Manuela González-Suárez

Bio: Manuela González-Suárez is an academic researcher from University of Reading. The author has contributed to research in topics: Population & Threatened species. The author has an hindex of 19, co-authored 56 publications receiving 1142 citations. Previous affiliations of Manuela González-Suárez include Spanish National Research Council & Centre national de la recherche scientifique.

One strategy does not fit all: determinants of urban adaptation in mammals.

Abstract: Urbanisation exposes wildlife to new challenging conditions and environmental pressures. Some mammalian species have adapted to these novel environments, but it remains unclear which characteristics allow them to persist. To address this question, we identified 190 mammals regularly recorded in urban settlements worldwide, and used phylogenetic path analysis to test hypotheses regarding which behavioural, ecological and life history traits favour adaptation to urban environments for different mammalian groups. Our results show that all urban mammals produce larger litters; whereas other traits such as body size, behavioural plasticity and diet diversity were important for some but not all taxonomic groups. This variation highlights the idiosyncrasies of the urban adaptation process and likely reflects the diversity of ecological niches and roles mammals can play. Our study contributes towards a better understanding of mammal association to humans, which will ultimately allow the design of wildlife-friendly urban environments and contribute to mitigate human-wildlife conflicts.

Variability in life-history and ecological traits is a buffer against extinction in mammals

Abstract: Anthropogenic degradation of the world's ecosystems is leading to a widespread and accelerating loss of biodiversity. However, not all species respond equally to existing threats, raising the question: what makes a species more vulnerable to extinction? We propose that higher intraspecific variability may reduce the risk of extinction, as different individuals and populations within a species may respond differently to occurring threats. Supporting this prediction, our results show that mammalian species with more variable adult body masses, litter sizes, sexual maturity ages and population densities are less vulnerable to extinction. Our findings reveal the role of local variation among populations, particularly of large mammals, as a buffering mechanism against extinction, and emphasise the importance of considering trait variation in comparative analyses and conservation management.

Human Disturbance Influences Reproductive Success and Growth Rate in California Sea Lions (Zalophus californianus)

Abstract: The environment is currently undergoing changes at both global (e.g., climate change) and local (e.g., tourism, pollution, habitat modification) scales that have the capacity to affect the viability of animal and plant populations. Many of these changes, such as human disturbance, have an anthropogenic origin and therefore may be mitigated by management action. To do so requires an understanding of the impact of human activities and changing environmental conditions on population dynamics. We investigated the influence of human activity on important life history parameters (reproductive rate, and body condition, and growth rate of neonate pups) for California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) in the Gulf of California, Mexico. Increased human presence was associated with lower reproductive rates, which translated into reduced long-term population growth rates and suggested that human activities are a disturbance that could lead to population declines. We also observed higher body growth rates in pups with increased exposure to humans. Increased growth rates in pups may reflect a density dependent response to declining reproductive rates (e.g., decreased competition for resources). Our results highlight the potentially complex changes in life history parameters that may result from human disturbance, and their implication for population dynamics. We recommend careful monitoring of human activities in the Gulf of California and emphasize the importance of management strategies that explicitly consider the potential impact of human activities such as ecotourism on vertebrate populations.

Which intrinsic traits predict vulnerability to extinction depends on the actual threatening processes

Abstract: Understanding what makes some species more vulnerable to extinction than others is an important challenge for conservation. Many comparative analyses have addressed this issue exploring how intrinsic and extrinsic traits associate with general estimates of vulnerability. However, these general estimates do not consider the actual threats that drive species to extinction and hence, are more difficult to translate into effective management. We provide an updated description of the types and spatial distribution of threats that affect mammals globally using data from the IUCN for 5941 species of mammals. Using these data we explore the links between intrinsic species traits and specific threats in order to identify key intrinsic features associated with particular drivers of extinction. We find that families formed by small-size habitat specialists are more likely to be threatened by habitat-modifying processes; whereas, families formed by larger mammals with small litter sizes are more likely to be threatened by processes that directly affect survival. These results highlight the importance of considering the actual threatening process in comparative studies. We also discuss the need to standardize and rank threat importance in global assessments such as the IUCN Red List to improve our ability to understand what makes some species more vulnerable to extinction than others.

