2 1 The innovative transport systems and the CityMobil project 10 1.1 The research questions 10 2 The state of art in the field of automatic transport systems 12 2.1 Case studies and demand studies for innovative transport systems 12 3 The design and implementation of surveys 14 3.1 Definition of experimental design 14 3.2 Questionnaire design and delivery 16 3.3 First analyses on the collected sample 18 4 Calibration of Logit Multionomial demand models 21 4.1 Methodology 21 4.2 Calibration of the “full” model. 22 4.3 Calibration of the “final” model 24 4.4 The demand analysis through the final Multinomial Logit model 25 5 The analysis of interaction between the demand and socioeconomic attributes 31 5.1 Methodology 31 5.2 Application of Mixed Logit models to the demand 31 5.3 Analysis of the interactions between demand and socioeconomic attributes through Mixed Logit models 32 5.4 Mixed Logit model and interaction between age and the demand for the CTS 38 5.5 Demand analysis with Mixed Logit model 39 6 Final analyses and conclusions 45 6.1 Comparison between the results of the analyses 45 6.2 Conclusions 48 6.3 Answers to the research questions and future developments 52

The European commission

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(15)01024-7.pdf

Breastfeeding in the 21st century: epidemiology, mechanisms, and lifelong effect

A common approach to evaluating robustness to omitted variable bias is to observe coefficient movements after inclusion of controls. This is informative only if selection on observables is informative about selection on unobservables. Although this link is known in theory in existing literature, very few empirical articles approach this formally. I develop an extension of the theory that connects bias explicitly to coefficient stability. I show that it is necessary to take into account coefficient and R-squared movements. I develop a formal bounding argument. I show two validation exercises and discuss application to the economics literature. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

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Unobservable Selection and Coefficient Stability: Theory and Evidence

Riedel DJ, Gonzalez-Cuyar LF, Zhao XF, Redfi eld RR, Gilliam BL. Plasmablastic lymphoma of the oral cavity: a rapidly progressive lymphoma associated with HIV infection. Lancet Infect Dis 2008; 8: 261–67. In this Grand Round, the references for the sentence “Occasionally, CD138-negative plasmablastic lymphoma cases (such as this case) have been reported” (page 265) should be 32, 34, and 38. Book Systematic reviews: CRD’s guidance for undertaking reviews in health care

/pdf/systematic-reviews-crd-s-guidance-for-undertaking-reviews-in-4hcrkbrbv4.pdf

Systematic reviews: CRD's guidance for undertaking reviews in health care

Healthcare professionals frequently advise patients to improve their health by stopping smoking. Such advice may be brief, or part of more intensive interventions.
 
The aims of this review were to assess the effectiveness of advice from physicians in promoting smoking cessation; to compare minimal interventions by physicians with more intensive interventions; to assess the effectiveness of various aids to advice in promoting smoking cessation, and to determine the effect of anti-smoking advice on disease-specific and all-cause mortality.

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Physician advice for smoking cessation

BACKGROUND: Tobacco smoking in pregnancy remains one of the few preventable factors associated with complications in pregnancy, low birthweight, preterm birth and has serious long-term health implications for women and babies. Smoking in pregnancy is decreasing in high-income countries and increasing in low- to middle-income countries and is strongly associated with poverty, low educational attainment, poor social support and psychological illness. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of smoking cessation interventions during pregnancy on smoking behaviour and perinatal health outcomes. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched the Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group's Trials Register (June 2008), the Cochrane Tobacco Addiction Group's Trials Register (June 2008), EMBASE, PsycLIT, and CINAHL (all from January 2003 to June 2008). We contacted trial authors to locate additional unpublished data. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials where smoking cessation during pregnancy was a primary aim of the intervention. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Trials were identified and data extracted by one person and checked by a second. Subgroup analysis was conducted to assess the effect of risk of trial bias, intensity of the intervention and main intervention strategy used. MAIN RESULTS: Seventy-two trials are included. Fifty-six randomised controlled trials (over 20,000 pregnant women) and nine cluster-randomised trials (over 5000 pregnant women) provided data on smoking cessation outcomes.There was a significant reduction in smoking in late pregnancy following interventions (risk ratio (RR) 0.94, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.93 to 0.96), an absolute difference of six in 100 women who stopped smoking during pregnancy. However, there is significant heterogeneity in the combined data (I(2) > 60%). In the trials with the lowest risk of bias, the interventions had less effect (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.94 to 0.99), and lower heterogeneity (I(2) = 36%). Eight trials of smoking relapse prevention (over 1000 women) showed no statistically significant reduction in relapse.Smoking cessation interventions reduced low birthweight (RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.95) and preterm birth (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.98), and there was a 53.91g (95% CI 10.44 g to 95.38 g) increase in mean birthweight. There were no statistically significant differences in neonatal intensive care unit admissions, very low birthweight, stillbirths, perinatal or neonatal mortality but these analyses had very limited power. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Smoking cessation interventions in pregnancy reduce the proportion of women who continue to smoke in late pregnancy, and reduce low birthweight and preterm birth. Smoking cessation interventions in pregnancy need to be implemented in all maternity care settings. Given the difficulty many pregnant women addicted to tobacco have quitting during pregnancy, population-based measures to reduce smoking and social inequalities should be supported.

