As the power system is facing a transition toward a more intelligent, flexible, and interactive system with higher penetration of renewable energy generation, load forecasting, especially short-term load forecasting for individual electric customers plays an increasingly essential role in the future grid planning and operation. Other than aggregated residential load in a large scale, forecasting an electric load of a single energy user is fairly challenging due to the high volatility and uncertainty involved. In this paper, we propose a long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network-based framework, which is the latest and one of the most popular techniques of deep learning, to tackle this tricky issue. The proposed framework is tested on a publicly available set of real residential smart meter data, of which the performance is comprehensively compared to various benchmarks including the state-of-the-arts in the field of load forecasting. As a result, the proposed LSTM approach outperforms the other listed rival algorithms in the task of short-term load forecasting for individual residential households.

Short-Term Residential Load Forecasting Based on LSTM Recurrent Neural Network

Large-scale deployment of intermittent renewable energy (namely wind energy and solar PV) may entail new challenges in power systems and more volatility in power prices in liberalized electricity markets. Energy storage can diminish this imbalance, relieving the grid congestion, and promoting distributed generation. The economic implications of grid-scale electrical energy storage technologies are however obscure for the experts, power grid operators, regulators, and power producers. A meticulous techno-economic or cost-benefit analysis of electricity storage systems requires consistent, updated cost data and a holistic cost analysis framework. To this end, this study critically examines the existing literature in the analysis of life cycle costs of utility-scale electricity storage systems, providing an updated database for the cost elements (capital costs, operational and maintenance costs, and replacement costs). Moreover, life cycle costs and levelized cost of electricity delivered by electrical energy storage is analyzed, employing Monte Carlo method to consider uncertainties. The examined energy storage technologies include pumped hydropower storage, compressed air energy storage (CAES), flywheel, electrochemical batteries (e.g. lead–acid, NaS, Li-ion, and Ni–Cd), flow batteries (e.g. vanadium-redox), superconducting magnetic energy storage, supercapacitors, and hydrogen energy storage (power to gas technologies). The results illustrate the economy of different storage systems for three main applications: bulk energy storage, T&D support services, and frequency regulation.

Electrical energy storage systems: A comparative life cycle cost analysis

Simulation and the monte carlo method

Review of energy storage system for wind power integration support

Electrifying transportation is a promising approach to alleviate the climate change issue. The adoption of electric vehicle into market has introduced significant impacts on various fields, especially the power grid. Various policies have been implemented to foster the electric vehicle deployment and the increasing trend of electric vehicle adoption in the recent years has been satisfying. The continual development of electric vehicle power train, battery and charger technologies have further improved the electric vehicle technologies for wider uptake. Despite the environmental and economical benefits, electric vehicles charging introduce negative impacts on the existing network operation. Appropriate charging management strategies can be implemented to cater for this issue. Furthermore, electric vehicle integration in the smart grid can bring many potential opportunities, especially from the perspective of vehicle-to-grid technology and as the solution for the renewable energy intermittency issue. This paper reviews the latest development in electric vehicle technologies, impacts of electric vehicle roll out and opportunities brought by electric vehicle deployment.

A review on the state-of-the-art technologies of electric vehicle, its impacts and prospects

This paper proposes a new strategy to meet the controllable heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) load with a hybrid-renewable generation and energy storage system. Historical hourly wind speed, solar irradiance, and load data are used to stochastically model the wind generation, photovoltaic generation, and load. Using fuzzy C-Means (FCM) clustering, these data are grouped into 10 clusters of days with similar data points to account for seasonal variations. In order to minimize cost and increase efficiency, we use a GA-based optimization approach together with a two-point estimate method. Minimizing the cost function guarantees minimum PV and wind generation installation as well as storage capacity selection to supply the HVAC load. Different scenarios are examined to evaluate the efficiency of the system with different percentages of load shifting. The maximum capacity of the storage system and excess energy are calculated as the most important indices for energy efficiency assessment. The cumulative distribution functions of these indices are plotted and compared. A smart-grid strategy is developed for matching renewable energy generation (solar and wind) with the HVAC load.

