Limin Ou

Bio: Limin Ou is an academic researcher from Guangzhou Medical University. The author has contributed to research in topics: Lung cancer & Medicine. The author has an hindex of 5, co-authored 8 publications receiving 872 citations.

Development and Validation of a Clinical Risk Score to Predict the Occurrence of Critical Illness in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19.

Abstract: Importance Early identification of patients with novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) who may develop critical illness is of great importance and may aid in delivering proper treatment and optimizing use of resources. Objective To develop and validate a clinical score at hospital admission for predicting which patients with COVID-19 will develop critical illness based on a nationwide cohort in China. Design, Setting, and Participants Collaborating with the National Health Commission of China, we established a retrospective cohort of patients with COVID-19 from 575 hospitals in 31 provincial administrative regions as of January 31, 2020. Epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and imaging variables ascertained at hospital admission were screened using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) and logistic regression to construct a predictive risk score (COVID-GRAM). The score provides an estimate of the risk that a hospitalized patient with COVID-19 will develop critical illness. Accuracy of the score was measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Data from 4 additional cohorts in China hospitalized with COVID-19 were used to validate the score. Data were analyzed between February 20, 2020 and March 17, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures Among patients with COVID-19 admitted to the hospital, critical illness was defined as the composite measure of admission to the intensive care unit, invasive ventilation, or death. Results The development cohort included 1590 patients. the mean (SD) age of patients in the cohort was 48.9 (15.7) years; 904 (57.3%) were men. The validation cohort included 710 patients with a mean (SD) age of 48.2 (15.2) years, and 382 (53.8%) were men and 172 (24.2%). From 72 potential predictors, 10 variables were independent predictive factors and were included in the risk score: chest radiographic abnormality (OR, 3.39; 95% CI, 2.14-5.38), age (OR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01-1.05), hemoptysis (OR, 4.53; 95% CI, 1.36-15.15), dyspnea (OR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.18-3.01), unconsciousness (OR, 4.71; 95% CI, 1.39-15.98), number of comorbidities (OR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.27-2.00), cancer history (OR, 4.07; 95% CI, 1.23-13.43), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.02-1.10), lactate dehydrogenase (OR, 1.002; 95% CI, 1.001-1.004) and direct bilirubin (OR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.06-1.24). The mean AUC in the development cohort was 0.88 (95% CI, 0.85-0.91) and the AUC in the validation cohort was 0.88 (95% CI, 0.84-0.93). The score has been translated into an online risk calculator that is freely available to the public (http://118.126.104.170/) Conclusions and Relevance In this study, a risk score based on characteristics of COVID-19 patients at the time of admission to the hospital was developed that may help predict a patient’s risk of developing critical illness.

Comorbidity and its impact on 1,590 patients with COVID-19 in China: A Nationwide Analysis

