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L. Maaike Helmus

Bio: L. Maaike Helmus is an academic researcher from Simon Fraser University. The author has contributed to research in topics: Recidivism & Risk assessment. The author has an hindex of 7, co-authored 18 publications receiving 266 citations. Previous affiliations of L. Maaike Helmus include Victoria University of Wellington.

Papers
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The pervasiveness of risk assessment in correctional decision-making necessitates a better understanding of the nature of risk scales and the methods used to assess their accuracy as mentioned in this paper, and risk is a contin...
Abstract: The pervasiveness of risk assessment in correctional decision-making necessitates a better understanding of the nature of risk scales and the methods used to assess their accuracy. Risk is a contin...

85 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the testable assumption that individuals with a history of sexual crime present an enduring risk for sexual recidivism and found that the likelihood of new sexual offenses declined the longer individuals with an episodic sexual offending remain sexual offender-free in the community.
Abstract: Whereas there is a common assumption that most individuals with a criminal record can be eventually reintegrated into the community, the public has different expectations for sexual offenders. In many countries, individuals with a history of sexual offenses are subject to a wide range of long-term restrictions on housing and employment, as well as public notification measures intended to prevent them from merging unnoticed into the population of law-abiding citizens. This article examines the testable assumption that individuals with a history of sexual crime present an enduring risk for sexual recidivism. We modeled the long-term (25-year) risk of sexual recidivism in a large, combined sample (N > 7,000). We found that the likelihood of new sexual offenses declined the longer individuals with a history of sexual offending remain sexual offense-free in the community. This effect was found for all age groups and all initial risk levels. Nonsexual offending during the follow-up period increased the risk of subsequent sexual recidivism independent of the time free effect. After 10 to 15 years, most individuals with a history of sexual offenses were no more likely to commit a new sexual offense than individuals with a criminal history that did not include sexual offenses. Consequently, policies designed to manage the risk of sexual recidivism need to include mechanisms to adjust initial risk classifications and determine time periods where individuals with a history of sexual crime should be released from the conditions and restrictions associated with the “sexual offender” label.

84 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is found that the new, common STATIC risk categories not only increase concordance of risk classification (from 51% to 72%)—they also allow evaluators to make the same inferences for offenders in the same category regardless of which instrument was used to assign category membership.
Abstract: This article describes principles for developing risk category labels for criterion referenced prediction measures, and demonstrates their utility by creating new risk categories for the Static-99R and Static-2002R sexual offender risk assessment tools. Currently, risk assessments in corrections and forensic mental health are typically summarized in 1 of 3 words: low, moderate, or high. Although these risk labels have strong influence on decision makers, they are interpreted differently across settings, even among trained professionals. The current article provides a framework for standardizing risk communication by matching (a) the information contained in risk tools to (b) a broadly applicable classification of "riskiness" that is independent of any particular offender risk scale. We found that the new, common STATIC risk categories not only increase concordance of risk classification (from 51% to 72%)-they also allow evaluators to make the same inferences for offenders in the same category regardless of which instrument was used to assign category membership. More generally, we argue that the risk categories should be linked to the decisions at hand, and that risk communication can be improved by grounding these risk categories in evidence-based definitions. (PsycINFO Database Record

81 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool (CPORT) is a seven-item structured tool to assess the likelihood of future sexual offending over a 5-year fixed follow-up and was significantly predictive of these outcomes for the child pornography offenders with no known contact offenses.
Abstract: The Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool (CPORT) is a seven-item structured tool to assess the likelihood of future sexual offending over a 5-year fixed follow-up. The current study examined 5-year fixed follow-up data (15% any new sexual offense, 9% any new child pornography offense) for a validation sample of 80 men convicted of child pornography offense(s). Although statistical power was low, results were comparable with the development sample: The CPORT had slightly lower predictive accuracy for sexual recidivism for the overall group (area under the curve [AUC] = .70 vs. .74), but these values were not significantly different. Combining the development and validation samples, the CPORT predicted any sexual recidivism (AUC = .72) and child pornography recidivism specifically (AUC = .74), with similar accuracies. CPORT was also significantly predictive of these outcomes for the child pornography offenders with no known contact offenses. Strengths and weaknesses of incorporating CPORT into applied risk assessments are discussed.

