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Marc Kéry

Bio: Marc Kéry is an academic researcher from Swiss Ornithological Institute. The author has contributed to research in topics: Population & Occupancy. The author has an hindex of 50, co-authored 153 publications receiving 8893 citations. Previous affiliations of Marc Kéry include University of Zurich & University of Amsterdam.


Papers
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Book
12 Oct 2011
TL;DR: Includes complete documentation of all R and WinBUGS code required to conduct analyses and shows all the necessary steps from having the data in a text file out of Excel to interpreting and processing the output from WinBUGs in R.
Abstract: Bayesian statistics has exploded into biology and its sub-disciplines, such as ecology, over the past decade. The free software program WinBUGS and its open-source sister OpenBugs is currently the only flexible and general-purpose program available with which the average ecologist can conduct standard and non-standard Bayesian statistics. Comprehensive and richly-commented examples illustrate a wide range of models that are most relevant to the research of a modern population ecologist. All WinBUGS/OpenBUGS analyses are completely integrated in software R. Includes complete documentation of all R and WinBUGS code required to conduct analyses and shows all the necessary steps from having the data in a text file out of Excel to interpreting and processing the output from WinBUGS in R.

854 citations

Book
01 Jul 2010
TL;DR: Introduction to WINBUGS for Ecologists goes right to the heart of the matter by providing ecologists with a comprehensive, yet concise, guide to applying WinBUGS to the types of models that they use most often: linear (LM), generalized linear (GLM), linear mixed (LMM) and generalized linear mixed models (GLMM).
Abstract: Bayesian statistics has exploded into biology and its sub-disciplines such as ecology over the past decade. The free software program WinBUGS and its open-source sister OpenBugs is currently the only flexible and general-purpose program available with which the average ecologist can conduct their own standard and non-standard Bayesian statistics. Introduction to WINBUGS for Ecologists goes right to the heart of the matter by providing ecologists with a comprehensive, yet concise, guide to applying WinBUGS to the types of models that they use most often: linear (LM), generalized linear (GLM), linear mixed (LMM) and generalized linear mixed models (GLMM).Introduction to WinBUGS for Ecologists combines the use of simulated data sets "paired" analyses using WinBUGS (in a Bayesian framework for analysis) and in R (in a frequentist mode of inference) and uses a very detailed step-by-step tutorial presentation style that really lets the reader repeat every step of the application of a given mode in their own research. - Introduction to the essential theories of key models used by ecologists - Complete juxtaposition of classical analyses in R and Bayesian Analysis of the same models in WinBUGS- Provides every detail of R and WinBUGS code required to conduct all analyses- Written with ecological language and ecological examples- Companion Web Appendix that contains all code contained in the book, additional material (including more code and solutions to exercises)- Tutorial approach shows ecologists how to implement Bayesian analysis in practical problems that they face

437 citations

Book
01 Jan 2015
TL;DR: Applied Hierarchical Modeling in Ecology: Distribution, Abundance, Species Richness offers a new synthesis of the state-of-the-art of hierarchical models for plant and animal distribution, abundance, and community characteristics such as species richness using data collected in metapopulation designs.
Abstract: Applied Hierarchical Modeling in Ecology: Distribution, Abundance, Species Richness offers a new synthesis of the state-of-the-art of hierarchical models for plant and animal distribution, abundance, and community characteristics such as species richness using data collected in metapopulation designs. These types of data are extremely widespread in ecology and its applications in such areas as biodiversity monitoring and fisheries and wildlife management. This first volume explains static models/procedures in the context of hierarchical models that collectively represent a unified approach to ecological research, taking the reader from design, through data collection, and into analyses using a very powerful class of models. Applied Hierarchical Modeling in Ecology, Volume 1 serves as an indispensable manual for practicing field biologists, and as a graduate-level text for students in ecology, conservation biology, fisheries/wildlife management, and related fields. * Provides a synthesis of important classes of models about distribution, abundance, and species richness while accommodating imperfect detection* Presents models and methods for identifying unmarked individuals and species* Written in a step-by-step approach accessible to non-statisticians and provides fully worked examples that serve as a template for readers' analyses* Includes companion website containing data sets, code, solutions to exercises, and further information

428 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Long–term changes in the timing of autumn migration in birds, a key event in the annual cycle limiting the reproductive period, are investigated, using data spanning a 42–year period to analyse long–term change in the passage of 65 species of migratory birds through Western Europe.
Abstract: As a response to increasing spring temperature in temperate regions in recent years, populations of many plant and animal species, including migratory birds, have advanced the seasonal start of their reproduction or growth. However, the effects of climate changes on subsequent events of the annual cycle remain poorly understood. We investigated long-term changes in the timing of autumn migration in birds, a key event in the annual cycle limiting the reproductive period. Using data spanning a 42-year period, we analysed long-term changes in the passage of 65 species of migratory birds through Western Europe. The autumn passage of migrants wintering south of the Sahara has advanced in recent years, presumably as a result of selection pressure to cross the Sahel before its seasonal dry period. In contrast, migrants wintering north of the Sahara have delayed autumn passage. In addition, species with a variable rather than a fixed number of broods per year have delayed passage, possibly because they are free to attempt more broods. Recent climate changes seem to have a simple unidirectional effect on the seasonal onset of reproduction, but complex and opposing effects on the timing of subsequent events in the annual cycle, depending on the ecology and life history of a species. This complicates predictions of overall effects of global warming on avian communities.

