Showing papers by "Lidia Morawska published in 2019"

Global, regional, and national burden of stroke, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Abstract: Summary Background Stroke is a leading cause of mortality and disability worldwide and the economic costs of treatment and post-stroke care are substantial. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic, comparable method of quantifying health loss by disease, age, sex, year, and location to provide information to health systems and policy makers on more than 300 causes of disease and injury, including stroke. The results presented here are the estimates of burden due to overall stroke and ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke from GBD 2016. Methods We report estimates and corresponding uncertainty intervals (UIs), from 1990 to 2016, for incidence, prevalence, deaths, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). DALYs were generated by summing YLLs and YLDs. Cause-specific mortality was estimated using an ensemble modelling process with vital registration and verbal autopsy data as inputs. Non-fatal estimates were generated using Bayesian meta-regression incorporating data from registries, scientific literature, administrative records, and surveys. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator generated using educational attainment, lagged distributed income, and total fertility rate, was used to group countries into quintiles. Findings In 2016, there were 5·5 million (95% UI 5·3 to 5·7) deaths and 116·4 million (111·4 to 121·4) DALYs due to stroke. The global age-standardised mortality rate decreased by 36·2% (−39·3 to −33·6) from 1990 to 2016, with decreases in all SDI quintiles. Over the same period, the global age-standardised DALY rate declined by 34·2% (−37·2 to −31·5), also with decreases in all SDI quintiles. There were 13·7 million (12·7 to 14·7) new stroke cases in 2016. Global age-standardised incidence declined by 8·1% (−10·7 to −5·5) from 1990 to 2016 and decreased in all SDI quintiles except the middle SDI group. There were 80·1 million (74·1 to 86·3) prevalent cases of stroke globally in 2016; 41·1 million (38·0 to 44·3) in women and 39·0 million (36·1 to 42·1) in men. Interpretation Although age-standardised mortality rates have decreased sharply from 1990 to 2016, the decrease in age-standardised incidence has been less steep, indicating that the burden of stroke is likely to remain high. Planned updates to future GBD iterations include generating separate estimates for subarachnoid haemorrhage and intracerebral haemorrhage, generating estimates of transient ischaemic attack, and including atrial fibrillation as a risk factor. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, regional, and national cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years for 29 cancer groups, 1990 to 2017

Abstract: Importance Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data. Objective To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning. Evidence Review We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence. Findings In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572 000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542 000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819 000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601 000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596 000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414 000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs). Conclusions and Relevance The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Abstract: Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.

Could fighting airborne transmission be the next line of defence against COVID-19 spread?

Abstract: The World Health Organization declared the infectious spread of SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) an epidemic during its initial outbreak in Wuhan (China) and has since declared it a pandemic and, more recently, an endemic infection that may remain in our communities. A vaccine for COVID-19 is expected to take several months, meaning that the spread may continue in future, in the absence of the most effective measures of social distancing and self-isolation. While these measures have worked well under lockdowns, the potential of airborne transmission of COVID-19 under the eased restrictions has not been considered important enough. We discuss the need to acknowledge the airborne spread of COVID-19 inside built spaces under eased movement restrictions and the potential steps that can be taken to control it.

Variations in coil temperature/power and e‐liquid constituents change size and lung deposition of particles emitted by an electronic cigarette

Abstract: Electronic cigarette uses propylene glycol and glycerol to deliver nicotine and flavors to the lungs. Given the hundreds of different brands, the thousands of flavors available and the variations in nicotine concentrations, it is likely that electronic cigarette settings and e-liquid composition affect the size distribution of particles emitted and ultimately pulmonary deposition. We used the inExpose e-cigarette extension to study two separate modes of operation of electronic cigarettes, namely power-controlled and the temperature-controlled. We also assessed several e-liquids based on propylene glycol and glycerol concentrations, nicotine content, and selected monomolecular flavoring agents (menthol, vanillin, and maltol). Particle size distribution was measured using a Condensation Particle Counter and a Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer spectrometer. Lung deposition was predicted using the International Commission on Radiological Protection model. For all resistance coils, increase in power delivery generated larger particles while maintaining a higher coil temperature generated smaller particles. Increase in glycerol concentration led to the generation of larger particles. With regard to flavors, we showed that despite minor effect of menthol and maltol, vanillin dramatically increased particle size. Presence of nicotine also increased particle size. Finally, particles emitted by the electronic cigarette were predicted to mainly deposit in the alveoli and conditions generating larger particle sizes led to a reduction in predicted lung deposition. This study shows that coil temperature, propylene glycol and glycerol concentrations, presence of nicotine, and flavors affect the size of particles emitted by an electronic cigarette, directly affecting predicted lung deposition of these particles.

