Lindsay A. Turnbull

Bio: Lindsay A. Turnbull is an academic researcher from University of Oxford. The author has contributed to research in topics: Population & Biodiversity. The author has an hindex of 38, co-authored 60 publications receiving 6211 citations. Previous affiliations of Lindsay A. Turnbull include Microsoft & Imperial College London.

Are plant populations seed-limited? A review of seed sowing experiments.

Abstract: We define seed limitation to be an increase in population size following seed addition. Here, we briefly consider how theoretical models deal with seed limitation and how seed sowing experiments can be used to unravel the extent of seed limitation in natural systems. We review two types of seed addition experiments: seed augmentation studies where seeds are added to existing populations; and seed introductions where seeds are sown in unoccupied sites. Overall, approximately 50% of seed augmentation experiments show evidence of seed limitation. These studies show that seed limitation tends to occur more commonly in early successional habitats and in early successional species. Most of the studies have concentrated on simply categorising populations as seed- or microsite-limited, but we believe that seed sowing experiments could be used to reveal much more about community structure, and we discuss possible future directions. In 53% of introduction studies (where seeds were sown at sites from which the species was known to be absent) the introduced species was recorded in at least one of the experimental sites following sowing. However, of the subset of studies where both seedlings and adult plants were recorded, 64% of sites contained seedlings while only 23% contained adults. This implies that, for many species, conditions for establishment are more stringent than conditions for germination. The successful establishment of plants in unoccupied patches indicates the potential for immigration to enhance local diversity (the spatial mass effect). Few studies continued monitoring for long enough to determine whether or not self-sustaining populations were successfully established, and no study attempted to link introduction sites to a putative natural source of propagules, or considered the dynamics of the metapopulation as a whole.

Identification of 100 fundamental ecological questions

Abstract: Summary 1. Fundamental ecological research is both intrinsically interesting and provides the basic knowledge required to answer applied questions of importance to the management of the natural world. The 100th anniversary of the British Ecological Society in 2013 is an opportune moment to reflect on the current status of ecology as a science and look forward to high-light priorities for future work.

Land-use intensity and the effects of organic farming on biodiversity: a hierarchical meta-analysis

Abstract: Summary 1. The benefits of organic farming to biodiversity in agricultural landscapes continue to be hotly debated, emphasizing the importance of precisely quantifying the effect of organic vs. conventional farming. 2. We conducted an updated hierarchical meta-analysis of studies that compared biodiversity under organic and conventional farming methods, measured as species richness. We calculated effect sizes for 184 observations garnered from 94 studies, and for each study, we obtained three standardized measures reflecting land-use intensity. We investigated the stability of effect sizes through time, publication bias due to the ‘file drawer’ problem, and consider whether the current literature is representative of global organic farming patterns. 3. On average, organic farming increased species richness by about 30%. This result has been robust over the last 30 years of published studies and shows no sign of diminishing. 4. Organic farming had a greater effect on biodiversity as the percentage of the landscape consisting of arable fields increased, that is, it is higher in intensively farmed regions. The average effect size and the response to agricultural intensification depend on taxonomic group, functional group and crop type. 5. There is some evidence for publication bias in the literature; however, our results are robust to its impact. Current studies are heavily biased towards northern and western Europe and North America, while other regions with large areas of organic farming remain poorly investigated. 6. Synthesis and applications. Our analysis affirms that organic farming has large positive effects on biodiversity compared with conventional farming, but that the effect size varies with the organism group and crop studied, and is greater in landscapes with higher land-use intensity. Decisions about where to site organic farms to maximize biodiversity will, however, depend on the costs as well as the potential benefits. Current studies have been heavily biased towards agricultural systems in the developed world. We recommend that future studies pay greater attention to other regions, in particular, areas with tropical, subtropical and Mediterranean climates, in which very few studies have been conducted.

How to fit nonlinear plant growth models and calculate growth rates: an update for ecologists

Abstract: Summary 1 Plant growth is a fundamental ecological process, integrating across scales from physiology to community dynamics and ecosystem properties Recent improvements in plant growth modelling have allowed deeper understanding and more accurate predictions for a wide range of ecological issues, including competition among plants, plant–herbivore interactions and ecosystem functioning 2 One challenge in modelling plant growth is that, for a variety of reasons, relative growth rate (RGR) almost universally decreases with increasing size, although traditional calculations assume that RGR is constant Nonlinear growth models are flexible enough to account for varying growth rates 3 We demonstrate a variety of nonlinear models that are appropriate for modelling plant growth and, for each, show how to calculate function-derived growth rates, which allow unbiased comparisons among species at a common time or size We show how to propagate uncertainty in estimated parameters to express uncertainty in growth rates Fitting nonlinear models can be challenging, so we present extensive worked examples and practical recommendations, all implemented in R 4 The use of nonlinear models coupled with function-derived growth rates can facilitate the testing of novel hypotheses in population and community ecology For example, the use of such techniques has allowed better understanding of the components of RGR, the costs of rapid growth and the linkage between host and parasite growth rates We hope this contribution will demystify nonlinear modelling and persuade more ecologists to use these techniques