Inferring spatial structure from time-series data: using multivariate state-space models to detect metapopulation structure of California sea lions in the Gulf of California, Mexico

Abstract: Summary 1. Understanding spatial structure and identifying subpopulations are critical for estimating population growth rates and extinction risk, and as such essential for e!ective conservation planning. However, movement and spatiotemporal environmental data are often unavailable, limiting our abilitytodirectlydefine subpopulations and theirlevel of asynchrony. 2. This study applies a recently developed statistical technique using time-series analysis of abundance data to identify subpopulations. The approach uses multivariate state-space models and Akaike’s Information Criterion-based model selection to quantify the data support for di!erent subpopulation numbers and configurations. This technique is applied to the population of CaliforniasealionsZalophuscalifornianusintheGulfofCalifornia, Mexico, distributedacross13breeding sites. 3. The abundanceof California sea lions in the Gulfof California has declinedover the lastdecade, though not all areas have been equally a!ected. In light of this variation, it is important to understandthepopulation structuretoensureaccurateviabilityassessmentsand e!ectivemanagement. 4. Ourdatasupportthehypothesisthatthe GulfofCaliforniasealion population hasfoursubpopulations, each with 2‐5 breeding sites. The dynamics between several adjacent subpopulations were correlated, suggesting that they experience similar environmental variation. For each subpopulation,weestimatedlong-termgrowthrates,aswell astheenvironmental andobservationvariation. 5. For most of the subpopulations, our estimates of growth rates were considerably lower than those previously reported. In addition, we found considerable variability across subpopulations in theirprojectedriskof severedeclineoverthe next 50 years. 6. Synthesis and applications. We illustrate a new multivariate state-space modelling technique that usestimeseriesofabundancetoquantifythedatasupportfordi!erentsubpopulationconfigurations. OuranalysisoftheCaliforniasealionpopulationintheGulfofCaliforniaindicatesthatthepopulationisspatiallystructuredintofoursubpopulations,eachexhibitingdistinctrisksofextinction.Based on our results, we recommend that conservation and management e!orts in the Gulf of California focus on the two subpopulations with high probabilities of extinction within the next 50 years (NorthernMidri!,SouthernMidri!).Multivariatestate-spacemodelsprovideapracticalapproach to determine the spatial structure of virtually any species; they may be particularly useful for species ofconservationconcernforwhichdataondispersalandenvironmentaldriversarelikelytobescarce.

The Theory of Island Biogeography

Abstract: Preface to the Princeton Landmarks in Biology Edition vii Preface xi Symbols Used xiii 1. The Importance of Islands 3 2. Area and Number of Speicies 8 3. Further Explanations of the Area-Diversity Pattern 19 4. The Strategy of Colonization 68 5. Invasibility and the Variable Niche 94 6. Stepping Stones and Biotic Exchange 123 7. Evolutionary Changes Following Colonization 145 8. Prospect 181 Glossary 185 References 193 Index 201

Regression Diagnostics: Identifying Influential Data and Sources of Collinearity

Abstract: 1. Introduction and Overview. 2. Detecting Influential Observations and Outliers. 3. Detecting and Assessing Collinearity. 4. Applications and Remedies. 5. Research Issues and Directions for Extensions. Bibliography. Author Index. Subject Index.

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

Abstract: In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

Defining the Anthropocene

Abstract: Time is divided by geologists according to marked shifts in Earth's state. Recent global environmental changes suggest that Earth may have entered a new human-dominated geological epoch, the Anthropocene. Here we review the historical genesis of the idea and assess anthropogenic signatures in the geological record against the formal requirements for the recognition of a new epoch. The evidence suggests that of the various proposed dates two do appear to conform to the criteria to mark the beginning of the Anthropocene: 1610 and 1964. The formal establishment of an Anthropocene Epoch would mark a fundamental change in the relationship between humans and the Earth system.