Association Between Greenness Surrounding Schools and Kindergartens and Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder in Children in China.

Abstract: Importance Few studies have investigated the association between greenness and childhood attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Objective To evaluate the association between greenness surrounding schools or kindergartens and symptoms of ADHD in children. Design, Setting, and Participants This population-based cross-sectional study was performed between April 2012 and January 2013 in 7 cities in northeastern China. This analysis included 59 754 children (aged 2-17 years) from 94 schools and kindergartens, who had resided in the study area for 2 years or longer. Data were analyzed from April 15, 2019, to October 10, 2019. Exposures Greenness surrounding each child’s school or kindergarten was estimated using 2 satellite image–derived vegetation indexes: the normalized difference vegetation index and the soil-adjusted vegetation index. Main Outcomes and Measures Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders(Fourth Edition) scales were used to measure ADHD symptoms (9 inattention symptoms and 9 hyperactivity-impulsivity symptoms). Parents or guardians rated the frequency of each of 18 ADHD symptoms during the preceding 6 months. Children with 6 or more symptoms of either inattention or hyperactivity-impulsivity were defined as having ADHD symptoms. Generalized linear mixed models were applied to estimate the association between greenness and ADHD symptoms. Results The mean (SD) age of the 59 754 study participants was 10.3 (3.6) years, and 29 494 (49.4%) were girls. A total of 2566 participants (4.3%) had ADHD symptoms. Greenness levels differed substantially across schools and kindergartens. The normalized difference vegetation index within 500 m of a school or kindergarten ranged from −0.09 to 0.77. Greater greenness levels were associated with lower odds of ADHD symptoms. In covariate-adjusted models, a 0.1-unit increase in normalized difference vegetation index or soil-adjusted vegetation index within 500 m of a school or kindergarten was significantly associated with lower odds of ADHD symptoms (odds ratios, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.83-0.91] and 0.80 [95% CI, 0.74-0.86], respectively;P Conclusions and Relevance These findings suggest that there may be a beneficial association between school-based greenness and ADHD symptoms in Chinese children. Future longitudinal and mechanistic studies are needed to confirm the findings of this cross-sectional analysis and further explore potential mechanisms of this association.

On the interpretation of bioaerosol exposure measurements and impacts on health

Abstract: Bioaerosols are recognized as one of the main transmission routes for infectious diseases and are responsible for other various types of health effects through inhalation and potential ingestion. Associating exposure with bioaerosol and health problems is challenging, and adequate exposure monitoring is a top priority for aerosol scientists. The multiple factors affecting bioaerosol content, the variability in the focus of each bioaerosol exposure study, and the variations in experimental design and the standardization of methods make bioaerosol exposure studies very difficult. Therefore, the health impacts of bioaerosol exposure are still poorly understood. This paper presents a brief description of a state-of-the-art development in bioaerosol exposure studies supported by studies on several related subjects. The main objective of this paper is to propose new considerations for bioaerosol exposure guidelines and the development of tools and study designs to better interpret bioaerosol data. The principal observations and findings are the discrepancy of the applicable methods in bioaerosol studies that makes result comparison impossible. Furthermore, the silo mentality helps in creating a bigger gap in the knowledge accumulated about bioaerosol exposure. Innovative and original ideas are presented for aerosol scientists and health scientists to consider and discuss. Although many examples cited herein are from occupational exposure, the discussion has relevance to any human environment. This work gives concrete suggestions for how to design a full bioaerosol study that includes all of the key elements necessary to help understand the real impacts of bioaerosol exposure in the short term. The creation of the proposed bioaerosol public database could give crucial information to control the public health. Implications: How can we move toward a bioaerosol exposure guidelines? The creation of the bioaerosol public database will help accumulate information for long-term association studies and help determine specific exposure biomarkers to bioaerosols. The implementation of such work will lead to a deeper understanding and more efficient utilization of bioaerosol studies to prevent public health hazards.