Linking the influence and dependence of people on biodiversity across scales

Abstract: Biodiversity enhances many of nature's benefits to people, including the regulation of climate and the production of wood in forests, livestock forage in grasslands and fish in aquatic ecosystems. Yet people are now driving the sixth mass extinction event in Earth's history. Human dependence and influence on biodiversity have mainly been studied separately and at contrasting scales of space and time, but new multiscale knowledge is beginning to link these relationships. Biodiversity loss substantially diminishes several ecosystem services by altering ecosystem functioning and stability, especially at the large temporal and spatial scales that are most relevant for policy and conservation.

The Theory of Island Biogeography

Abstract: Preface to the Princeton Landmarks in Biology Edition vii Preface xi Symbols Used xiii 1. The Importance of Islands 3 2. Area and Number of Speicies 8 3. Further Explanations of the Area-Diversity Pattern 19 4. The Strategy of Colonization 68 5. Invasibility and the Variable Niche 94 6. Stepping Stones and Biotic Exchange 123 7. Evolutionary Changes Following Colonization 145 8. Prospect 181 Glossary 185 References 193 Index 201

The European commission

Abstract: 2 1 The innovative transport systems and the CityMobil project 10 1.1 The research questions 10 2 The state of art in the field of automatic transport systems 12 2.1 Case studies and demand studies for innovative transport systems 12 3 The design and implementation of surveys 14 3.1 Definition of experimental design 14 3.2 Questionnaire design and delivery 16 3.3 First analyses on the collected sample 18 4 Calibration of Logit Multionomial demand models 21 4.1 Methodology 21 4.2 Calibration of the “full” model. 22 4.3 Calibration of the “final” model 24 4.4 The demand analysis through the final Multinomial Logit model 25 5 The analysis of interaction between the demand and socioeconomic attributes 31 5.1 Methodology 31 5.2 Application of Mixed Logit models to the demand 31 5.3 Analysis of the interactions between demand and socioeconomic attributes through Mixed Logit models 32 5.4 Mixed Logit model and interaction between age and the demand for the CTS 38 5.5 Demand analysis with Mixed Logit model 39 6 Final analyses and conclusions 45 6.1 Comparison between the results of the analyses 45 6.2 Conclusions 48 6.3 Answers to the research questions and future developments 52

Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.

Abstract: Impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita Le cause e le responsabilita dei cambiamenti climatici sono state trattate sul numero di ottobre della rivista Cda. Approfondiamo l’argomento presentando il documento: “Cambiamenti climatici 2007: impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita” votato ad aprile 2007 dal secondo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato Intergovernativo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Si tratta del secondo di tre documenti che compongono il quarto rapporto sui cambiamenti climatici.

Landscape perspectives on agricultural intensification and biodiversity – ecosystem service management

Abstract: Understanding the negative and positive effects of agricultural land use for the conservation of biodiversity, and its relation to ecosystem services, needs a landscape perspective. Agriculture can contribute to the conservation of high-diversity systems, which may provide important ecosystem services such as pollination and biological control via complementarity and sampling effects. Land-use management is often focused on few species and local processes, but in dynamic, agricultural landscapes, only a diversity of insurance species may guarantee resilience (the capacity to reorganize after disturbance). Interacting species experience their surrounding landscape at different spatial scales, which influences trophic interactions. Structurally complex landscapes enhance local diversity in agroecosystems, which may compensate for local high-intensity management. Organisms with high-dispersal abilities appear to drive these biodiversity patterns and ecosystem services, because of their recolonization ability and larger resources experienced. Agri-environment schemes (incentives for farmers to benefit the environment) need to broaden their perspective and to take the different responses to schemes in simple (high impact) and complex (low impact) agricultural landscapes into account. In simple landscapes, local allocation of habitat is more important than in complex landscapes, which are in total at risk. However, little knowledge of the relative importance of local and landscape management for biodiversity and its relation to ecosystem services make reliable recommendations difficult.