Genetic-Algorithm-Based Optimization Approach for Energy Management

This paper deals with optimal placement of the energy storage units within a deregulated power system to minimize its hourly social cost. Wind generation and load are modeled probabilistically using actual data and a curve fitting approach. Based on a model of the electricity market, we minimize the hourly social cost using probabilistic optimal power flow (POPF) then use a genetic algorithm to maximize wind power utilization over a scheduling period. A business model is developed to evaluate the economics of the storage system based on the energy time-shift opportunity from wind generation. The proposed method is used to carry out simulation studies for the IEEE 24-bus system. Transmission line constraints are addressed as a bottleneck for efficient wind power integration with higher penetration levels. Distributed storage is then proposed as a solution to effectively utilize the transmission capacity and integrate the wind power more efficiently. The potential impact of distributed storage on wind utilization is also evaluated through several case studies.

A Framework for Optimal Placement of Energy Storage Units Within a Power System With High Wind Penetration

This paper proposes a stochastic framework for optimal sizing and reliability analysis of a hybrid power system including the renewable resources and energy storage system. Uncertainties of wind power, photovoltaic (PV) power, and load are stochastically modeled using autoregressive moving average (ARMA). A pattern search-based optimization method is used in conjunction with a sequential Monte Carlo simulation (SMCS) to minimize the system cost and satisfy the reliability requirements. The SMCS simulates the chronological behavior of the system and calculates the reliability indices from a series of simulated experiments. Load shifting strategies are proposed to provide some flexibility and reduce the mismatch between the renewable generation and heating ventilation and air conditioning loads in a hybrid power system. Different percentages of load shifting and their potential impacts on the hybrid power system reliability/cost analysis are evaluated. Using a compromise-solution method, the best compromise between the reliability and cost is realized for the hybrid power system.

Stochastic Performance Assessment and Sizing for a Hybrid Power System of Solar/Wind/Energy Storage

This paper examines the potential impact of automatic meter reading (AMR) on short-term load forecasting for a residential customer. Real-time measurement data from customers' smart meters provided by a utility company is modeled as the sum of a deterministic component and a Gaussian noise signal. The shaping filter for the Gaussian noise is calculated using spectral analysis. Kalman filtering is then used for load prediction. The accuracy of the proposed method is evaluated for different sampling periods and planning horizons. The results show that the availability of more real-time measurement data improves the accuracy of the load forecast significantly. However, the improved prediction accuracy can come at a high computational cost. Our results qualitatively demonstrate that achieving the desired prediction accuracy while avoiding a high computational load requires limiting the volume of data used for prediction. Consequently, the measurement sampling rate must be carefully selected as a compromise between these two conflicting requirements.

Smart meter based short-term load forecasting for residential customers

Integration of renewable energy resources into the power system has increased the financial and technical concerns for the market-based transmission expansion planning. This paper proposes a stochastic framework for transmission grid reinforcement studies in a power system with wind generation. A multi-stage multi-objective transmission network expansion planning (TNEP) methodology is developed which considers the investment cost, absorption of private investment and reliability of the system as the objective functions. A non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA II) optimization approach is used in combination with a probabilistic optimal power flow (POPF) to determine the Pareto optimal solutions considering the power system uncertainties. Using a compromise-solution method, the best final plan is then realized based on the decision-maker preferences. The proposed methodology is applied to the IEEE 24-bus Reliability Tests System (RTS) to evaluate the feasibility and practicality of the developed planning strategy.

M. Ghofrani

Papers

Genetic-Algorithm-Based Optimization Approach for Energy Management

A Framework for Optimal Placement of Energy Storage Units Within a Power System With High Wind Penetration

Stochastic Performance Assessment and Sizing for a Hybrid Power System of Solar/Wind/Energy Storage

Smart meter based short-term load forecasting for residential customers

A Multi-Objective Transmission Expansion Planning Framework in Deregulated Power Systems With Wind Generation