Using epidemiological techniques for testing disease contagion, it has recently been found that in the wake of a residential burglary, the risk to nearby homes is tem- porarily elevated. This paper demonstrates the ubiquity of this phenomenon by analyzing space-time patterns of burglary in 10 areas, located in five different countries. While the precise patterns vary, for all areas, houses within 200 m of a burgled home were at an elevated risk of burglary for a period of at least two weeks. For three of the five countries, differences in these patterns may partly be explained by simple differences in target density. The findings inform theories of crime concentration and offender targeting strategies, and have implications for crime forecasting and crime reduction more generally.

/pdf/space-time-patterns-of-risk-a-cross-national-assessment-of-4eogatkrzx.pdf

Space-time patterns of risk: A cross national assessment of residential burglary victimization

The growth of intelligence‐led policing has placed even greater emphasis on the clear identification of crime hotspots as well as the choice of the crime reduction or detection strategy identified to combat a problem. Crime hotspots are becoming central to policing strategy in many locations, as they enable an operational commander to focus resources into the areas of highest need. This paper outlines the techniques used to identify the spatial and temporal components of crime hotspots, and utilizes these methods to identify three broad categories of temporal hotspot and three broad categories of spatial hotspot. These categories are described in the form of a Hotspot Matrix. Real examples show how the spatial and temporal characteristics combine within the hotspot matrix, and the paper concludes by showing how operational commanders and crime prevention practitioners might employ the hotspot matrix to determine an appropriate prevention or detection strategy.

The Hotspot Matrix: A Framework for the Spatio‐Temporal Targeting of Crime Reduction

Research from property crime studies has identified a near-repeat phenomenon, where the risk of repeat burglary victimization is transmitted from a burgled location to nearby locations for a limited amount of time. This article explores the potential for near-repeat patterns to exist in another crime type, specifically the incidence of shootings. Using new tools developed to quantify the spatio-temporal patterns of near-repeats, a study in Philadelphia, U.S.A. finds that there are elevated patterns of near-repeat shootings within 2 weeks and one city block of previous incidents. The elevated risk of a shooting during this period is found to be 33 per cent greater than expected. It is speculated that possible reasons include coercion, retaliation and escalation. Given that the study takes place against the backdrop of a police operation to mitigate retaliatory shootings, the potential for using this information to influence crime prevention policy is discussed.

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1057%2Fpalgrave.sj.8350068.pdf

Near-Repeat Patterns in Philadelphia Shootings

This report pulls together a number of research results from a variety of sources, much
of it carried out with Home Office support. The subject of the report is ‘repeat
victimisation’ – the paper describes the extent to which victims or places are
repeatedly subject to crime and speculates about the implications for prevention.
In relation to some offences the repeated vulnerability of particular individuals is self
evident – domestic violence is probably the most obvious example. But in relation to
other crimes, such as domestic burglary, attacks on schools or car crime the extent to
which repetition occurs is far from obvious but clearly shown in the report.
Some of the research had been lying in the academic arena for a long time – but its
practical significance for prevention and for policing had not been appreciated. The
reduction of repeat victimisation in its several manifestations offers a challenge to the
police and their partners in crime prevention. The report is intended to provoke
discussion and preventive action across a wide field.

Once bitten, twice bitten: repeat victimisation and its implications for crime prevention

To characterize how severe negative affect in women is reflected in objective measures of aggression and impulsivity, the aggressive and impulsive behavior of 14 hospitalized women with borderline personality disorder (BPD) was compared with that of 17 controls. In an impulsivity task, subjects experienced two sets of 50 trials during which they could choose a smaller, immediate monetary reward or a larger but progressively delayed reward. In a separate task (PSAP), subjects earned monetary reinforcers with repeated button presses, and were provoked by the subtraction of money which was blamed on a fictitious other participant. Subjects could respond by ostensibly subtracting money from the fictitious subject (the aggressive response). While selection frequency of the short-delay responses was similar in patients and controls, BPD patients responded to avoid longer delay of reward across trials, and had higher Barratt Impulsiveness Scale total scores and attentional subscale scores. BPD patients responded to the money losses with roughly three times as many aggressive responses as controls and had higher Buss-Durkee Hostility Inventory (BDHI), Brown History of Violence, and Retrospective Overt Aggression Scale scores than controls. Aggressive responding rates correlated positively with BDHI scores. These results extend previous findings that negative affect in women is reflected in laboratory behavioral measures.

