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Lex Bouwman

Bio: Lex Bouwman is an academic researcher from Utrecht University. The author has contributed to research in topics: Climate change & Greenhouse gas. The author has an hindex of 31, co-authored 54 publications receiving 6887 citations. Previous affiliations of Lex Bouwman include Ocean University of China & Wageningen University and Research Centre.


Papers
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Journal ArticleDOI
10 Oct 2014-Science
TL;DR: A comprehensive mid-term assessment of progress toward 20 biodiversity-related “Aichi Targets” to be achieved within a decade is provided using 55 indicator data sets and pinpoints the problems and areas that will need the most attention in the next few years.
Abstract: In 2010, the international community, under the auspices of the Convention on Biological Diversity, agreed on 20 biodiversity-related “Aichi Targets” to be achieved within a decade. We provide a comprehensive mid-term assessment of progress toward these global targets using 55 indicator data sets. We projected indicator trends to 2020 using an adaptive statistical framework that incorporated the specific properties of individual time series. On current trajectories, results suggest that despite accelerating policy and management responses to the biodiversity crisis, the impacts of these efforts are unlikely to be reflected in improved trends in the state of biodiversity by 2020. We highlight areas of societal endeavor requiring additional efforts to achieve the Aichi Targets, and provide a baseline against which to assess future progress.

970 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The number of published N2O and NO emissions measurements is increasing steadily, providing additional information about driving factors of these emissions and allowing an improvement of statistical N-emission models as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: The number of published N2O and NO emissions measurements is increasing steadily, providing additional information about driving factors of these emissions and allowing an improvement of statistical N-emission models. We summarized information from 1008 N2O and 189 NO emission measurements for agricultural fields, and 207 N2O and 210 NO measurements for soils under natural vegetation. The factors that significantly influence agricultural N2O emissions were N application rate, crop type, fertilizer type, soil organic C content, soil pH and texture, and those for NO emissions include N application rate, soil N content and climate. Compared to an earlier analysis the 20% increase in the number of N2O measurements for agriculture did not yield more insight or reduced uncertainty, because the representation of environmental and management conditions in agro-ecosystems did not improve, while for NO emissions the additional measurements in agricultural systems did yield a considerable improvement. N2O emissions from soils under natural vegetation are significantly influenced by vegetation type, soil organic C content, soil pH, bulk density and drainage, while vegetation type and soil C content are major factors for NO emissions. Statistical models of these factors were used to calculate global annual emissions from fertilized cropland (3.3 Tg N2O-N and 1.4 Tg NO-N) and grassland (0.8 Tg N2O-N and 0.4 Tg NO-N). Global emissions were not calculated for soils under natural vegetation due to lack of data for many vegetation types.

913 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Alternative management of livestock production systems shows that combinations of intensification, better integration of animal manure in crop production, and matching N and P supply to livestock requirements can effectively reduce nutrient flows.
Abstract: Crop-livestock production systems are the largest cause of human alteration of the global nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycles. Our comprehensive spatially explicit inventory of N and P budgets in livestock and crop production systems shows that in the beginning of the 20th century, nutrient budgets were either balanced or surpluses were small; between 1900 and 1950, global soil N surplus almost doubled to 36 trillion grams (Tg)·y−1 and P surplus increased by a factor of 8 to 2 Tg·y−1. Between 1950 and 2000, the global surplus increased to 138 Tg·y−1 of N and 11 Tg·y−1 of P. Most surplus N is an environmental loss; surplus P is lost by runoff or accumulates as residual soil P. The International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science, and Technology for Development scenario portrays a world with a further increasing global crop (+82% for 2000–2050) and livestock production (+115%); despite rapidly increasing recovery in crop (+35% N recovery and +6% P recovery) and livestock (+35% N and P recovery) production, global nutrient surpluses continue to increase (+23% N and +54% P), and in this period, surpluses also increase in Africa (+49% N and +236% P) and Latin America (+75% N and +120% P). Alternative management of livestock production systems shows that combinations of intensification, better integration of animal manure in crop production, and matching N and P supply to livestock requirements can effectively reduce nutrient flows. A shift in human diets, with poultry or pork replacing beef, can reduce nutrient flows in countries with intensive ruminant production.

