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Lorraine E. Flint

Bio: Lorraine E. Flint is an academic researcher from United States Geological Survey. The author has contributed to research in topics: Climate change & Groundwater recharge. The author has an hindex of 31, co-authored 81 publications receiving 4032 citations.


Papers
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A global synthesis of the findings from ∼140 recharge study areas in semi-arid and arid regions provides important information on recharge rates, controls, and processes, which are critical for sustainable water development as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: Global synthesis of the findings from ∼140 recharge study areas in semiarid and arid regions provides important information on recharge rates, controls, and processes, which are critical for sustainable water development. Water resource evaluation, dryland salinity assessment (Australia), and radioactive waste disposal (US) are among the primary goals of many of these recharge studies. The chloride mass balance (CMB) technique is widely used to estimate recharge. Average recharge rates estimated over large areas (40–374 000 km2) range from 0·2 to 35 mm year−1, representing 0·1–5% of long-term average annual precipitation. Extreme local variability in recharge, with rates up to ∼720 m year−1, results from focussed recharge beneath ephemeral streams and lakes and preferential flow mostly in fractured systems. System response to climate variability and land use/land cover (LU/LC) changes is archived in unsaturated zone tracer profiles and in groundwater level fluctuations. Inter-annual climate variability related to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) results in up to three times higher recharge in regions within the SW US during periods of frequent El Ninos (1977–1998) relative to periods dominated by La Ninas (1941–1957). Enhanced recharge related to ENSO is also documented in Argentina. Climate variability at decadal to century scales recorded in chloride profiles in Africa results in recharge rates of 30 mm year−1 during the Sahel drought (1970–1986) to 150 mm year−1 during non-drought periods. Variations in climate at millennial scales in the SW US changed systems from recharge during the Pleistocene glacial period (≥10 000 years ago) to discharge during the Holocene semiarid period. LU/LC changes such as deforestation in Australia increased recharge up to about 2 orders of magnitude. Changes from natural grassland and shrublands to dryland (rain-fed) agriculture altered systems from discharge (evapotranspiration, ET) to recharge in the SW US. The impact of LU change was much greater than climate variability in Niger (Africa), where replacement of savanna by crops increased recharge by about an order of magnitude even during severe droughts. Sensitivity of recharge to LU/LC changes suggests that recharge may be controlled through management of LU. In irrigated areas, recharge varies from 10 to 485 mm year−1, representing 1–25% of irrigation plus precipitation. However, irrigation pumpage in groundwater-fed irrigated areas greatly exceeds recharge rates, resulting in groundwater mining. Increased recharge related to cultivation has mobilized salts that accumulated in the unsaturated zone over millennia, resulting in widespread groundwater and surface water contamination, particularly in Australia. The synthesis of recharge rates provided in this study contains valuable information for developing sustainable groundwater resource programmes within the context of climate variability and LU/LC change. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

952 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a tree mortality threshold based on plant hydraulics suggests that increased drought may trigger widespread dieback in the southwestern United States by mid-century, which is the case in many parts of the world.
Abstract: Forests may be vulnerable to future droughts. A tree mortality threshold based on plant hydraulics suggests that increased drought may trigger widespread dieback in the southwestern United States by mid-century.

330 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Because climate projections show that return to present climate is highly unlikely, conservation strategies need to be built around holdouts and stepping stones, rather than low-probability microrefugia.
Abstract: Microclimates have played a critical role in past species range shifts, suggesting that they could be important in biological response to future change Terms are needed to discuss these future effects We propose that populations occupying microclimates be referred to as holdouts, stepping stones and microrefugia A holdout is a population that persists in a microclimate for a limited period of time under deteriorating climatic conditions Stepping stones successively occupy microclimates in a way that facilitates species' range shifts Microrefugia refer to populations that persist in microclimates through a period of unfavorable climate Because climate projections show that return to present climate is highly unlikely, conservation strategies need to be built around holdouts and stepping stones, rather than low-probability microrefugia