32 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A new and greatly expanded field study of the predictive validity of the Static-99 as applied system-wide in Texas and the potential benefits of using statewide data to develop local norms are presented.
Abstract: The Static-99 (and revision, the Static-99R) reflect the most researched and widely used approach to sex offender risk assessment. Because the measure is so widely applied in jurisdictions beyond those on which it was developed, it becomes crucial to examine its field validity and the degree to which published norms and recidivism rates apply to other jurisdictions. We present a new and greatly expanded field study of the predictive validity (M = 5.23 years follow-up) of the Static-99 as applied system-wide in Texas (N = 34,687). Results revealed stronger predictive validity than a prior Texas field study, especially among offenders scored after the release of an updated scoring manual in 2003 (AUC = .66 to .67, d = .65 to .69), when field reliability was also stronger. But calibration analyses revealed that the Static-99R routine sample norms led to a significant overestimation of risk in Texas, especially for offenders with scores ranging from 1 to 5. We used logistic regression to develop local Texas recidivism norms (with confidence intervals) for Static-99R scores. Overall, findings highlight the importance of revisiting and updating field study findings, and the potential benefits of using statewide data to develop local norms. (PsycINFO Database Record

31 citations


Cited by
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Journal Article
TL;DR: Prospect Theory led cognitive psychology in a new direction that began to uncover other human biases in thinking that are probably not learned but are part of the authors' brain’s wiring.
Abstract: In 1974 an article appeared in Science magazine with the dry-sounding title “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases” by a pair of psychologists who were not well known outside their discipline of decision theory. In it Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman introduced the world to Prospect Theory, which mapped out how humans actually behave when faced with decisions about gains and losses, in contrast to how economists assumed that people behave. Prospect Theory turned Economics on its head by demonstrating through a series of ingenious experiments that people are much more concerned with losses than they are with gains, and that framing a choice from one perspective or the other will result in decisions that are exactly the opposite of each other, even if the outcomes are monetarily the same. Prospect Theory led cognitive psychology in a new direction that began to uncover other human biases in thinking that are probably not learned but are part of our brain’s wiring.

4,351 citations

01 Jan 2016
TL;DR: This application applied longitudinal data analysis modeling change and event occurrence will help people to enjoy a good book with a cup of tea in the afternoon instead of juggling with some harmful bugs inside their desktop computer.
Abstract: Thank you very much for downloading applied longitudinal data analysis modeling change and event occurrence. As you may know, people have search hundreds times for their chosen novels like this applied longitudinal data analysis modeling change and event occurrence, but end up in malicious downloads. Rather than enjoying a good book with a cup of tea in the afternoon, instead they juggled with some harmful bugs inside their desktop computer.

822 citations

Book
01 Jan 2005
TL;DR: The recent rise and fall of American violence has been discussed in this paper, where the authors present an economic model of recent trends in violence in the US, including the rise and decline of hard drugs, drug markets, and violence in inner-city New York.
Abstract: 1. The recent rise and fall of American violence 2. Some recent trends in US violence 3. Guns and gun violence 4. The limited importance of prison expansion 5. Patterns in adult homicide 6. The rise and decline of hard drugs, drug markets, and violence in inner-city New York 7. Have changes in policing reduced violent crime 8. An economic model of recent trends in violence 9. Demographics and US Homicide.

318 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Overall, the risk of sexual recidivism was highest during the first few years after release, and decreased substantially the longer individuals remained sex offense–free in the community, particularly for high-risk sexual offenders.
Abstract: This study examined the extent to which sexual offenders present an enduring risk for sexual recidivism over a 20-year follow-up period. Using an aggregated sample of 7,740 sexual offenders from 21 samples, the yearly recidivism rates were calculated using survival analysis. Overall, the risk of sexual recidivism was highest during the first few years after release, and decreased substantially the longer individuals remained sex offense-free in the community. This pattern was particularly strong for the high-risk sexual offenders (defined by Static-99R scores). Whereas the 5-year sexual recidivism rate for high-risk sex offenders was 22% from the time of release, this rate decreased to 4.2% for the offenders in the same static risk category who remained offense-free in the community for 10 years. The recidivism rates of the low-risk offenders were consistently low (1%-5%) for all time periods. The results suggest that offense history is a valid, but time-dependent, indicator of the propensity to sexually reoffend. Further research is needed to explain the substantial rate of desistance by high-risk sexual offenders.

138 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: An estimate of the U.S. economic impact of child sexual abuse (CSA) is provided and it is hoped the availability of credible and contemporary estimates will support increased attention to primary prevention of CSA.

98 citations