scispace - formally typeset
Search or ask a question
Author

Lee J. Lehmkuhl

Bio: Lee J. Lehmkuhl is an academic researcher from United States Air Force Academy. The author has contributed to research in topics: Futures contract & United States Space Surveillance Network. The author has an hindex of 5, co-authored 6 publications receiving 104 citations.

Papers
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The overall problem scope was to develop an algorithm to handle major factors bearing on the combat mission planning problem while providing hook-ups for the JSTOCHWAR architecture.
Abstract: This paper describes the development of an air mission planning algorithm for the Joint Stochastic Warfare Analysis Research (JSTOCHWAR). The overall problem scope was to develop an algorithm to handle major factors bearing on the combat mission planning problem while providing hook-ups for the JSTOCHWAR architecture. Other aspects of the problem included finding the appropriate level of detail, developing a fast solving technique, and attempting to use existing data. The problem was handled by using some ideas from existing aircraft allocation algorithms and by adding some new techniques. The proposed air mission planning algorithm supplies the optimum degree of force for campaign objectives by using a mixed integer program (MIP) to allocate the optimum number and type of aircraft and munitions against each target. The MIP takes advantage of the force multiplying effects of mass and mutual support through its use of strike packages with air defense suppression and air-to-air escort aircraft. Additionally...

39 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a sensitivity analysis approach is developed using different multi-objective weights for each of several alternate futures to identify the R&D concepts that are the most robust across the alternate futures.
Abstract: The time from identification of new research and development (R&D) concepts to deployment as military weapon systems is 10–25 years. Significant uncertainties exist about future political military states of the world and the value of these future systems may depend on which state(s) of the world eventually occur. Multi-objective decision analysis can be used to evaluate the future contribution of R&D concepts to military objectives. Scenarios (or alternate futures) are a key decision analysis technique to examine the uncertain future. The standard approach to uncertainty is to identify mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive outcomes and assign probabilities to each outcome. Unfortunately, the descriptions of possible futures are seldom collectively exhaustive. A sensitivity analysis approach is developed using different multi-objective weights for each of several alternate futures. Sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the R&D concepts that are the most robust across the alternate futures. This sensitivity analysis approach has been successfully used on two major studies, SPACECAST 2020 and Air Force 2025. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

25 citations

ReportDOI
01 May 1996
TL;DR: The Air Force 2025 study as mentioned in this paper identified high-value system concepts and their enabling technologies in a way that was objective, traceable, and robust, and determined which of these concepts showed the greatest potential for enhancing future air and space capabilities and which of their embedded technologies had the highest leverage in making the high value system concepts a reality.
Abstract: : In the summer of 1995 the Air Force chief of staff tasked Air University to conduct a year-long study Air Force 2025 to "generate ideas and concepts on the capabilities the United States will require to possess the dominant air and space forces in the future, detailnew or high-leverage concepts for employing air and space power detailthe technologies required to enable the capabilities envisioned" To support this goal an operational analysis was conducted to identify high-value system concepts and their enabling technologies in a way that was objective, traceable, and robust This analysis determined which of the Air Force 2025 system concepts showed the greatest potential for enhancing future air and space capabilities and which of their embedded technologies have the highest leverage in making the high-value system concepts a reality A model, Foundations 2025 which reflected the overall values held by the Air Force 2025 participants was developed to quantify and compare different system concepts' contributions to future air and space capabilities Foundations 2025 is distinguished by the large number of system concepts that can be analyzed, the 30-year focus into the future, and the fact it was developed through a bottoms-up approach Foundations 2025 offers a potential new framework for future air and space doctrine and can be easily modified (broken into three separate models: awareness, reach, and power) by Air Force major commands for use in their mission area analysis process Thus, the model presented is an aid to current and future senior decision makers concerned with the employment of air and space power The Air Force 2025 study produced a number of excellent system concepts for employing air and space power in the future Analysis of the highest value system concepts indicated that the effort to occupy the "high ground" of the future will require air and space forces to possess increased awareness

19 citations


Cited by
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The aim of this study is to improve the accuracy of decision-making in NPD under uncertainty by identifying the decision points in the NPD process and the uncertainty factors affecting those points.

211 citations

Book ChapterDOI
01 Jan 2016
TL;DR: Four broad approaches to dealing with external uncertainties are discussed, primarily in the context of pairwise comparisons of alternatives; stochastic dominance concepts; the use of surrogate risk measures as additional decision criteria; and the integration of MCDA and scenario planning.
Abstract: Many MCDA models are based on essentially deterministic evaluations of the consequences of each action in terms of each criterion, possibly subjecting final results and recommendations to a degree of sensitivity analysis. In many situations, such an approach may be justified when the primary source of complexity in decision making relates to the multicriteria nature of the problem rather than to the stochastic nature of individual consequences. Nevertheless, situations do arise, especially in strategic planning problems, when risks and uncertainties are as critical as the issue of conflicting management goals. In such situations, more formal modelling of these uncertainties become necessary. In this paper, we start by reviewing the meaning and origin of risk and uncertainty. We recognize both internal uncertainties (related to decision maker values and judgements) and external uncertainties (related to imperfect knowledge concerning consequences of action), but for this paper focus on the latter. Four broad approaches to dealing with external uncertainties are discussed. These are multiattribute utility theory and some extensions; stochastic dominance concepts, primarily in the context of pairwise comparisons of alternatives; the use of surrogate risk measures as additional decision criteria; and the integration of MCDA and scenario planning. To a large extent, the concepts carry through to all schools of MCDA. A number of potential areas for research are identified, while some suggestions for practice are included in the final section.

175 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Two stages of decision-making are described: the identification of nondominated new product candidates and the selection of the best new product idea using an integrated approach based on a fuzzy heuristic multi-attribute utility method and a hierarchical fuzzy TOPSIS method.

170 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: An exhaustive survey of decision analysis applications published in the period 1990-2001 in major English-language operations research and closely related journals concludes that the overall rate of publication of decisionAnalysis applications has increased and both the mix of application areas and the specific aspects of decisionanalysis that are emphasized in applications publications have shifted somewhat.
Abstract: This article identifies, and provides perspective on, trends and developments in decision analysis applications, based primarily on an exhaustive survey of decision analysis applications published in the period 1990-2001 in major English-language operations research and closely related journals. It serves as a guide to those interested in recent applications in specific areas or in applications that illustrate the use of particular methods. We compare the characteristics of the applications articles surveyed here with those of applications articles appearing in a similar set of journals between 1970 and 1989 and conclude that the overall rate of publication of decision analysis applications has increased. In addition, we find that both the mix of application areas and the specific aspects of decision analysis that are emphasized in applications publications have shifted somewhat. We also identify and discuss noteworthy trends in, and developments affecting, published applications, including those in computer software and software-related tools, decision conferencing, stochastic trees, value-focused thinking, normative systems, organizational processes, and real options. We highlight several award-winning decision analysis applications and discuss formation of a new practitioner-oriented professional group. Finally, we present some concerns and thoughts on future needs for advancing decision analysis practice.

161 citations