824 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explored the potential impact of dietary changes on achieving ambitious climate stabilization levels and found that a global food transition to less meat, or even a complete switch to plant-based protein food, can have a dramatic effect on land use.
Abstract: Climate change mitigation policies tend to focus on the energy sector, while the livestock sector receives surprisingly little attention, despite the fact that it accounts for 18% of the greenhouse gas emissions and for 80% of total anthropogenic land use. From a dietary perspective, new insights in the adverse health effects of beef and pork have lead to a revision of meat consumption recommendations. Here, we explored the potential impact of dietary changes on achieving ambitious climate stabilization levels. By using an integrated assessment model, we found a global food transition to less meat, or even a complete switch to plant-based protein food to have a dramatic effect on land use. Up to 2,700 Mha of pasture and 100 Mha of cropland could be abandoned, resulting in a large carbon uptake from regrowing vegetation. Additionally, methane and nitrous oxide emission would be reduced substantially. A global transition to a low meat-diet as recommended for health reasons would reduce the mitigation costs to achieve a 450 ppm CO2-eq. stabilisation target by about 50% in 2050 compared to the reference case. Dietary changes could therefore not only create substantial benefits for human health and global land use, but can also play an important role in future climate change mitigation policies.

722 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe the possible developments in global energy use and production, land use, emissions and climate changes following the SSP1 storyline, a development consistent with the green growth (or sustainable development) paradigm (a more inclusive development respecting environmental boundaries).
Abstract: This paper describes the possible developments in global energy use and production, land use, emissions and climate changes following the SSP1 storyline, a development consistent with the green growth (or sustainable development) paradigm (a more inclusive development respecting environmental boundaries). The results are based on the implementation using the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model and are compared with a) other IMAGE implementations of the SSPs (SSP2 and SSP3) and b) the SSP1 implementation of other integrated assessment models. The results show that a combination of resource efficiency, preferences for sustainable production methods and investment in human development could lead to a strong transition towards a more renewable energy supply, less land use and lower anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2100 than in 2010, even in the absence of explicit climate policies. At the same time, climate policy would still be needed to reduce emissions further, in order to reduce the projected increase of global mean temperature from 3 °C (SSP1 reference scenario) to 2 or 1.5 °C (in line with current policy targets). The SSP1 storyline could be a basis for further discussions on how climate policy can be combined with achieving other societal goals.

492 citations


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Journal ArticleDOI
13 Feb 2015-Science
TL;DR: An updated and extended analysis of the planetary boundary (PB) framework and identifies levels of anthropogenic perturbations below which the risk of destabilization of the Earth system (ES) is likely to remain low—a “safe operating space” for global societal development.
Abstract: The planetary boundaries framework defines a safe operating space for humanity based on the intrinsic biophysical processes that regulate the stability of the Earth system. Here, we revise and update the planetary boundary framework, with a focus on the underpinning biophysical science, based on targeted input from expert research communities and on more general scientific advances over the past 5 years. Several of the boundaries now have a two-tier approach, reflecting the importance of cross-scale interactions and the regional-level heterogeneity of the processes that underpin the boundaries. Two core boundaries—climate change and biosphere integrity—have been identified, each of which has the potential on its own to drive the Earth system into a new state should they be substantially and persistently transgressed.

7,169 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Food in the Anthropocene : the EAT-Lancet Commission on healthy diets from sustainable food systems focuses on meat, fish, vegetables and fruit as sources of protein.

4,710 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compared the natural and anthropogenic controls on the conversion of unreactive N2 to more reactive forms of nitrogen (Nr) and found that human activities increasingly dominate the N budget at the global and at most regional scales, and the terrestrial and open ocean N budgets are essentially dis-connected.
Abstract: This paper contrasts the natural and anthropogenic controls on the conversion of unreactive N2 to more reactive forms of nitrogen (Nr). A variety of data sets are used to construct global N budgets for 1860 and the early 1990s and to make projections for the global N budget in 2050. Regional N budgets for Asia, North America, and other major regions for the early 1990s, as well as the marine N budget, are presented to highlight the dominant fluxes of nitrogen in each region. Important findings are that human activities increasingly dominate the N budget at the global and at most regional scales, the terrestrial and open ocean N budgets are essentially dis- connected, and the fixed forms of N are accumulating in most environmental reservoirs. The largest uncertainties in our understanding of the N budget at most scales are the rates of natural biological nitrogen fixation, the amount of Nr storage in most environmental reservoirs, and the production rates of N2 by denitrification.

4,555 citations

Journal Article
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a document, redatto, voted and pubblicato by the Ipcc -Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.
Abstract: Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.

4,187 citations

01 Jan 2015
TL;DR: The work of the IPCC Working Group III 5th Assessment report as mentioned in this paper is a comprehensive, objective and policy neutral assessment of the current scientific knowledge on mitigating climate change, which has been extensively reviewed by experts and governments to ensure quality and comprehensiveness.
Abstract: The talk with present the key results of the IPCC Working Group III 5th assessment report. Concluding four years of intense scientific collaboration by hundreds of authors from around the world, the report responds to the request of the world's governments for a comprehensive, objective and policy neutral assessment of the current scientific knowledge on mitigating climate change. The report has been extensively reviewed by experts and governments to ensure quality and comprehensiveness.

3,224 citations