Karl-Henrik Dreborg

Bio: Karl-Henrik Dreborg is an academic researcher from Swedish Defence Research Agency. The author has contributed to research in topics: Backcasting & Life-cycle assessment. The author has an hindex of 5, co-authored 7 publications receiving 1318 citations. Previous affiliations of Karl-Henrik Dreborg include Royal Institute of Technology.

Towards a user's guide to scenarios : A report on scenario types and scenario techniques

Abstract: Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to predict the future, forecasts and what-if scenarios are of interest. If the user wants to think in terms of several possible futures, perhaps in order to be able to adapt to several different types of outcomes, explorative scenarios may be useful. If the user wants to search for scenarios fulfilling specific targets, and maybe link this to actions that can be taken towards the visions, normative scenarios should be the choice. Those three approaches to scenario studies are different. By emphasising the user's perspective to scenario studies, we have argued that the choice of scenario category is not only a question of the character of the studied system. Instead, the user's world view, perceptions and aim with the study can be even more important for the choice of approach.

New tools in local energy planning: experimenting with scenarios, public participation and environmental assessment

Abstract: This article describes the development and implementation of an energy planning process in a Swedish municipality. This is a unique full scale test of the application of a number of tools for local ...

Out of the Crisis

Abstract: According to W. Edwards Deming, American companies require nothing less than a transformation of management style and of governmental relations with industry. In Out of the Crisis, originally published in 1982, Deming offers a theory of management based on his famous 14 Points for Management. Management's failure to plan for the future, he claims, brings about loss of market, which brings about loss of jobs. Management must be judged not only by the quarterly dividend, but by innovative plans to stay in business, protect investment, ensure future dividends, and provide more jobs through improved product and service. In simple, direct language, he explains the principles of management transformation and how to apply them.

The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques

Abstract: Purpose – The paper aims to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses. Design/methodology/approach – The study was carried out through an electronic search using internet search engines and online databases and indexes. Findings – The paper finds eight categories of techniques that include a total of 23 variations used to develop scenarios. There are descriptions and evaluations for each. Practical implications – Futurists can use this list to broaden their repertoire of scenario techniques. Originality/value – Scenario development is the stock-in-trade of futures studies, but no catalog of the techniques used has yet been published. This list is the start at developing a consensus list of techniques that can be refined as the field matures.

Sustainable food consumption: an overview of contemporary issues and policies

Abstract: Contemporary food production and consumption cannot be regarded as sustainable and raises problems with its wide scope involving diverse actors. Moreover, in the face of demographic change and a gr...