Kirill Y. Bulda

Bio: Kirill Y. Bulda is an academic researcher. The author has contributed to research in topics: Viral phylodynamics & Eastern european. The author has an hindex of 1, co-authored 1 publications receiving 41 citations.

SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Belarus revealed by genomic and incidence data analysis

Abstract: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been implemented worldwide to curb COVID-19 spread. Belarus is a rare case of a country with a relatively modern healthcare system, where highly limited NPIs have been enacted. Thus, investigation of Belarusian COVID-19 dynamics is essential for the local and global assessment of the impact of NPI strategies. We integrate genomic epidemiology and surveillance methods to investigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Belarus in 2020. We utilize phylodynamics, phylogeography, and probabilistic bias inference to study the virus import and export routes, the dynamics of the effective reproduction number, and the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Here we show that the estimated cumulative number of infections by June 2020 exceeds the confirmed case number by a factor of ~4 (95% confidence interval (2; 9)). Intra-country SARS-CoV-2 genomic diversity originates from at least 18 introductions from different regions, with a high proportion of regional transmissions. Phylodynamic analysis indicates a moderate reduction of the effective reproductive number after the introduction of limited NPIs, but its magnitude is lower than for developed countries with large-scale NPIs. On the other hand, the effective reproduction number estimate is comparable with that for the neighboring Ukraine, where NPIs were broader. The example of Belarus demonstrates how countries with relatively low outward population mobility continue to be integral parts of the global epidemiological environment. Comparison of the effective reproduction number dynamics for Belarus and other countries reveals the effect of different NPI strategies but also emphasizes the role of regional Eastern European sociodemographic factors in the virus spread. Belarus is one of few European countries that has enacted limited measures to contain SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. We study the genetic sequences of the SARS-CoV-2 virus circulating in Belarus and other countries in 2020 to investigate how it might have been imported into the country and spread there. We show that the virus was repeatedly imported from and exported to different regions, including a large portion of regional transmissions that occurred despite stricter measures implemented by Belarus’ neighbors. There was a moderate reduction of the virus reproductive number—a measure of virus transmission speed—after April 2020, but its magnitude was lower than for developed countries with more stringent epidemiological interventions. These findings shed light on the COVID-19 spread in Eastern Europe and highlight the impact of public health policies and of regional factors on this spread. Nemira et al. study the genomic epidemiology and phylodynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in Belarus. They identify potential introduction routes of the virus from other countries, determine that during the first wave of the pandemic the number of infections was likely several times higher than reported case numbers, and estimate the impact of early non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

A review on the cleavage priming of the spike protein on coronavirus by angiotensin-converting enzyme-2 and furin.

Abstract: The widespread antigenic changes lead to the emergence of a new type of coronavirus (CoV) called as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-CoV-2 that is immunologically different from the previous circulating species. Angiotensin-converting enzyme-2 (ACE-2) is one of the most important receptors on the cell membrane of the host cells (HCs) which its interaction with spike protein (SP) with a furin-cleavage site results in the SARS-CoV-2 invasion. Hence, in this review, we presented an overview on the interaction of ACE-2 and furin with SP. As several kinds of CoVs, from various genera, have at their S1/S2 binding site a preserved site, we further surveyed the role of furin cleavage site (FCS) on the life cycle of the CoV. Furthermore, we discussed that the small molecular inhibitors can limit the interaction of ACE-2 and furin with SP and can be used as potential therapeutic platforms to combat the spreading CoV epidemic. Finally, some ongoing challenges and future prospects for the development of potential drugs to promote targeting specific activities of the CoV were reviewed. In conclusion, this review may pave the way for providing useful information about different compounds involved in improving the effectiveness of CoV vaccine or drugs with minimum toxicity against human health.Communicated by Ramaswamy H. Sarma.

Understanding COVID-19 misinformation and vaccine hesitancy in context: Findings from a qualitative study involving citizens in Bradford, UK.

Abstract: BACKGROUND: COVID-19 vaccines can offer a route out of the pandemic, yet initial research suggests that many are unwilling to be vaccinated. A rise in the spread of misinformation is thought to have played a significant role in vaccine hesitancy. To maximize uptake, it is important to understand why misinformation has been able to take hold at this time and why it may pose a more significant problem within certain contexts. OBJECTIVE: To understand people's COVID-19 beliefs, their interactions with (mis)information during COVID-19 and attitudes towards a COVID-19 vaccine. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: Bradford, UK, was chosen as the study site to provide evidence to local decision makers. In-depth phone interviews were carried out with 20 people from different ethnic groups and areas of Bradford during Autumn 2020. Reflexive thematic analysis was conducted. RESULTS: Participants discussed a wide range of COVID-19 misinformation they had encountered, resulting in confusion, distress and mistrust. Vaccine hesitancy could be attributed to three prominent factors: safety concerns, negative stories and personal knowledge. The more confused, distressed and mistrusting participants felt about their social worlds during the pandemic, the less positive they were about a vaccine. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy needs to be understood in the context of the relationship between the spread of misinformation and associated emotional reactions. Vaccine programmes should provide a focused, localized and empathetic response to counter misinformation. PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: A rapid community and stakeholder engagement process was undertaken to identify COVID-19 priority topics important to Bradford citizens and decision makers.

