Karl-Gustaf Löfgren

Bio: Karl-Gustaf Löfgren is an academic researcher from Umeå University. The author has contributed to research in topics: Welfare & Public good. The author has an hindex of 5, co-authored 14 publications receiving 429 citations. Previous affiliations of Karl-Gustaf Löfgren include Stockholm School of Economics & Center for Economic Studies.

On the Value of Changes in Life Expectancy: Blips Versus Parametric Changes

Abstract: We estimate the value of a ‘blip’, i.e. an immediate small reduction, in the hazard rate for a random sample of Swedes. Since the risk reduction is age-independent (2 ‘extra saved lives’ out of 10,000 during the next year), we can examine how the value of a statistical life varies with age. We also show how blip data can be used to obtain a lower bound for the value of a permanent change in an individual's hazard rate. The value of a life exhibits an inverted-U shape with respect to age, peaking at the age of 40, and lies within the $3 to $7 million interval where most reasonable estimates are clustered according to Viscusi's (1992) survey.

The Effects of Tariffs and Real Wages on Employment in a Barro-Grossman Model of an Open Economy

Abstract: This paper deals with the effects of tariffs, changes in real wages, and devaluations on employment in a disequilibrium model of a small open economy. It is e.g. shown that the impacts of tariffs under a flexible exchange rate regime are insensi tive to the kind of disequilibrium which prevails. The introduction of tariffs will decrease total employment. Analogous problems are analyzed under a fixed exchange rate regime. We show that the introduction of tariffs is now a better remedy against unemployment. We also indicate how changes in real wages and devaluations can be used to cure short-run unemployment.

On the Proper Treatment of Defensive Expenditures in “Green” NNP Measures

Abstract: In many cases, individuals are able to affect the quality of the services they derive from the environment. Often it can be fruitful to view individuals as producing services using the environment as one of several inputs. One example is provided by recreational services such as visiting a ski slope or a fishing site. In these cases, private goods and factors such as petrol and time are inputs. There are also public good inputs such as the size and the quality attributes of the site. The individual uses these private and public inputs to produce a recreational experience.

Cost-Benefit Analysis and the Environment: Recent Developments

Abstract: Environmental protection is now an integral part of public policies, at local, national and global levels. In all instances, the cost and benefits of policies and projects must be carefully weighed using a common monetary measuring rod. Yet, many different categories of benefits and cost must be evaluated, such as health impacts, property damage, ecosystem losses and other welfare effects. Furthermore, many of these benefits or damages occur over the long term, sometimes over several generations, or are irreversible (e.g. global warming, biodiversity losses). How can we evaluate these elements and give them a monetary value? How should we take into account impacts on future generations and of irreversible losses? How to deal with equity and sustainability issues? This book presents an in-depth assessment of the most recent conceptual and methodological developments in this area. It should provide a valuable reference and tool for environmental economists and policy analysts.

Eliciting public preferences for healthcare: a systematic review of techniques.

Abstract: Background Limited resources coupled with unlimited demand for healthcare mean that decisions have to be made regarding the allocation of scarce resources across competing interventions. Policy documents have advocated the importance of public views as one such criterion. In principle, the elicitation of public values represents a big step forward. However, for the exercise to be worthwhile, useful information must be obtained that is scientifically defensible, whilst decision-makers must be able and willing to use it. Aims and objectives The aim was to identify techniques that could be reasonably used to elicit public views on the provision of healthcare. Hence, the objectives were: (1) to identify research methods with the potential to take account of public views on the delivery of healthcare; (2) to identify criteria for assessing these methods; (3) to assess the methods identified according to the predefined criteria; (4) to assess the importance of public views vis-a-vis other criteria for setting priorities, as judged by a sample of decision-makers; (5) to make recommendations regarding the use of methods and future research. Methods A systematic literature review was carried out to identify methods for eliciting public views. Criteria currently used to evaluate such methods were identified. The methods identified were then evaluated according to predefined criteria. A questionnaire-based survey assessed the relative importance of public views vis-a-vis five other criteria for setting priorities: potential health gain; evidence of clinical effectiveness; budgetary impact; equity of access and health status inequalities; and quality of service. Two techniques were used: choice-based conjoint analysis and allocation of points technique. The questionnaire was sent to 143 participants. A subsample was followed up with a telephone interview. Results The methods identified were classified as quantitative or qualitative. RESULTS - QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES: Quantitative techniques, classified as ranking, rating or choice-based approaches, were evaluated according to eight criteria: validity; reproducibility; internal consistency; acceptability to respondents; cost (financial and administrative); theoretical basis; whether the technique offered a constrained choice; and whether the technique provided a strength of preference measure. Regarding ranking exercises, simple ranking exercises have proved popular, but their results are of limited use. The qualitative discriminant process has not been used to date in healthcare, but may be useful. Conjoint analysis ranking exercises did well against the above criteria. A number of rating scales were identified. The visual analogue scale has proved popular within the quality-adjusted life-year paradigm, but lacks constrained choice and may not measure strength of preference. However, conjoint analysis rating scales performed well. Methods identified for eliciting attitudes include Likert scales, the semantic differential technique, and the Guttman scale. These methods provide useful information, but do not consider strength of preference or the importance of different components within a total score. Satisfaction surveys have been frequently used to elicit public opinion. Researchers should ensure that they construct sensitive techniques, despite their limited use, or else use generic techniques where validity has already been established. Service quality (SERVQUAL) appears to be a potentially useful technique and its application should be researched. Three choice-based techniques with a limited application in healthcare are measure of value, the analytical hierarchical process and the allocation of points technique, while those more widely used, and which did well against the predefined criteria, include standard gamble, time trade-off, discrete choice conjoint analysis and willingness to pay. Little methodological work is currently available on the person trade-off. RESULTS - QUALITATIVE TECHNIQUES: Qualitative techniques were classified as either individual or group-based approaches. Individual approaches included one-to-one interviews, dyadic interviews, case study analyses, the Delphi technique and complaints procedures. Group-based methods included focus groups, concept mapping, citizens' juries, consensus panels, public meetings and nominal group techniques. Six assessment criteria were identified: validity; reliability; generalisability; objectivity; acceptability to respondents; and cost. Whilst all the methods have distinct strengths and weaknesses, there is a lot of ambiguity in the literature. Whether to use individual or group methods depends on the specific topic being discussed and the people being asked, but for both it is crucial that the interviewer/moderator remains as objective as possible. The most popular and widely used such methods were one-to-one interviews and focus groups. (ABSTRACT TRUNCATED)

Willingness to Pay for Health Protection: Inadequate Sensitivity to Probability?

Abstract: Efficient investments in health protection require valid estimates of the public's willingness to forgo consumption for diminished probabilities of death, injury, and disease. Stated valuations of risk reduction are not valid measures of economic preference if the valuations are insensitive to probability variation. This article reviews the existing literature on CV studies of reductions in health risk and finds that most studies are poorly designed to assess the sensitivity of stated valuations to changes in risk magnitude. Replication of a recent study published in this journal by Johannesson et al. (1997) demonstrates how serious the problem of insensitivity can be, even for a study that reports plausible results. New empirical results are presented from telephone surveys designed to provide internal and external tests of how WTP responds to size of risk reduction. The effect of variations in instrument design on estimated sensitivity to magnitude is examined. Overall, estimated WTP for risk reduction is inadequately sensitive to the difference in probability, that is, the magnitude of the difference in WTP for different reductions in risk is typically smaller than suggested by standard economic theory. Additional research to improve methods for communicating changes in risk is needed, and future studies of stated WTP to reduce risk should include rigorous validity checks.