Abstract: Objective To evaluate the spectrum of comorbidities and its impact on the clinical outcome in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Design Retrospective case studies Setting 575 hospitals in 31 province/autonomous regions/provincial municipalities across China Participants 1,590 laboratory-confirmed hospitalized patients. Data were collected from November 21st, 2019 to January 31st, 2020. Main outcomes and measures Epidemiological and clinical variables (in particular, comorbidities) were extracted from medical charts. The disease severity was categorized based on the American Thoracic Society guidelines for community-acquired pneumonia. The primary endpoint was the composite endpoints, which consisted of the admission to intensive care unit (ICU), or invasive ventilation, or death. The risk of reaching to the composite endpoints was compared among patients with COVID-19 according to the presence and number of comorbidities. Results Of the 1,590 cases, the mean age was 48.9 years. 686 patients (42.7%) were females. 647 (40.7%) patients were managed inside Hubei province, and 1,334 (83.9%) patients had a contact history of Wuhan city. Severe cases accounted for 16.0% of the study population. 131 (8.2%) patients reached to the composite endpoints. 399 (25.1%) reported having at least one comorbidity. 269 (16.9%), 59 (3.7%), 30 (1.9%), 130 (8.2%), 28 (1.8%), 24 (1.5%), 21 (1.3%), 18 (1.1%) and 3 (0.2%) patients reported having hypertension, cardiovascular diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, diabetes, hepatitis B infections, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney diseases, malignancy and immunodeficiency, respectively. 130 (8.2%) patients reported having two or more comorbidities. Patients with two or more comorbidities had significantly escalated risks of reaching to the composite endpoint compared with those who had a single comorbidity, and even more so as compared with those without (all P Conclusion Comorbidities are present in around one fourth of patients with COVID-19 in China, and predispose to poorer clinical outcomes. Highlights What is already known on this topic -Since November 2019, the rapid outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has recently become a public health emergency of international concern. There have been 79,331 laboratory-confirmed cases and 2,595 deaths globally as of February 25th, 2020 -Previous studies have demonstrated the association between comorbidities and other severe acute respiratory diseases including SARS and MERS. -No study with a nationwide representative cohort has demonstrated the spectrum of comorbidities and the impact of comorbidities on the clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. What this study adds -In this nationwide study with 1,590 patients with COVID-19, comorbidities were identified in 399 patients. Comorbidities of COVID-19 mainly included hypertension, cardiovascular diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, diabetes, hepatitis B infections, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney diseases, malignancy and immunodeficiency. -The presence of as well as the number of comorbidities predicted the poor clinical outcomes (admission to intensive care unit, invasive ventilation, or death) of COVID-19. -Comorbidities should be taken into account when estimating the clinical outcomes of patients with COVID-19 on hospital admission.

Early triage of critically ill COVID-19 patients using deep learning

Abstract: The sudden deterioration of patients with novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) into critical illness is of major concern. It is imperative to identify these patients early. We show that a deep learning-based survival model can predict the risk of COVID-19 patients developing critical illness based on clinical characteristics at admission. We develop this model using a cohort of 1590 patients from 575 medical centers, with internal validation performance of concordance index 0.894 We further validate the model on three separate cohorts from Wuhan, Hubei and Guangdong provinces consisting of 1393 patients with concordance indexes of 0.890, 0.852 and 0.967 respectively. This model is used to create an online calculation tool designed for patient triage at admission to identify patients at risk of severe illness, ensuring that patients at greatest risk of severe illness receive appropriate care as early as possible and allow for effective allocation of health resources.

An annual review of the remarkable advances in lung cancer clinical research in 2019.

Abstract: In recent years, lung cancer has become the most common cancer and the leading cause of deaths attributed to cancer. In China, lung cancer is the third leading cause of death after strokes and ischemic heart disease. This review aimed to provide an up-to-date summary of studies in regard to lung cancer in 2019 and to present the remarkable progress seen in lung cancer clinical research. A systematic search of PubMed and Web of Science for research published in 2019 was conducted using the search terms "lung cancer", "early stage", "advanced", "diagnosis", "treatment", or any combination of these terms. We selected 56 studies that we considered to be significant and have presented their major findings. In summary, survival among lung cancer patients was significantly improved compared with historical controls, turning lung cancer from an incurable disease into a chronic disease. In addition, treating lung cancer has become increasingly comprehensive, diversified, and individualized. Exploring the accurate biomarkers in immunotherapy and the mechanism of drug resistance in targeted therapy constitutes the greatest challenge at this stage.

DNA methylation markers that correlate with occult lymph node metastases of non-small cell lung cancer and a preliminary prediction model.