294 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: As climate-data resolution became coarser, SDMs predicted larger habitat area with diminishing spatial congruence between fine- and coarse-scale predictions, which depended on climate scenario and species' range size.
Abstract: Recent studies suggest that species distribution models (SDMs) based on fine-scale climate data may provide markedly different estimates of climate-change impacts than coarse-scale models. However, these studies disagree in their conclusions of how scale influences projected species distributions. In rugged terrain, coarse-scale climate grids may not capture topographically controlled climate variation at the scale that constitutes microhabitat or refugia for some species. Although finer scale data are therefore considered to better reflect climatic conditions experienced by species, there have been few formal analyses of how modeled distributions differ with scale. We modeled distributions for 52 plant species endemic to the California Floristic Province of different life forms and range sizes under recent and future climate across a 2000-fold range of spatial scales (0.008–16 km 2 ). We produced unique current and future climate datasets by separately downscaling 4 km climate models to three finer resolutions based on 800, 270, and 90 m digital elevation models and deriving bioclimatic predictors from them. As climate-data resolution became coarser, SDMs predicted larger habitat area with diminishing spatial congruence between fine- and coarse-scale predictions. These trends were most pronounced at the coarsest resolutions and depended on climate scenario and species’ range size. On average, SDMs projected onto 4 km climate data predicted 42% more stable habitat (the amount of spatial overlap between predicted current and future climatically suitable habitat) compared with 800 m data. We found only modest agreement between areas predicted to be stable by 90 m models generalized to 4 km grids compared with areas classified as stable based on 4 km models, suggesting that some climate refugia captured at finer scales may be missed using coarser scale data. These differences in projected locations of habitat change may have more serious implications than net habitat area when predictive maps form the basis of conservation decision making.

289 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors demonstrate the utility of a Basin Characterization Model for California (CA-BCM) to integrate high-resolution data on physical watershed characteristics with historical or projected climate data to predict watershed specific hydrologic responses to changes in key climatic drivers across variable landscape conditions.
Abstract: Resource managers need spatially explicit models of hydrologic response to changes in key climatic drivers across variable landscape conditions We demonstrate the utility of a Basin Characterization Model for California (CA-BCM) to integrate high-resolution data on physical watershed characteristics with historical or projected climate data to predict watershed-specific hydrologic responses The CA-BCM applies a monthly regional water-balance model to simulate hydrologic responses to climate at the spatial resolution of a 270-m grid The model has been calibrated using a total of 159 relatively unimpaired watersheds for the California region As a result of calibration, predicted basin discharge closely matches measured data for validation watersheds The CA-BCM recharge and runoff estimates, combined with estimates of snowpack and timing of snowmelt, provide a basis for assessing variations in water availability Another important output variable, climatic water deficit, integrates the combined effects of temperature and rainfall on site-specific soil moisture, a factor that plants may respond to more directly than air temperature and precipitation alone Model outputs are calculated for each grid cell, allowing results to be summarized for a variety of planning units including hillslopes, watersheds, ecoregions, or political boundaries The ability to confidently calculate hydrologic outputs at fine spatial scales provides a new suite of hydrologic predictor variables that can be used for a variety of purposes, such as projections of changes in water availability, environmental demand, or distribution of plants and habitats Here we present the framework of the CA-BCM model for the California hydrologic region, a test of model performance on 159 watersheds, summary results for the region for the 1981–2010 time period, and changes since the 1951–1980 time period

210 citations


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01 Jan 2016
TL;DR: The modern applied statistics with s is universally compatible with any devices to read, and is available in the digital library an online access to it is set as public so you can download it instantly.
Abstract: Thank you very much for downloading modern applied statistics with s. As you may know, people have search hundreds times for their favorite readings like this modern applied statistics with s, but end up in harmful downloads. Rather than reading a good book with a cup of coffee in the afternoon, instead they cope with some harmful virus inside their laptop. modern applied statistics with s is available in our digital library an online access to it is set as public so you can download it instantly. Our digital library saves in multiple countries, allowing you to get the most less latency time to download any of our books like this one. Kindly say, the modern applied statistics with s is universally compatible with any devices to read.

5,249 citations

Journal Article
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a document, redatto, voted and pubblicato by the Ipcc -Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.
Abstract: Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.

