Author
Karl Henrik Dreborg
Bio: Karl Henrik Dreborg is an academic researcher from Swedish Defence Research Agency. The author has contributed to research in topics: Scenario planning & Scenario analysis. The author has an hindex of 7, co-authored 11 publications receiving 1000 citations.
Papers
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TL;DR: Backcasting studies typically aim at providing policy makers and an interested general public with images of the future as a background for opinion forming and decisions as discussed by the authors. And if one is inclined to see teleology as a specific form of understanding, beside causality, then backcasting becomes interesting.
696 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a backcasting approach with local stakeholders in five European cities where several Images of the Future were formulated for household consumption in sustainable cities was used to find methods for inspiring local stakeholders to participate in discussions about sustainability with a long-term perspective.
214 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a tailor-made scenario approach for climate change adaptation planning, which emphasises involvement of stakeholders in the development of socioeconomic scenarios and relates to the planning situation and interest of the planning entity.
Abstract: This paper presents a tailor-made scenario approach for climate change adaptation planning, which emphasises involvement of stakeholders in the development of socioeconomic scenarios and relates to the planning situation and interest of the planning entity. The method was developed and tested in case studies in three different sectors in Sweden (the health sector, the tourism sector and water resource management). The result of the case studies is that the tailor-made scenario approach facilitated the engagement of the local planning body in climate change adaptation and helped them to analyse consequences and possible solutions in a structured way. However, the scenarios that emerged mainly focused on socioeconomic drivers on which the planning body had a large impact or drivers that can be influenced through cooperation with other actors at the local or regional level. While this result underlines the need for local stakeholder involvement in scenario processes, it also indicates a local bias that could be remedied by a stronger representation of national and global perspectives in the scenario development process. Finally, we discuss how a “bottom-up” approach could be combined with a “consistency” approach, which points towards a possible way forward to a hybrid methodology that is compatible with the scenario framework currently being developed in connection to the fifth assessment report of the IPCC.
59 citations
TL;DR: This paper develops a systematic methodology, Scenario Diversity Analysis (SDA), which addresses the problems of broad span vs conservatism and imbalance, and generates scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different.
Abstract: Purpose – Scenarios have become a vital methodological approach in business as well as in public policy. When scenarios are used to guide analysis and decision-making, the aim is typically robustness and in this context we argue that two main problems at scenario set level is conservatism, i.e. all scenarios are close to a perceived business-as-usual trajectory and lack of balance in the sense of arbitrarily mixing some conservative and some extreme scenarios. The purpose of this paper is to address these shortcomings by proposing a methodology for generating sets of scenarios which are in a mathematical sense maximally diverse. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper, we develop a systematic methodology, Scenario Diversity Analysis (SDA), which addresses the problems of broad span vs conservatism and imbalance. From a given set of variables with associated states, SDA generates scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best span the whole set of f...
41 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, four basic principles are proposed for decision guidance on the coevolution of society and potentially disruptive technologies, and none of the four principles are considered in this paper.
33 citations
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TL;DR: The second edition of the Second Edition as mentioned in this paper is a collection of essays about philosophy and social sciences with a focus on the nature of meaningful behaviour and its relationship to the social sciences.
Abstract: Preface to the Second Edition Part 1: Philosophical Bearings 1. Aims and Strategy 2. The Underlabourer Conception of Philosophy 3. Philosophy and Science 4. The Philosopher's Concern with Language 5. Conceptual and Empirical Enquiries 6. The Pivotal Role of Epistemology in Philosophy 7. Epistemology and the Understanding of Society 8. Rules: Wittgenstein's Analysis 9. Some Misunderstandings of Wittgenstein Part 2: The Nature of Meaningful Behaviour 1. Philosophy and Sociology 2. Meaningful Behaviour 3. Activities and Precepts 4. Rules and Habits 5. Reflectiveness Part 3: The Social Studies as Science 1. J.S. Mill's 'Logic of the Moral Sciences' 2. Differences in Degree and Differences in Kind 3. Motives and Causes 4. Motives, Dispositions and Reasons 5. The Investigation of Regularities 6. Understanding Social Institutions 7. Prediction in the Social Studies Part 4: The Mind and Society 1. Pareto: Logical and Non-Logical Conduct 2. Pareto: Residues and Derivations 3. Max Weber: Verstehen and Causal Explanation 4. Max Weber: Meaningful Action and Social Action Part 5: Concepts and Actions 1. The Internality of Social Relations 2. Discursive and Non-Discursive 'Ideas' 3. The Social Sciences and History 4. Concluding Remark
1,329 citations
TL;DR: The applicability of various generating, integrating and consistency techniques for developing scenarios that provide the required knowledge in order to develop and use scenarios is discussed.
1,114 citations
TL;DR: An overview of the origins of technology roadmapping is provided by means of a brief review of the technology and knowledge management foundations of the technique in the context of the fields of technology strategy and technology transitions.
1,091 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a collective effort of scientists who have pioneered some of these tools and approaches and document essential elements for developing sustainability and how these elements relate to the application of the respective tools.
866 citations