Abstract: Background Lymph node (LN) metastasis status is the most important prognostic factor and determines treatment strategy. Methylation alteration is an optimal candidate to trace the signal from early stage tumors due to its early existence, multiple loci and stability in blood. We built a diagnostic tool to screen and identify a set of plasma methylation markers in early stage occult LN metastasis. Methods High-throughput targeted methylation sequencing was performed on tissue and matched plasma samples from a cohort of 119 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients with a primary lesion of less than 3.0 cm in diameter. The methylation profiles were compared between patients with and without occult LN metastases. We carried out a set of machine-learning analyses on our discovery cohort to evaluate the utility of cell free DNA methylation profiles in early detection of LN metastasis. Two preliminary prognostic models predictive of LN metastasis were built by random forest with differentially methylated markers shared by plasma and tissue samples and markers present either in plasma or tissue samples respectively. The performance of these models was then evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) statistics derived from ten-fold cross validation repeated ten times. Results Within this cohort, 27 cases (27/119, 22.7%) were found to have occult LN metastases found by pathological examination. Compared with those without metastases, 878 and 52 genes were differentially methylated in terms of tissue (MTA3, MIR548H4, HIST3H2A, etc.) and plasma (CIRBP, CHGB, FCHO1, etc.) respectively. 19 of these genes (ICAM1, EPH4, COCH, etc.) were overlapped. We selected 22 pairs of cases with or without occult LN metastasis by matching gender, age, smoking history and tumor histology to build and test the plasma model. The AUC of the preliminary prediction model using markers shared by plasma and tissue samples and markers present either in plasma or tissue samples is 88.6% (95% CI, 87.8-89.4%) and 74.9% (95% CI, 72.2-77.6%) respectively. Conclusions We identified a set of specific plasma methylation markers for early occult LN metastasis of NSCLC and established a preliminary non-invasive blood diagnostic tool.

Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study

Abstract: Summary Background Since December, 2019, Wuhan, China, has experienced an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 have been reported but risk factors for mortality and a detailed clinical course of illness, including viral shedding, have not been well described. Methods In this retrospective, multicentre cohort study, we included all adult inpatients (≥18 years old) with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 from Jinyintan Hospital and Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital (Wuhan, China) who had been discharged or had died by Jan 31, 2020. Demographic, clinical, treatment, and laboratory data, including serial samples for viral RNA detection, were extracted from electronic medical records and compared between survivors and non-survivors. We used univariable and multivariable logistic regression methods to explore the risk factors associated with in-hospital death. Findings 191 patients (135 from Jinyintan Hospital and 56 from Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital) were included in this study, of whom 137 were discharged and 54 died in hospital. 91 (48%) patients had a comorbidity, with hypertension being the most common (58 [30%] patients), followed by diabetes (36 [19%] patients) and coronary heart disease (15 [8%] patients). Multivariable regression showed increasing odds of in-hospital death associated with older age (odds ratio 1·10, 95% CI 1·03–1·17, per year increase; p=0·0043), higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (5·65, 2·61–12·23; p Interpretation The potential risk factors of older age, high SOFA score, and d-dimer greater than 1 μg/mL could help clinicians to identify patients with poor prognosis at an early stage. Prolonged viral shedding provides the rationale for a strategy of isolation of infected patients and optimal antiviral interventions in the future. Funding Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences; National Science Grant for Distinguished Young Scholars; National Key Research and Development Program of China; The Beijing Science and Technology Project; and Major Projects of National Science and Technology on New Drug Creation and Development.

Prediction models for diagnosis and prognosis of covid-19: systematic review and critical appraisal