4,187 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors identify ten contrasting perspectives that shape the vulnerability debate but have not been discussed collectively and present a set of global vulnerability drivers that are known with high confidence: (1) droughts eventually occur everywhere; (2) warming produces hotter Droughts; (3) atmospheric moisture demand increases nonlinearly with temperature during drought; (4) mortality can occur faster in hotter Drought, consistent with fundamental physiology; (5) shorter Drought can become lethal under warming, increasing the frequency of lethal Drought; and (6) mortality happens rapidly
Abstract: Patterns, mechanisms, projections, and consequences of tree mortality and associated broad-scale forest die-off due to drought accompanied by warmer temperatures—“hotter drought”, an emerging characteristic of the Anthropocene—are the focus of rapidly expanding literature. Despite recent observational, experimental, and modeling studies suggesting increased vulnerability of trees to hotter drought and associated pests and pathogens, substantial debate remains among research, management and policy-making communities regarding future tree mortality risks. We summarize key mortality-relevant findings, differentiating between those implying lesser versus greater levels of vulnerability. Evidence suggesting lesser vulnerability includes forest benefits of elevated [CO2] and increased water-use efficiency; observed and modeled increases in forest growth and canopy greening; widespread increases in woody-plant biomass, density, and extent; compensatory physiological, morphological, and genetic mechanisms; dampening ecological feedbacks; and potential mitigation by forest management. In contrast, recent studies document more rapid mortality under hotter drought due to negative tree physiological responses and accelerated biotic attacks. Additional evidence suggesting greater vulnerability includes rising background mortality rates; projected increases in drought frequency, intensity, and duration; limitations of vegetation models such as inadequately represented mortality processes; warming feedbacks from die-off; and wildfire synergies. Grouping these findings we identify ten contrasting perspectives that shape the vulnerability debate but have not been discussed collectively. We also present a set of global vulnerability drivers that are known with high confidence: (1) droughts eventually occur everywhere; (2) warming produces hotter droughts; (3) atmospheric moisture demand increases nonlinearly with temperature during drought; (4) mortality can occur faster in hotter drought, consistent with fundamental physiology; (5) shorter droughts occur more frequently than longer droughts and can become lethal under warming, increasing the frequency of lethal drought nonlinearly; and (6) mortality happens rapidly relative to growth intervals needed for forest recovery. These high-confidence drivers, in concert with research supporting greater vulnerability perspectives, support an overall viewpoint of greater forest vulnerability globally. We surmise that mortality vulnerability is being discounted in part due to difficulties in predicting threshold responses to extreme climate events. Given the profound ecological and societal implications of underestimating global vulnerability to hotter drought, we highlight urgent challenges for research, management, and policy-making communities.

1,786 citations

01 Dec 2010
TL;DR: In this article, the authors suggest a reduction in the global NPP of 0.55 petagrams of carbon, which would not only weaken the terrestrial carbon sink, but would also intensify future competition between food demand and biofuel production.
Abstract: Terrestrial net primary production (NPP) quantifies the amount of atmospheric carbon fixed by plants and accumulated as biomass. Previous studies have shown that climate constraints were relaxing with increasing temperature and solar radiation, allowing an upward trend in NPP from 1982 through 1999. The past decade (2000 to 2009) has been the warmest since instrumental measurements began, which could imply continued increases in NPP; however, our estimates suggest a reduction in the global NPP of 0.55 petagrams of carbon. Large-scale droughts have reduced regional NPP, and a drying trend in the Southern Hemisphere has decreased NPP in that area, counteracting the increased NPP over the Northern Hemisphere. A continued decline in NPP would not only weaken the terrestrial carbon sink, but it would also intensify future competition between food demand and proposed biofuel production.

1,780 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The analysis of time series: An Introduction, 4th edn. as discussed by the authors by C. Chatfield, C. Chapman and Hall, London, 1989. ISBN 0 412 31820 2.
Abstract: The Analysis of Time Series: An Introduction, 4th edn. By C. Chatfield. ISBN 0 412 31820 2. Chapman and Hall, London, 1989. 242 pp. £13.50.

1,583 citations