Post-Traumatic Growth and Stress-Related Responses During the COVID-19 Pandemic in a National Representative Sample: The Role of Positive Core Beliefs About the World and Others.

Abstract: Given the need to understand both the negative and positive psychological consequences of the current global COVID-19 pandemic (Brewin et al. in Perspectives in Public Health https://doi.org/10.1177/1757913920957365 2020), the aim of this study was to test a cognitive model of post-traumatic symptoms (PTS) and post-traumatic growth (PTG) during confinement caused by the SARS-COV-2 epidemic. In line with cognitive models of trauma elaboration (Park in Psychological Bulletin https://doi.org/10.1037/a0018301 ), we included in our model some beliefs associated to the world (e.g., primal beliefs about a good world), to the self (e.g., death anxiety or orientation toward the future) and to others (e.g., suspiciousness or identification with humanity). To evaluate the explanatory model, a national representative sample of adults between the ages of 18 and 75 (N = 1951) was surveyed between 7th and 13th April, 2020, in the middle of a strict 7-week national confinement. Structural equation modelling yielded a very similar model to the one initially specified. The results highlight the role of both negative and positive core beliefs, which are pertinent to the current pandemic threat, in the appearance of PTS and PTG, respectively. In short, primal beliefs about a good world, openness to the future and identification with humanity were associated with PTG; while suspiciousness, intolerance of uncertainty, anxiety about death and also identification with humanity were associated with PTS and consequent impairment. This is an innovative study of different pathways to traumatic responses and growth during a pandemic. Future research is needed to replicate its findings.

Prevalence of Anosmia and Ageusia in Patients with COVID-19 at a Primary Health Center, Doha, Qatar.

Abstract: Loss of smell and taste are common complaints in patients with the COVID-19 disease. These symptoms may present alone or with other symptoms. It is of utmost importance to know their rates of occurrence for better controlling of the infection. The aim of the study was to detect the prevalence of anosmia and ageusia in individuals with COVID-19 in Al-Wajbah Primary Health Center, Doha, Qatar. This retrospective study was conducted at Al-Wajbah Primary Health Center, Doha, Qatar. The study covered the two-month period -May and June 2020. The proven cases of COVID-19 by real-time PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction) were enrolled in the study. Data regarding the age, gender, symptomatology including anosmia and ageusia, history of recent travel, smoking, past history of nasal and paranasal diseases (NPND), and severity of the disease were taken from the patients’ records. IBM- SPSS version 22 statistical software was used for the analysis of the data. Out of 141, 35 (24.82%) subject presented with anosmia, ageusia or both. Most of the patients were from age group > 30 year (n = 104, 73.76%) with nearly equal gender. The majority of the individuals were without history of recent travel (92.2%) and smoking (80.14%). Three-quarters of the patients were asymptomatic, and 51.06% with a past history of NPND. The male sex, history of recent travel, smoking, and severe course of the disease were positive, highly significant association with anosmia or ageusia. All patients returned to their normal smell and taste sensations within a mean duration of 6.89 days. Loss of taste and smell were common symptomatology of COVID-19 disease. The males, recent travel, smoking, and severe course of the disease were risk factors of the anosmia and ageusia in COVID-19 cases.

COVID-19 Pandemic: Rethinking Strategies for Resilient Urban Design, Perceptions, and Planning

Abstract: From the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis, the scientific community has been continuously trying to assess the virus, its socio-environmental impacts, regulatory/adaptation policies and plans. The emergency is to develop pandemic resilient city planning and management in order to tackle the infectious diseases during COVID-19. Such development includes the reframing of unsustainable urban patterns, hazards and social inequalities to be prepared for the emerging cases. In this study, we focus on the assessment of Disaster Risk Management (DRM), which will help to develop pandemic resilient urban strategies (response, mitigation and preparedness phase) through analyzing previously published literature. Also, short and long-term recommendations for pandemic resilience urban planning and design have been provided. In the response phase, implementation of the smart and resilient city design and policies has been highlighted to identify disease transmission. In mitigation,, new technological approaches can be adopted for better management of present and future pandemics. The physical (urban access, infrastructure, environmental factors and land use patterns) and non-physical (socio-cultural, governance and economic factors) aspects of resilient urban strategies have been focused, which may help to develop understanding of health and disaster related risks in pandemic. In the preparedness phase, proactive measures such as capacity building of people towards any outbreak and different simulation processes (models of transmission pattern) can be adopted for future pandemics. Also, we discuss about the enhancement of urban resiliency in housing, public spaces and cities that may bring the effective outcome of DRM framework to combat pandemic. The study focuses on the major lessons that can be adopted for post-pandemic urban resilient planning related to disaster management and climate change adaptation, preventing extensive challenges of sustainability apart. In the following months and years, it will be difficult to assess various changes to develop urban planning and design in the post-COVID-19 world. However, this study expresses the possibility of creating good opportunities for policy makers and city planners to undertake significant transformative and advanced actions during three different phases of DRM. This study presents a novel approach to delineate the scope of DRM framework in achieving more resilient cities to tackle future pandemics.