Abstract: Objective To review and appraise the validity and usefulness of published and preprint reports of prediction models for diagnosing coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in patients with suspected infection, for prognosis of patients with covid-19, and for detecting people in the general population at increased risk of covid-19 infection or being admitted to hospital with the disease. Design Living systematic review and critical appraisal by the COVID-PRECISE (Precise Risk Estimation to optimise covid-19 Care for Infected or Suspected patients in diverse sEttings) group. Data sources PubMed and Embase through Ovid, up to 1 July 2020, supplemented with arXiv, medRxiv, and bioRxiv up to 5 May 2020. Study selection Studies that developed or validated a multivariable covid-19 related prediction model. Data extraction At least two authors independently extracted data using the CHARMS (critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modelling studies) checklist; risk of bias was assessed using PROBAST (prediction model risk of bias assessment tool). Results 37 421 titles were screened, and 169 studies describing 232 prediction models were included. The review identified seven models for identifying people at risk in the general population; 118 diagnostic models for detecting covid-19 (75 were based on medical imaging, 10 to diagnose disease severity); and 107 prognostic models for predicting mortality risk, progression to severe disease, intensive care unit admission, ventilation, intubation, or length of hospital stay. The most frequent types of predictors included in the covid-19 prediction models are vital signs, age, comorbidities, and image features. Flu-like symptoms are frequently predictive in diagnostic models, while sex, C reactive protein, and lymphocyte counts are frequent prognostic factors. Reported C index estimates from the strongest form of validation available per model ranged from 0.71 to 0.99 in prediction models for the general population, from 0.65 to more than 0.99 in diagnostic models, and from 0.54 to 0.99 in prognostic models. All models were rated at high or unclear risk of bias, mostly because of non-representative selection of control patients, exclusion of patients who had not experienced the event of interest by the end of the study, high risk of model overfitting, and unclear reporting. Many models did not include a description of the target population (n=27, 12%) or care setting (n=75, 32%), and only 11 (5%) were externally validated by a calibration plot. The Jehi diagnostic model and the 4C mortality score were identified as promising models. Conclusion Prediction models for covid-19 are quickly entering the academic literature to support medical decision making at a time when they are urgently needed. This review indicates that almost all pubished prediction models are poorly reported, and at high risk of bias such that their reported predictive performance is probably optimistic. However, we have identified two (one diagnostic and one prognostic) promising models that should soon be validated in multiple cohorts, preferably through collaborative efforts and data sharing to also allow an investigation of the stability and heterogeneity in their performance across populations and settings. Details on all reviewed models are publicly available at https://www.covprecise.org/. Methodological guidance as provided in this paper should be followed because unreliable predictions could cause more harm than benefit in guiding clinical decisions. Finally, prediction model authors should adhere to the TRIPOD (transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis) reporting guideline. Systematic review registration Protocol https://osf.io/ehc47/, registration https://osf.io/wy245. Readers’ note This article is a living systematic review that will be updated to reflect emerging evidence. Updates may occur for up to two years from the date of original publication. This version is update 3 of the original article published on 7 April 2020 (BMJ 2020;369:m1328). Previous updates can be found as data supplements (https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1328/related#datasupp). When citing this paper please consider adding the update number and date of access for clarity.

Extrapulmonary manifestations of COVID-19.

Abstract: Although COVID-19 is most well known for causing substantial respiratory pathology, it can also result in several extrapulmonary manifestations. These conditions include thrombotic complications, myocardial dysfunction and arrhythmia, acute coronary syndromes, acute kidney injury, gastrointestinal symptoms, hepatocellular injury, hyperglycemia and ketosis, neurologic illnesses, ocular symptoms, and dermatologic complications. Given that ACE2, the entry receptor for the causative coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, is expressed in multiple extrapulmonary tissues, direct viral tissue damage is a plausible mechanism of injury. In addition, endothelial damage and thromboinflammation, dysregulation of immune responses, and maladaptation of ACE2-related pathways might all contribute to these extrapulmonary manifestations of COVID-19. Here we review the extrapulmonary organ-specific pathophysiology, presentations and management considerations for patients with COVID-19 to aid clinicians and scientists in recognizing and monitoring the spectrum of manifestations, and in developing research priorities and therapeutic strategies for all organ systems involved.

Diabetes is a risk factor for the progression and prognosis of COVID-19.

Abstract: Backgound To figure out whether diabetes is a risk factor influencing the progression and prognosis of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Methods A total of 174 consecutive patients confirmed with COVID-19 were studied. Demographic data, medical history, symptoms and signs, laboratory findings, chest computed tomography (CT) as well the treatment measures were collected and analysed. Results We found that COVID-19 patients without other comorbidities but with diabetes (n = 24) were at higher risk of severe pneumonia, release of tissue injury-related enzymes, excessive uncontrolled inflammation responses and hypercoagulable state associated with dysregulation of glucose metabolism. Furthermore, serum levels of inflammation-related biomarkers such as IL-6, C-reactive protein, serum ferritin and coagulation index, D-dimer, were significantly higher (P Conclusions Our data support the notion that diabetes should be considered as a risk factor for a rapid progression and bad prognosis of COVID-19. More intensive attention should be paid to patients with diabetes, in case of rapid deterioration.