of Lithologic Properties Upon Karst Development. 2.7 Interbedded Clastic Rocks. 2.8 Bedding Planes, Joints, Faults And Fracture Traces. 2.9 Fold Topography. 2.10 Paleokarst Unconformities. CHAPTER 3. DISSOLUTION: CHEMICAL AND KINETIC BEHAVIOUR OF THE KARST ROCKS. 3.1 Introduction. 3.2 Aqueous Solutions And Chemical Equilibria. 3.3 The Dissolution Of Anhydrite, Gypsum And Salt. 3.4 The Dissolution Of Silica. 3.5 Bicarbonate Equilibria And The Dissolution Of Carbonate Rocks In Normal Meteoric Waters. 3.6 The S-O-H System And The Dissolution Of Carbonate Rocks. 3.7 Chemical Complications In Carbonate Dissolution. 3.8 Biokarst Processes. 3.9 Measurements In The Field And Lab Computer Programs. 3.10 Dissolution And Precipitation Kinetics Of Karst Rocks. CHAPTER 4. DISTRIBUTION AND RATE OF KARST DENUDATION. 4.1 Global Variations In The Solutional Denudation Of Carbonate Terrains. 4.2 Measurement And Calculation Of Solutional Denudation Rates. 4.3 Solution Rates In Gypsum, Salt And Other Non-Carbonate Rocks. 4.4 Interpretation Of Measurements. CHAPTER 5. KARST HYDROLOGY. 5.1 Basic Hydrological Concepts, Terms And Definitions. 5.2 Controls On The Development Of Karst Hydrologic Systems. 5.3 Energy Supply And Flow Network Development. 5.4 Development Of The Water Table And Phreatic Zones. 5.5 Development Of The Vadose Zone. 5.6 Classification And Characteristics Of Karst Aquifers. 5.7 Applicability Of Darcy's Law To Karst. 5.8 The Fresh Water/Salt Water Interface. CHAPTER 6. ANALYSIS OF KARST DRAINAGE SYSTEMS. 6.1 The 'Grey Box' Nature Of Karst. 6.2 Surface Exploration And Survey Techniques. 6.3 Investigating Recharge And Percolation In The Vadose Zone. 6.4 Borehole Analysis. 6.5 Spring Hydrograph Analysis. 6.6 Polje Hydrograph Analysis. 6.7 Spring Chemograph Interpretation. 6.8 Storage Volumes And Flow Routing Under Different States Of The Hydrograph. 6.9 Interpreting The Organisation Of A Karst Aquifer. 6.10 Water Tracing Techniques. 6.11 Computer Modelling Of Karst Aquifers. CHAPTER 7. SPELEOGENESIS: THE DEVELOPMENT OF CAVE SYSTEMS. 7.1 Classifying Cave Systems. 7.2 Building The Plan Patterns Of Unconfined Caves. 7.3 Unconfined Cave Development In Length And Depth. 7.4 System Modifications Occurring Within A Single Phase. 7.5 Multi-Phase Cave Systems. 7.6 Meteoric Water Caves Developed Where There Is Confined Circulation Or Basal Injection Of Water. 7.7 Hypogene Caves: (A) Hydrothermal Caves Associated Chiefly With Co2. 7.8 Hypogene Caves: (B) Caves Formed By Waters Containing H2s. 7.9 Sea Coast Eogenetic Caves. 7.10 Passage Cross-Sections And Smaller Features Of Erosional Morphology. 7.11 Condensation, Condensation Corrosion, And Weathering In Caves. 7.12 Breakdown In Caves. CHAPTER 8. CAVE INTERIOR DEPOSITS. 8.1 Introduction. 8.2 Clastic Sediments. 8.3 Calcite, Aragonite And Other Carbonate Precipitates. 8.4 Other Cave Minerals. 8.5 Ice In Caves. 8.6 Dating Of Calcite Speleothems And Other Cave Deposits. 8.7 Paleo-Environmental Analysis Of Calcite Speleothems. 8.8 Mass Flux Through A Cave System: The Example Of Friar's Hole, W.Va. CHAPTER 9. KARST LANDFORM DEVELOPMENT IN HUMID REGIONS. 9.1 Coupled Hydrological And Geochemical Systems. 9.2 Small Scale Solution Sculpture - Microkarren And Karren. 9.3 Dolines - The 'Diagnostic' Karst Landform? 9.4 The Origin And Development Of Solution Dolines. 9.5 The Origin Of Collapse And Subsidence Depressions. 9.6 Polygonal Karst. 9.7 Morphometric Analysis Of Solution Dolines. 9.8 Landforms Associated With Allogenic Inputs. 9.9 Karst Poljes. 9.10 Corrosional Plains And Shifts In Baselevel. 9.11 Residual Hills On Karst Plains. 9.12 Depositional And Constructional Karst Features. 9.13 Special Features Of Evaporite Terrains. 9.14 Karstic Features Of Quartzose And Other Rocks. 9.15 Sequences Of Carbonate Karst Evolution In Humid Terrains. CHAPTER 10.THE INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE, CLIMATIC CHANGE AND OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ON KARST DEVELOPMENT. 10.1 The Precepts Of Climatic Geomorphology. 10.2 The Hot Arid Extreme. 10.3 The Cold Extreme: 1 Karst Development In Glaciated Terrains. 10.4 The Cold Extreme: 2 Karst Development In Permafrozen Terrains. 10.5 Sea Level Changes, Tectonic Movement And Implications For Coastal Karst Development. 10.6 Polycyclic, Polygenetic And Exhumed Karsts. CHAPTER 11. KARST WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT. 11.1 Water Resources And Sustainable Yields. 11.2 Determination Of Available Water Resources. 11.3 Karst Hydrogeological Mapping. 11.4 Human Impacts On Karst Water. 11.5 Groundwater Vulnerability, Protection, And Risk Mapping. 11.6 Dam Building, Leakages, Failures And Impacts. CHAPTER 12. HUMAN IMPACTS AND ENVIRONMENTAL REHABILITATION. 12.1 The Inherent Vulnerability Of Karst Systems. 12.2 Deforestation, Agricultural Impacts And Rocky Desertification. 12.3 Sinkholes Induced By De-Watering, Surcharging, Solution Mining And Other Practices On Karst. 12.4 Problems Of Construction On And In The Karst Rocks - Expect The Unexpected! 12.5 Industrial Exploitation Of Karst Rocks And Minerals. 12.6 Restoration Of Karstlands And Rehabilitation Of Limestone Quarries. 12.7 Sustainable Management Of Karst. 12.8 Scientific, Cultural And Recreational Values Of Karstlands.