Showing papers by "Kyle J Foreman published in 2019"
TL;DR: Age standardised mortality rates for suicide have greatly reduced since 1990, but suicide remains an important contributor to mortality worldwide and can be targeted towards vulnerable populations if they are informed by variations in mortality rates.
Abstract: Objectives To use the estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 to describe patterns of suicide mortality globally, regionally, and for 195 countries and territories by age, sex, and Socio-demographic index, and to describe temporal trends between 1990 and 2016. Design Systematic analysis. Main outcome measures Crude and age standardised rates from suicide mortality and years of life lost were compared across regions and countries, and by age, sex, and Socio-demographic index (a composite measure of fertility, income, and education). Results The total number of deaths from suicide increased by 6.7% (95% uncertainty interval 0.4% to 15.6%) globally over the 27 year study period to 817 000 (762 000 to 884 000) deaths in 2016. However, the age standardised mortality rate for suicide decreased by 32.7% (27.2% to 36.6%) worldwide between 1990 and 2016, similar to the decline in the global age standardised mortality rate of 30.6%. Suicide was the leading cause of age standardised years of life lost in the Global Burden of Disease region of high income Asia Pacific and was among the top 10 leading causes in eastern Europe, central Europe, western Europe, central Asia, Australasia, southern Latin America, and high income North America. Rates for men were higher than for women across regions, countries, and age groups, except for the 15 to 19 age group. There was variation in the female to male ratio, with higher ratios at lower levels of Socio-demographic index. Women experienced greater decreases in mortality rates (49.0%, 95% uncertainty interval 42.6% to 54.6%) than men (23.8%, 15.6% to 32.7%). Conclusions Age standardised mortality rates for suicide have greatly reduced since 1990, but suicide remains an important contributor to mortality worldwide. Suicide mortality was variable across locations, between sexes, and between age groups. Suicide prevention strategies can be targeted towards vulnerable populations if they are informed by variations in mortality rates.
472 citations
TL;DR: Although improvements in water and sanitation remain essential, increased vaccine use and improved data and surveillance to inform vaccine rollout are likely to drive the greatest improvements in the global burden of the disease.
Abstract: Summary Background Efforts to quantify the global burden of enteric fever are valuable for understanding the health lost and the large-scale spatial distribution of the disease. We present the estimates of typhoid and paratyphoid fever burden from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, and the approach taken to produce them. Methods For this systematic analysis we broke down the relative contributions of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers by country, year, and age, and analysed trends in incidence and mortality. We modelled the combined incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers and split these total cases proportionally between typhoid and paratyphoid fevers using aetiological proportion models. We estimated deaths using vital registration data for countries with sufficiently high data completeness and using a natural history approach for other locations. We also estimated disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for typhoid and paratyphoid fevers. Findings Globally, 14·3 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 12·5–16·3) cases of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers occurred in 2017, a 44·6% (42·2–47·0) decline from 25·9 million (22·0–29·9) in 1990. Age-standardised incidence rates declined by 54·9% (53·4–56·5), from 439·2 (376·7–507·7) per 100 000 person-years in 1990, to 197·8 (172·0–226·2) per 100 000 person-years in 2017. In 2017, Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi caused 76·3% (71·8–80·5) of cases of enteric fever. We estimated a global case fatality of 0·95% (0·54–1·53) in 2017, with higher case fatality estimates among children and older adults, and among those living in lower-income countries. We therefore estimated 135·9 thousand (76·9–218·9) deaths from typhoid and paratyphoid fever globally in 2017, a 41·0% (33·6–48·3) decline from 230·5 thousand (131·2–372·6) in 1990. Overall, typhoid and paratyphoid fevers were responsible for 9·8 million (5·6–15·8) DALYs in 2017, down 43·0% (35·5–50·6) from 17·2 million (9·9–27·8) DALYs in 1990. Interpretation Despite notable progress, typhoid and paratyphoid fevers remain major causes of disability and death, with billions of people likely to be exposed to the pathogens. Although improvements in water and sanitation remain essential, increased vaccine use (including with typhoid conjugate vaccines that are effective in infants and young children and protective for longer periods) and improved data and surveillance to inform vaccine rollout are likely to drive the greatest improvements in the global burden of the disease. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
401 citations
TL;DR: This analysis aimed to provide a comparable and comprehensive estimation of the global burden of brain cancer between 1990 and 2016 and found significant geographical and regional variation in the incidence might be reflective of differences in diagnoses and reporting practices or unknown environmental and genetic risk factors.
Abstract: Summary Background Brain and CNS cancers (collectively referred to as CNS cancers) are a source of mortality and morbidity for which diagnosis and treatment require extensive resource allocation and sophisticated diagnostic and therapeutic technology. Previous epidemiological studies are limited to specific geographical regions or time periods, making them difficult to compare on a global scale. In this analysis, we aimed to provide a comparable and comprehensive estimation of the global burden of brain cancer between 1990 and 2016. Methods We report means and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) estimates for CNS cancers (according to the International Classification of Diseases tenth revision: malignant neoplasm of meninges, malignant neoplasm of brain, and malignant neoplasm of spinal cord, cranial nerves, and other parts of CNS) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016. Data sources include vital registration and cancer registry data. Mortality was modelled using an ensemble model approach. Incidence was estimated by dividing the final mortality estimates by mortality to incidence ratios. DALYs were estimated by summing years of life lost and years lived with disability. Locations were grouped into quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings In 2016, there were 330 000 (95% UI 299 000 to 349 000) incident cases of CNS cancer and 227 000 (205 000 to 241 000) deaths globally, and age-standardised incidence rates of CNS cancer increased globally by 17·3% (95% UI 11·4 to 26·9) between 1990 and 2016 (2016 age-standardised incidence rate 4·63 per 100 000 person-years [4·17 to 4·90]). The highest age-standardised incidence rate was in the highest quintile of SDI (6·91 [5·71 to 7·53]). Age-standardised incidence rates increased with each SDI quintile. East Asia was the region with the most incident cases of CNS cancer for both sexes in 2016 (108 000 [95% UI 98 000 to 122 000]), followed by western Europe (49 000 [37 000 to 54 000]), and south Asia (31 000 [29 000 to 37 000]). The top three countries with the highest number of incident cases were China, the USA, and India. CNS cancer was responsible for 7·7 million (95% UI 6·9 to 8·3) DALYs globally, a non-significant change in age-standardised DALY rate of −10·0% (−16·4 to 2·6) between 1990 and 2016. The age-standardised DALY rate decreased in the high SDI quintile (−10·0% [–27·1 to −0·1]) and high-middle SDI quintile (−10·5% [–18·4 to −1·4]) over time but increased in the low SDI quintile (22·5% [11·2 to 50·5]). Interpretation CNS cancer is responsible for substantial morbidity and mortality worldwide, and incidence increased between 1990 and 2016. Significant geographical and regional variation in the incidence of CNS cancer might be reflective of differences in diagnoses and reporting practices or unknown environmental and genetic risk factors. Future efforts are needed to analyse CNS cancer burden by subtype. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
338 citations
TL;DR: This comprehensive assessment of the burden of influenza LRTIs shows the substantial annual effect of influenza on global health, and preparedness planning for potential pandemics should not be overlooked, and vaccine use should be considered.
301 citations
TL;DR: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations as discussed by the authors.
111 citations