M. Noguer

Bio: M. Noguer is an academic researcher from Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. The author has contributed to research in topics: Climate change & Climate model. The author has an hindex of 11, co-authored 12 publications receiving 19538 citations. Previous affiliations of M. Noguer include Met Office.

Climate change 2001: the scientific basis

Abstract: Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.

Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Abstract: The earth’s climate system has demonstrably changed since the pre-industrial era, with some of these changes attributable to human activities. The consequences of climate change pose a serious challenge to policy-makers. Hence they need an objective source of information about climate change, its impacts and possible response options. Recognising this, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environmental Programme jointly established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988. The terms of reference of the IPCC include:

Simulation of climate change over europe using a nested regional‐climate model. I: Assessment of control climate, including sensitivity to location of lateral boundaries

Abstract: Present-day climate simulations for Europe are presented, based on a 50 km regional-climate model (RCM) driven by output from a global general-circulation model (GCM) using a one-way nesting approach. Both models are components of the Meteorological Office Unified Forecast/Climate Model and use the same subgrid-scale physics. the relationship between the RCM circulation and that of the driving GCM was assessed in seasonal RCM integrations using domains of different sizes. In the larger domains, both the mean flow and the day-to-day variability in the RCM diverge from that of the GCM on the synoptic scale, rendering the RCM solution physically inconsistent with the GCM solution external to the RCM domain. At the grid-point scale the RCM freely generates its own features, even in the smaller domains—only at points adjacent to the boundary buffer zone is there evidence of significant distortion by the lateral boundary forcing from the GCM. Using one of the smaller domains, a 10-year RCM simulation was carried out, driven by a coupled atmosphere/mixed-layer-ocean version of the GCM. Over the region of interest the general circulation and daily synoptic variability is realistically simulated by the GCM and, therefore, also by the RCM (see above). Stronger vertical motions in the RCM lead to a general increase in dynamical precipitation relative to the GCM, and thus a drier and warmer troposphere and reduced convective cloud and precipitation. Layer-cloud cover is also reduced in the RCM, due to a time-step dependence in the treatment of the dissipation of ice cloud. Significant changes occur in the surface heat balance. the spatial patterns of surface air temperature and precipitation over Europe are well simulated by both the GCM and the RCM on scales resolved by the former. At finer scales the RCM contains a strong signal which is related to orographic height. Validation against a detailed observed climatology for Great Britain demonstrates that this signal contains considerable skill.

Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Abstract: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis is the most comprehensive and up-to-date scientific assessment of past, present and future climate change. (author)

Simulation of climate change over europe using a nested regional‐climate model. II: Comparison of driving and regional model responses to a doubling of carbon dioxide

Abstract: Results are assessed from a 10-year simulation of the equilibrium response to doubled carbon dioxide (CO2) over Europe made with a nested high-resolution regional-climate model (RCM). the simulated changes are compared against those produced by the driving global general-circulation model (GCM). the domain-averaged increases in temperature and moisture content are similar in both models. Because of a stronger hydrological cycle the increases in precipitation and evaporation are larger in the RCM than in the GCM, whereas the reductions in lower and middle tropospheric relative humidity and cloud cover are smaller. The frequency of intense precipitation events increases substantially in both models; however, the fractional changes are significantly smaller in the RCM. the proportion of precipitation associated with convection also increases in both models; however, much of the increase in intense events is explained simply by increased atmospheric moisture concentrations, especially in the RCM. The time-averaged precipitation changes in the RCM contain a substantial mesoscale component on scales not resolved by the GCM. Attempts are made to reconstruct this component from the changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation using empirical relationships calibrated from the 1 x CO2 integration. These are largely unsuccessful, indicating that simple downscaling schemes to generate high-resolution scenarios of climate change from coarse-grid GCM data may be of only limited applicability. Further statistical calculations suggest that longer integrations (∼ 30 years) are needed to reduce the sampling uncertainty associated with the simulated mesoscale component to an acceptable level. The large-scale patterns of change of surface temperature and precipitation reveal significant regional contrasts which are influenced both by changes in atmospheric circulation and regional physical feedbacks. the RCM changes are similar to those of the driving GCM except in summer. the differences in the summer changes are traced to differences between the 1 x CO2 integrations, in which the influence of the lateral boundary forcing on the RCM simulation is found to be anomalously weak. It is argued that any development of significant divergence between the RCM and GCM solutions on scales resolved by the latter may imply the need to refine or replace the one-way nesting technique currently used in many regional modelling experiments.

Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century

Abstract: [1] We present the Met Office Hadley Centre's sea ice and sea surface temperature (SST) data set, HadISST1, and the nighttime marine air temperature (NMAT) data set, HadMAT1. HadISST1 replaces the global sea ice and sea surface temperature (GISST) data sets and is a unique combination of monthly globally complete fields of SST and sea ice concentration on a 1° latitude-longitude grid from 1871. The companion HadMAT1 runs monthly from 1856 on a 5° latitude-longitude grid and incorporates new corrections for the effect on NMAT of increasing deck (and hence measurement) heights. HadISST1 and HadMAT1 temperatures are reconstructed using a two-stage reduced-space optimal interpolation procedure, followed by superposition of quality-improved gridded observations onto the reconstructions to restore local detail. The sea ice fields are made more homogeneous by compensating satellite microwave-based sea ice concentrations for the impact of surface melt effects on retrievals in the Arctic and for algorithm deficiencies in the Antarctic and by making the historical in situ concentrations consistent with the satellite data. SSTs near sea ice are estimated using statistical relationships between SST and sea ice concentration. HadISST1 compares well with other published analyses, capturing trends in global, hemispheric, and regional SST well, containing SST fields with more uniform variance through time and better month-to-month persistence than those in GISST. HadMAT1 is more consistent with SST and with collocated land surface air temperatures than previous NMAT data sets.

Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Abstract: Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris, Carlos Gay García, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Kevin Hennessy, Saleemul Huq, Roger Jones, Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, David Karoly, Richard Klein, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Rodel Lasco, Geoff Love, Xianfu Lu, Graciela Magrín, Luis José Mata, Roger McLean, Bettina Menne, Guy Midgley, Nobuo Mimura, Monirul Qader Mirza, José Moreno, Linda Mortsch, Isabelle Niang-Diop, Robert Nicholls, Béla Nováky, Leonard Nurse, Anthony Nyong, Michael Oppenheimer, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Anand Patwardhan, Patricia Romero Lankao, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Stephen Schneider, Serguei Semenov, Joel Smith, John Stone, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, David Vaughan, Coleen Vogel, Thomas Wilbanks, Poh Poh Wong, Shaohong Wu, Gary Yohe

Extinction risk from climate change

Abstract: Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.

Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices

Abstract: A doubling in global food demand projected for the next 50 years poses huge challenges for the sustainability both of food production and of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and the services they provide to society. Agriculturalists are the principal managers of global useable lands and will shape, perhaps irreversibly, the surface of the Earth in the coming decades. New incentives and policies for ensuring the sustainability of agriculture and ecosystem services will be crucial if we are to meet the demands of improving yields without compromising environmental integrity or public health.