Kyle J Foreman

Bio: Kyle J Foreman is an academic researcher from Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. The author has contributed to research in topics: Population & Years of potential life lost. The author has an hindex of 63, co-authored 80 publications receiving 92476 citations. Previous affiliations of Kyle J Foreman include Imperial College London & University of Washington.

National and regional seasonal dynamics of all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the USA from 1980 to 2016.

Abstract: In temperate climates, winter deaths exceed summer ones. However, there is limited information on the timing and the relative magnitudes of maximum and minimum mortality, by local climate, age group, sex and medical cause of death. We used geo-coded mortality data and wavelets to analyse the seasonality of mortality by age group and sex from 1980 to 2016 in the USA and its subnational climatic regions. Death rates in men and women ≥ 45 years peaked in December to February and were lowest in June to August, driven by cardiorespiratory diseases and injuries. In these ages, percent difference in death rates between peak and minimum months did not vary across climate regions, nor changed from 1980 to 2016. Under five years, seasonality of all-cause mortality largely disappeared after the 1990s. In adolescents and young adults, especially in males, death rates peaked in June/July and were lowest in December/January, driven by injury deaths.

Burden of lower respiratory infections in the Eastern Mediterranean Region between 1990 and 2015: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study

Abstract: OBJECTIVES: We used data from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study (GBD) to calculate the burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) in the 22 countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) from 1990 to 2015. METHODS: We conducted a systematic analysis of mortality and morbidity data for LRI and its specific etiologic factors, including pneumococcus, Haemophilus influenzae type b, Respiratory syncytial virus, and influenza virus. We used modeling methods to estimate incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We calculated burden attributable to known risk factors for LRI. RESULTS: In 2015, LRIs were the fourth-leading cause of DALYs, causing 11,098,243 (95% UI 9,857,095-12,396,566) DALYs and 191,114 (95% UI 170,934-210,705) deaths. The LRI DALY rates were higher than global estimates in 2015. The highest and lowest age-standardized rates of DALYs were observed in Somalia and Lebanon, respectively. Undernutrition in childhood and ambient particulate matter air pollution in the elderly were the main risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings call for public health strategies to reduce the level of risk factors in each age group, especially vulnerable child and elderly populations.

Researchfor enhancing public health utility of national causes-of-death data

Abstract: Background: Coverage and quality of cause-of-death (CoD) data varies across countries and time. Valid, reliable, and comparable assessments of trends in causes of death from even the best systems are limited by three problems: a) changes in the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD) over time; b) the use of tabulation lists where substantial detail on causes of death is lost; and c) many deaths assigned to causes that cannot or should not be considered underlying causes of death, often called garbage codes (GCs). The Global Burden of Disease Study and the World Health Organization have developed various methods to enhance comparability of CoD data. In this study, we attempt to build on these approaches to enhance the utility of national cause-of-death data for public health analysis. Methods: Based on careful consideration of 4,434 country-years of CoD data from 145 countries from 1901 to 2008, encompassing 743 million deaths in ICD versions 1 to 10 as well as country-specific cause lists, we have developed a public health-oriented cause-of-death list. These 56 causes are organized hierarchically and encompass all deaths. Each cause has been mapped from ICD-6 to ICD-10 and, where possible, they have also been mapped to the International List of Causes of Death 1-5. We developed a typology of different classes of GCs. In each ICD revision, GCs have been identified. Target causes to which these GCs should be redistributed have been identified based on certification practice and/or pathophysiology. Proportionate redistribution, statistical models, and expert algorithms have been developed to redistribute GCs to target codes for each age-sex group. Results: The fraction of all deaths assigned to GCs varies tremendously across countries and revisions of the ICD. In general, across all country-years of data available, GCs have declined from more than 43% in ICD-7 to 24% in ICD-10. In some regions, such as Australasia, GCs in 2005 are as low as 11%, while in some developing countries, such as Thailand, they are greater than 50%. Across different age groups, the composition of GCs varies tremendously - three classes of GCs steadily increase with age, but ambiguous codes within a particular disease chapter are also common for injuries at younger ages. The impact of redistribution is to change the number of deaths assigned to particular causes for a given age-sex group. These changes alter ranks across countries for any given year by a number of different causes, change time trends, and alter the rank order of causes within a country. Conclusions: By mapping CoD through different ICD versions and redistributing GCs, we believe the public health utility of CoD data can be substantially enhanced, leading to an increased demand for higher quality CoD data from health sector decision-makers.

Adolescent health in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: findings from the global burden of disease 2015 study

Abstract: The 22 countries of the East Mediterranean Region (EMR) have large populations of adolescents aged 10-24 years. These adolescents are central to assuring the health, development, and peace of this ...