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Interventions for promoting smoking cessation during pregnancy

Background: Infant mortality has shown a steady decline in recent years but a marked socioeconomic gradient persists. Antenatal care is generally thought to be an effective method of improving pregnancy outcomes, but the effectiveness of specific antenatal care programmes as a means of reducing infant mortality in socioeconomically disadvantaged and vulnerable groups of women has not been rigorously evaluated. Methods: We conducted a systematic review, focusing on evidence from high income countries, to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative models of organising or delivering antenatal care to disadvantaged and vulnerable groups of women vs. standard antenatal care. We searched Medline, Embase, Cinahl, PsychINFO, HMIC, CENTRAL, DARE, MIDIRS and a number of online resources to identify relevant randomised and observational studies. We assessed effects on infant mortality and its major medical causes (preterm birth, congenital anomalies and sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS)). Results: We identified 36 distinct eligible studies covering a wide range of interventions, including group antenatal care, clinic-based augmented care, teenage clinics, prenatal substance abuse programmes, home visiting programmes, maternal care coordination and nutritional programmes. Fifteen studies had adequate internal validity: of these, only one was considered to demonstrate a beneficial effect on an outcome of interest. Six interventions were considered ‘promising’. Conclusions: There was insufficient evidence of adequate quality to recommend routine implementation of any of the programmes as a means of reducing infant mortality in disadvantaged/vulnerable women. Several interventions merit further more rigorous evaluation.

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The effectiveness of antenatal care programmes to reduce infant mortality and preterm birth in socially disadvantaged and vulnerable women in high-income countries: a systematic review

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of infertility and the use of infertility treatment among women aged 40 –55 years. METHODS: Population-based postal questionnaire survey of UK women. Over 60 000 women randomly sampled from the 2001 electoral roll were sent a questionnaire, and those aged 55 years and under who had ever been pregnant or tried to achieve a pregnancy (n 5 6584) were asked to provide a reproductive history. RESULTS: Overall, 2.4% of women aged 40–55 years had unresolved infertility with no pregnancies, and a further 1.9% had been pregnant but not achieved a live birth. The prevalence of unresolved fertility did not differ among birth cohorts. Sixteen percent of women reported ever consulting a doctor because of infertility and 8% reported receiving treatment to conceive. Across the whole sample, 4.2% of women reported that they had achieved at least one pregnancy as a result of treatment. Compared with earlier birth cohorts, women born later were more likely to report consultations (18% versus 13%) and treatment (9% versus 6%) for infertility, and pregnancies as a result of infertility treatment (6.7% versus 2.7%). Among those who reported medical consultations, women born more recently first consulted at a later age compared with those born earlier. CONCLUSIONS: Although both the number of women seeking medical care for infertility and the proportion reporting pregnancies as a result of infertility treatment has increased, there is no evidence to support an overall increase in unresolved infertility over the past 15 years. The vast majority of women aged 40–55 who reported difficulties conceiving did have a child, or children, at some point in their lives.

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Lifetime prevalence of infertility and infertility treatment in the UK: results from a population-based survey of reproduction

Objectives To evaluate the effectiveness of inviting teenagers to general practice consultations to discuss health behaviour concerns and appropriate follow up care. Design Randomised controlled trial, with participants randomised to a consultation (intervention) or usual care (control). Questionnaires completed at baseline, 3 months, and 12 months. Setting Eight general practices in Hertfordshire, England.

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Health promotion for adolescents in primary care: randomised controlled trial.

Objectives: To identify the sociodemographic factors associated with variation in area-based breastfeeding in England; to calculate the predicted breastfeeding rates adjusted for sociodemographic variations. Design: Ecological analysis of routine data using random effects logistic regression. Setting: All 151 primary care trusts (PCTs) in England 2010–2011. Outcome measures: PCT level data on breastfeeding: initiation, any and exclusive breastfeeding at 6–8 weeks. Results: There was considerable variation in breastfeeding across PCTs (breastfeeding initiation mean 72%, range 39–93%; any breastfeeding at 6–8 weeks mean 45%, range 19–83%; exclusive breastfeeding at 6–8 weeks mean 32%, range 14–58%), with London PCTs reporting markedly higher rates. Maternal age was strongly associated with area-based breastfeeding, with a 4–6% increase in odds of breastfeeding associated with a unit increase in the percentage of older mothers. Outside London, the proportion of the local population from a Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) background, compared with those from a White British background, was associated with higher breastfeeding (1–3% increase in odds per unit increase in the proportion from a BME background). Area-based deprivation was associated with reduced odds of breastfeeding (21–32% reduced odds comparing most deprived quintile to least deprived quintile). Weaker associations were observed between sociodemographic factors and breastfeeding in London PCTs. Very few PCTs reported breastfeeding figures substantially above or below the national average, having adjusted for variations in sociodemographic factors. Conclusions: Our results show striking associations between sociodemographic factors and breastfeeding at the area level, with much of the variation in breastfeeding rates explained by the sociodemographic profile. The sociodemographic context of breastfeeding is clearly important at the area level as well as the individual level. Our findings can be used to inform decision-making relating to local priorities and service provision.

https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/bmjopen/3/6/e002765.full.pdf

Laura Oakley

Papers

Interventions for promoting smoking cessation during pregnancy

The effectiveness of antenatal care programmes to reduce infant mortality and preterm birth in socially disadvantaged and vulnerable women in high-income countries: a systematic review

Lifetime prevalence of infertility and infertility treatment in the UK: results from a population-based survey of reproduction

Health promotion for adolescents in primary care: randomised controlled trial.

Factors associated with breastfeeding in England: an analysis by primary care trust