Laboratory measures of aggression and impulsivity in women with borderline personality disorder.

Research has demonstrated that the probability of repeat victimization is greater than the probability of an independent offence. The time course of elevated risk has important implications for crime prevention. For burglaries, the current received wisdom is that the characteristics of homes which make burglary more probable persist over the medium and long term. Addressing the time course question, previous research by the authors examined the change in risk of repeat burglary victimization for up to twelve months after the initial offence (Polvi et al. 1990J. The study is here extended to the analysis of a four-year time period (1984 to 1987). It was found that the elevated risk of repeat burglary does not last over long time periods. Based on the present data, the risk becomes average once six months has passed and remains so subsequently. It is contended that the work should be replicated, given its surprising results. One implication of this research is that preventative action should be taken as soon as possible after a burglary. One of the criminological legacies of the late Richard Sparks was his recognition of the importance of the phenomenon of repeat crime victimization (see Sparks 1981). In essence, the probability of being victimized a second or subsequent time is several times the rate that would be expected if offences were independent events. This seems to be true across a wide range of offence types. Sparks (1981) reviews possible reasons for this phenomenon with typical wit and lucidity. The fact is usable in crime prevention terms, since concentration of preventative effort on prior victims will be more cost effective than concentration on a different group of similar size. This was the cornerstone of a recent, apparently successful, burglary prevention programme in Rochdale (Forrester et al. 1988). Put generally, we should think in terms of a continuum of crime predictability. The more exactly a crime location can be specified in advance, the greater the opportunity for prevention or detection. At one extreme, entrapment is a seductive technique because it locates a crime precisely in place and time. At the other extreme, random distribution of crime makes the allocation of prevention and detection effort maximally difficult. The heightened probability of repeat victimization serves to move the situation towards the predictable end of the continuum. To be useful, predictability has to apply in terms of both place (target) and time. Research on multiple victimization has hitherto neglected time, tending to look at elevated risk over a standard period, typically a year, rather than at any changes in risk across time. Yet the time course of elevated risk is of crucial importance to preventative effort. Specifically, over what

The time course of repeat burglary victimization

Gender differences in criminal justice: an international comparison

Research is reviewed from Canada, Great Britain, and the USA, which suggests that offenders granted parole are reconvicted less than those not so released. The competing explanations for this uniformly observed difference are evaluated. It is concluded that the most likely explanation is in terms of a treatment effect rather than a consequence of the selection of better risk prisoners alone. Something about the grant or process of parole seems to work to reduce reconviction. This could be something as disreputable as the use of delaying tactics to postpone a further conviction until after licence expiry. There could also be a negative effect of parole denial to offset any positive effect of the grant of parole. Research is suggested which would clarify these points. Assuming remaining doubts are resolved in ways favourable to parole, there appears to be some grounds for optimism for parole schemes to develop into criminal justice procedures which have the net effect of crime reduction.

Does Parole Reduce the Risk of Reconviction

A great deal of public and academic concern has been directed towards juvenile criminal involvement. In efforts to predict and control criminal behaviour, various explanations have been forwarded. A review of the literature indicates that a number of physical and psychiatric characteristics are hypothesised to be related to subsequent criminal activity. This study examines the health histories of 1647 young offenders and a matched control group of non-offenders. Information for the two groups was extracted from the records of various branches of the Saskatchewan Department of Health which contained historical data on hospital admissions and separations, outpatients services, and mental health services. Five health categories have been focused upon: trauma to the central nervous system; perinatal problems; psychiatric contacts; indicators of child abuse; and a general history of illness. A select number of health variables representing these categories were drawn from the available records and compared between the groups. Preliminary findings regarding the relationship of these health variables with juvenile justice system contacts indicated only weak or non-significant associations. One or more follow-up reports are anticipated.

Ken Pease

Papers

The time course of repeat burglary victimization

Gender differences in criminal justice: an international comparison

Does Parole Reduce the Risk of Reconviction

Health histories of juvenile offenders and a matched control group in Saskatchewan, Canada

Using routine statistics in estimating prison population for policy assessment