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Longfeng Ye

Bio: Longfeng Ye is an academic researcher from RMIT University. The author has contributed to research in topics: Middle income trap & Growth accounting. The author has an hindex of 5, co-authored 8 publications receiving 93 citations. Previous affiliations of Longfeng Ye include University of Western Australia & Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University.

Papers
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors propose a statistical definition of a middle income trap and derive a simple time-series test to test the existence of such a trap in 19 countries. And they find that the concept survives a rigorous scrutiny of the data, with the growth patterns of 19 countries being consistent with their definition.
Abstract: The term "middle income trap"' has been widely used in the literature, without having been clearly defined or formally tested. We propose a statistical definition of a middle income trap and derive a simple time-series test. We find that the concept survives a rigorous scrutiny of the data, with the growth patterns of 19 countries being consistent with our definition of a middle income trap.

68 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors developed a simple Malthusian growth model with continuous productivity growth and derived the stationary steady-state equilibrium using the familiar concept of β-convergence, and provided the first time-series evidence of a strong MALTHUSIAN trap that was pervasive across countries and time before the 19th century industrial revolution.

14 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
Simon Feeny1, Ankita Mishra1, Trong-Anh Trinh1, Longfeng Ye1, Anna Zhu1 
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined whether exogenous rainfall shocks experienced in early life explain variations in future formal sector employment outcomes and found that the gendered impact of rainfall shocks operates through differential effects on educational attainment and that shocks occurring in the first and second year of life are most important.
Abstract: Despite the achievement of gender equity in education in many developing countries, a gender gap still exists with respect to formal employment Through inhibiting women's empowerment and reducing the supply and productivity of labour, this gap results in poorer development outcomes This paper examines whether exogenous rainfall shocks experienced in early life explain variations in future formal sector employment outcomes It does so for Vietnam, a country that is highly vulnerable to rainfall shocks The paper employs data from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey and rainfall data from the Gridded Monthly Time Series Dataset Findings suggest that rainfall shocks experienced early in life have a long temporal reach by reducing the probability of formal sector employment for women but not for men Other findings indicate that the gendered impact of rainfall shocks operates through differential effects on educational attainment and that shocks occurring in the first and second year of life are most important

12 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This paper developed and applied a test of some necessary conditions for a country to be in a middle-income trap that take into account short-run dynamics, stochastic trends and structural breaks.
Abstract: The concept of a 'middle-income trap' has attracted enormous interest, but the existing literature lacks formal tests. We develop and apply a test of some necessary conditions for a country to be in a middle-income trap that take into account short-run dynamics, stochastic trends and structural breaks. We find that only seven countries satisfy our definition of a middle income trap.

12 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article showed that the total factor productivity gains from labor reallocation in China are an order of magnitude smaller, at only 0.25 percentage points per year, compared to the assumption of linear production functions.
Abstract: Numerous studies report the growth effects from labor reallocation in China to be in the order of 1-2 percentage points per year, which would appear to be a significant fraction of China's per capita income growth. We show that the total factor productivity gains are an order of magnitude smaller, at only 0.25 percentage points per year. There are two reasons for this difference. First, the majority of studies have used a decomposition method that effectively assumes linear production functions. This results in values that are much larger than the more appropriate Denison-Kuznets method. Second, we also allow for sectoral differences in human capital. We conclude that the gains from labor reallocation may have been a far less important source of China's growth than is conventionally thought.