Face masks could raise pollution risks

Abstract: People can get a false sense of security from flimsy gauze, and linger too long outdoors in toxic air, argue Wei Huang and Lidia Morawska. People can get a false sense of security from flimsy gauze, and linger too longoutdoors in toxic air, argue Wei Huang and Lidia Morawska.

Source specific exposure and risk assessment for indoor aerosols

Abstract: Poor air quality is a leading contributor to the global disease burden and total number of deaths worldwide. Humans spend most of their time in built environments where the majority of the inhalation exposure occurs. Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) is challenged by outdoor air pollution entering indoors through ventilation and infiltration and by indoor emission sources. The aim of this study was to understand the current knowledge level and gaps regarding effective approaches to improve IAQ. Emission regulations currently focus on outdoor emissions, whereas quantitative understanding of emissions from indoor sources is generally lacking. Therefore, specific indoor sources need to be identified, characterized, and quantified according to their environmental and human health impact. The emission sources should be stored in terms of relevant metrics and statistics in an easily accessible format that is applicable for source specific exposure assessment by using mathematical mass balance modelings. This forms a foundation for comprehensive risk assessment and efficient interventions. For such a general exposure assessment model we need 1) systematic methods for indoor aerosol emission source assessment, 2) source emission documentation in terms of relevant a) aerosol metrics and b) biological metrics, 3) default model parameterization for predictive exposure modeling, 4) other needs related to aerosol characterization techniques and modeling methods. Such a general exposure assessment model can be applicable for private, public, and occupational indoor exposure assessment, making it a valuable tool for public health professionals, product safety designers, industrial hygienists, building scientists, and environmental consultants working in the field of IAQ and health.

Low-level Summertime Isoprene Observed at a Forested Mountaintop Site in Southern China: Implications for Strong Regional Atmospheric Oxidative Capacity

Abstract: . To investigate the atmospheric oxidative capacity (AOC) in forested high mountain areas adjacent to the photochemistry-active Pearl River Delta (PRD) region in southern China, one-month online observations of isoprene and its oxidation products methyl vinyl ketone (MVK) and methacrolein (MACR) were conducted at a national background station in Nanling Mountains in summer 2016. The results showed that the observed daytime isoprene levels ( 377±46 pptv) were significantly lower in comparison with other forest sites within and outside China, although the sampling site was surrounded with subtropical evergreen broad-leaved trees which are strong isoprene emitters. Also, high daytime (MVK + MACR) ∕ isoprene ratios ( 1.9±0.5 ) were observed. Based on the observations, we hypothesized that the lower isoprene levels in the study forest might be attributable to a strong AOC in relation to the elevated regional complex air pollution. In further data analyses, high site-level concentrations of daytime OH ( 7.3 ± 0.5 × 10 6 molecules cm −3) and nighttime NO3 radicals ( 6.0 ± 0.5 × 10 8 molecules cm −3) were estimated by using a photochemical box model incorporating the master chemical mechanism (PBM-MCM), and high regional mixing ratios of OH ( 19.7 ± 2.3 × 10 6 molecules cm −3) during 09:00–15:00 LT were also obtained by applying a parameterization method with measured aromatic hydrocarbons. And besides, high initial mixing ratios ( 1213±108 pptv) and short atmospheric reaction time (0.27 h) of isoprene during the day were derived by a sequential reaction approach. All these indicate that isoprene was rapidly and highly oxidized in this forest, which supports our hypothesis. The study suggests that the complex air pollution in the PRD may have significantly elevated the background AOC of the adjacent forests, and probably affects the regional air quality and ecological environment in the long term. The feedback of forest ecosystems to the increasing AOC in southern China warrants further studies.

Cystic fibrosis pathogens survive for extended periods within cough-generated droplet nuclei

Abstract: The airborne route is a potential pathway in the person-to-person transmission of bacterial strains among cystic fibrosis (CF) populations. In this cross-sectional study, we investigate the physical properties and survival of common non-Pseudomonas aeruginosa CF pathogens generated during coughing. We conclude that Gram-negative bacteria and Staphylococcus aureus are aerosolised during coughing, can travel up to 4 m and remain viable within droplet nuclei for up to 45 min. These results suggest that airborne person-to-person transmission is plausible for the CF pathogens we measured.