380 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
01 Jul 2007-Ecology
TL;DR: A hierarchical parameterization of dynamic occupancy models is described that is analogous to the state-space formulation of models in time series, where the model is represented by two components, one for the partially observable occupancy process and another for the observations conditional on that process.
Abstract: Species occurrence and its dynamic components, extinction and colonization probabilities, are focal quantities in biogeography and metapopulation biology, and for species conservation assessments. It has been increasingly appreciated that these parameters must be estimated separately from detection probability to avoid the biases induced by non-detection error. Hence, there is now considerable theoretical and practical interest in dynamic occupancy models that contain explicit representations of metapopulation dynamics such as extinction, colonization, and turnover as well as growth rates. We describe a hierarchical parameterization of these models that is analogous to the state-space formulation of models in time series, where the model is represented by two components, one for the partially observable occupancy process and another for the observations conditional on that process. This parameterization naturally allows estimation of all parameters of the conventional approach to occupancy models, but in addition, yields great flexibility and extensibility, e.g., to modeling heterogeneity or latent structure in model parameters. We also highlight the important distinction between population and finite sample inference; the latter yields much more precise estimates for the particular sample at hand. Finite sample estimates can easily be obtained using the state-space representation of the model but are difficult to obtain under the conventional approach of likelihood-based estimation. We use R and WinBUGS to apply the model to two examples. In a standard analysis for the European Crossbill in a large Swiss monitoring program, we fit a model with year-specific parameters. Estimates of the dynamic parameters varied greatly among years, highlighting the irruptive population dynamics of that species. In the second example, we analyze route occupancy of Cerulean Warblers in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) using a model allowing for site-specific heterogeneity in model parameters. The results indicate relatively low turnover and a stable distribution of Cerulean Warblers which is in contrast to analyses of counts of individuals from the same survey that indicate important declines. This discrepancy illustrates the inertia in occupancy relative to actual abundance. Furthermore, the model reveals a declining patch survival probability, and increasing turnover, toward the edge of the range of the species, which is consistent with metapopulation perspectives on the genesis of range edges. Given detection/non-detection data, dynamic occupancy models as described here have considerable potential for the study of distributions and range dynamics.

375 citations


Cited by
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a model is described in an lmer call by a formula, in this case including both fixed-and random-effects terms, and the formula and data together determine a numerical representation of the model from which the profiled deviance or the profeatured REML criterion can be evaluated as a function of some of model parameters.
Abstract: Maximum likelihood or restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimates of the parameters in linear mixed-effects models can be determined using the lmer function in the lme4 package for R. As for most model-fitting functions in R, the model is described in an lmer call by a formula, in this case including both fixed- and random-effects terms. The formula and data together determine a numerical representation of the model from which the profiled deviance or the profiled REML criterion can be evaluated as a function of some of the model parameters. The appropriate criterion is optimized, using one of the constrained optimization functions in R, to provide the parameter estimates. We describe the structure of the model, the steps in evaluating the profiled deviance or REML criterion, and the structure of classes or types that represents such a model. Sufficient detail is included to allow specialization of these structures by users who wish to write functions to fit specialized linear mixed models, such as models incorporating pedigrees or smoothing splines, that are not easily expressible in the formula language used by lmer.

50,607 citations

Journal ArticleDOI

6,278 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The glmmTMB package fits many types of GLMMs and extensions, including models with continuously distributed responses, but here the authors focus on count responses and its ability to estimate the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution parameterized by the mean is unique.
Abstract: Count data can be analyzed using generalized linear mixed models when observations are correlated in ways that require random effects However, count data are often zero-inflated, containing more zeros than would be expected from the typical error distributions We present a new package, glmmTMB, and compare it to other R packages that fit zero-inflated mixed models The glmmTMB package fits many types of GLMMs and extensions, including models with continuously distributed responses, but here we focus on count responses glmmTMB is faster than glmmADMB, MCMCglmm, and brms, and more flexible than INLA and mgcv for zero-inflated modeling One unique feature of glmmTMB (among packages that fit zero-inflated mixed models) is its ability to estimate the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution parameterized by the mean Overall, its most appealing features for new users may be the combination of speed, flexibility, and its interface’s similarity to lme4

4,497 citations

Journal Article
TL;DR: In this paper, a test based on two conserved CHD (chromo-helicase-DNA-binding) genes that are located on the avian sex chromosomes of all birds, with the possible exception of the ratites (ostriches, etc.).

2,554 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A detailed explanation of how MaxEnt works and a prospectus on modeling options are provided to enable users to make informed decisions when preparing data, choosing settings and interpreting output to highlight the need for making biologically motivated modeling decisions.
Abstract: The MaxEnt software package is one of the most popular tools for species distribution and environmental niche modeling, with over 1000 published applications since 2006. Its popularity is likely for two reasons: 1) MaxEnt typically outperforms other methods based on predictive accuracy and 2) the software is particularly easy to use. MaxEnt users must make a number of decisions about how they should select their input data and choose from a wide variety of settings in the software package to build models from these data. The underlying basis for making these decisions is unclear in many studies, and default settings are apparently chosen, even though alternative settings are often more appropriate. In this paper, we provide a detailed explanation of how MaxEnt works and a prospectus on modeling options to enable users to make informed decisions when preparing data, choosing settings and interpreting output. We explain how the choice of background samples reflects prior assumptions, how nonlinear functions of environmental variables (features) are created and selected, how to account for environmentally biased sampling, the interpretation of the various types of model output and the challenges for model evaluation. We demonstrate MaxEnt’s calculations using both simplified simulated data and occurrence data from South Africa on species of the flowering plant family Proteaceae. Throughout, we show how MaxEnt’s outputs vary in response to different settings to highlight the need for making biologically motivated modeling decisions.

2,370 citations