9 citations


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Posted Content
TL;DR: The authors summarize the major themes and contributions driving the empirical literature since 2011 reviews, and try to interpret the literature in light of an overarching conceptual framework about how human capital is produced early in life.
Abstract: That prenatal events can have life-long consequences is now well established. Nevertheless, research on the Fetal Origins Hypothesis is flourishing and has expanded to include the early childhood (postnatal) environment. Why does this literature have a “second act?” We summarize the major themes and contributions driving the empirical literature since our 2011 reviews, and try to interpret the literature in light of an overarching conceptual framework about how human capital is produced early in life. One major finding is that relatively mild shocks in early life can have substantial negative impacts, but that the effects are often heterogeneous reflecting differences in child endowments, budget constraints, and production technologies. Moreover, shocks, investments, and interventions can interact in complex ways that are only beginning to be understood. Many advances in our knowledge are due to increasing accessibility of comprehensive administrative data that allow events in early life to be linked to long-term outcomes. Yet, we still know relatively little about the interval between, and thus about whether it would be feasible to identify and intervene with affected individuals at some point between early life and adulthood. We do know enough, however, to be able to identify some interventions that hold promise for improving child outcomes in early life and throughout the life course.Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

427 citations

Posted Content
TL;DR: This paper found that even after considering sector differences in hours worked and human capital per worker, as well as alternative measures of sector output constructed from household survey data, a puzzlingly large gap remains.
Abstract: According to national accounts data, value added per worker is much higher in the non-agricultural sector than in agriculture in the typical country, and particularly so in developing countries. Taken at face value, this "agricultural productivity gap" suggests that labor is greatly misallocated across sectors. In this paper, we draw on new micro evidence to ask to what extent the gap is still present when better measures of sector labor inputs and value added are taken into consideration. We find that even after considering sector differences in hours worked and human capital per worker, as well as alternative measures of sector output constructed from household survey data, a puzzlingly large gap remains.

144 citations

Book
01 Jan 2017
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors focus on the changing nature of international trade that can be seen only by analyzing it in terms of value added and value chains and highlight how shifting the analysis to value added radically changes the picture.
Abstract: Global value chains (GVCs) break up the production process so at different steps can be carried out in different countries. Today’s official statistical information systems, designed to measure economic activity in a pre-GVC world, have struggled to keep pace with these changes. Conventional measures of trade, important though they remain, measure the gross value of transactions between partners and so are not able to reveal how foreign producers, upstream in the value chain, are connected to final consumers at the end of the value chain. The importance of the GVC phenomenon has stimulated researchers to develop statistics and analysis based on the value added in trade. The GVC phenomenon also demands that researchers analyze the discrete tasks or phases in the production process. This first GVC development report draws on the expanding research that uses data on the value added in trade. Its main objective is to reveal the changing nature of international trade that can be seen only by analyzing it in terms of value added and value chains. This report highlights how shifting the analysis to value added radically changes the picture.

121 citations

01 Oct 2014
TL;DR: The authors found that homeowners who were victims of the 2011 Australian floods and faced large losses in property values are 50% more likely to opt for a risky gamble, such as a scratch card with a small chance of a large gain, than for a sure amount of comparable value.
Abstract: This study explores people's risk taking behaviour after having suffered large real-world losses following a natural disaster. Using the margins of the 2011 Australian floods (Brisbane) as a natural experimental setting, we find that homeowners who were victims of the floods and face large losses in property values are 50% more likely to opt for a risky gamble -- a scratch card giving a small chance of a large gain ($500,000) -- than for a sure amount of comparable value ($10). This finding is consistent with prospect theory predictions regarding the adoption of a risk-seeking attitude after a loss.

108 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors provides an overview of the recent analytical and empirical literature on middle-income traps and discusses the various arguments that have been put forward to explain the existence, and persistence, of middle income traps.
Abstract: This paper provides an overview of the recent analytical and empirical literature on middle-income traps. The first part examines the descriptive and statistical evidence on these traps. The second discusses the various arguments that have been put forward to explain the existence, and persistence, of middle-income traps. These arguments include diminishing returns to physical capital, exhaustion of cheap labor and imitation gains, insufficient quality of human capital, inadequate contract enforcement and intellectual property protection, distorted incentives and misallocation of talent, lack of access to advanced infrastructure, and lack of access to finance, especially in the form of venture capital. The third part considers public policies aimed at avoiding, and escaping from, middle-income traps. The concluding part identifies a number of directions in which the empirical and theoretical literature could fruitfully evolve.

84 citations