Mark Schankerman

Bio: Mark Schankerman is an academic researcher from London School of Economics and Political Science. The author has contributed to research in topics: Investment (macroeconomics) & Rate of return. The author has an hindex of 47, co-authored 133 publications receiving 11343 citations. Previous affiliations of Mark Schankerman include New York University & World Bank.

Patent Quality and Research Productivity: Measuring Innovation with Multiple Indicators†

Abstract: We analyse the determinants of the decline in research productivity using panel data on manufacturing firms in the US for the period 1980–93. We focus on three factors: the level of demand, the quality of patents and technological exhaustion. We develop an index of patent ‘quality’ using detailed patent information and show that using multiple indicators substantially reduces the measured variance in quality. Research productivity at the firm level is inversely related to patent quality and the level of demand, as predicted by theory and patent quality is positively associated with the stock market value of firms.

Identifying technology spillovers and product market rivalry

Abstract: Support for many R&D and technology policies relies on empirical evidence that R&D ‘spills over’ between firms. But there are two countervailing R&D spillovers: positive effects from technology spillovers and negative effects from business stealing by product market rivals. We develop a general framework showing that technology and product market spillovers have testable implications for a range of performance indicators, and exploit these using distinct measures of a firm’s position in technology space and product market space. We show using panel data on US firms between 1981 and 2001 that both technology and product market spillovers operate, but that net social returns are several times larger than private returns. The spillover effects are also revealed when we analyze three high-tech sectors in detail - pharmaceuticals, computer hardware and telecommunication equipment. Using the model we evaluate three R&D subsidy policies and show that the typical focus of support for small and medium firms may be misplaced.

Characteristics of patent litigation: a window on competition

Abstract: We examine the patenting behavior of firms in an industry characterized by rapid technological change and cumulative innovation. Recent survey evidence suggests that semiconductor firms do not rely heavily on patents to appropriate returns to R&D. Yet the propensity of semiconductor firms to patent has risen dramatically since the mid-1980s. We explore this apparent paradox by conducting interviews with industry representatives and analyzing the patenting behavior of 95 U.S. semiconductor firms during 1979-1995. The results suggest that the 1980s strengthening of U.S. patent rights spawned "patent portfolio races" among capital-intensive firms, but it also facilitated entry by specialized design firms. Copyright 2001 by the RAND Corporation.

Estimates of the value of patent rights in European countries during the post-1950 period

Abstract: This paper examines the distribution of the values of patent rights in the United Kingdom, France, and Germany during the post-1950 period. These values are inferred from the behavior of patentees with respect to payment of renewal fees on their patents. A simple economic model of renewal decisions is combined with data on the proportion of patents renewed at alternative ages and the renewal fee schedules to produce estimates of the distribution (and the total) value of patent rights in these countries. Moreover, the data indicate that there have been changes in the value distribution, and we follow these changes over the period. The empirical results of particular interest concern: the total value of patent rights and the relationship between changes in it and changes in the quantity of patents, the skew in the distribution of patent values, and the rate of obsolescence on the returns to patents.

The rate of obsolescence of knowledge, research gestation lags, and the private rate of return to research resources

Abstract: This paper points out the conceptual distinction between the rates of decay in the physical productivity of traditional capital goods and that of the appropriate revenues accruing to knowledge-producing activities, and notes that it is the latter parameter which is required in any study which constructs a stock of privately marketable knowledge The rate of obsolescence of knowledge is estimated from a simple patent renewal and the estimates are found to be comparable to evidence provided by firms on the lifespan of the output of their R&D activities These estimates, together with mean R&D gestation lags, are then used to correct previous estimates of the private excess rate of return to investment in research We find that after the correction, the private excess rate of return to investment in research, at least in the early 1960's, was close to zero, which may explain why firms reduced the fraction of their resources allocated to research over the subsequent decade

The sources of innovation

Abstract: Chapter 1: The functional source of innovation general patterns economic explanation shifting and predicting the sources of innovation innovation as a distributed process. Chapter 2: Users as innovators. Chapter 3: Variations in the functional source of innovation. Chapter 4: Why does the functional source of innovation vary? How do innovators benefit from innovations? Do benefit expectations differ? Chapter 5: The hypothesis in testable form methods five empirical studies discussion. Chapter 6: Shifting the functional source of innovation. Chapter 7: Root of the problem: market research constrained by user experience Lead users as a solution testing the method discussion. Chapter 8: Innovation cooperation between competing firms applications for innovation management.

Patent Statistics as Economic Indicators: A Survey

Abstract: This survey reviews the growing use of patent data in economic analysis. After describing some of the main characteristics of patents and patent data, it focuses on the use of patents as an indicator of technological change. Cross-sectional and time-series studies of the relationship of patents to R&D expenditures are reviewed, as well as scattered estimates of the distribution of patent values and the value of patent rights, the latter being based on recent analyses of European patent renewal data. Time-series trends of patents granted in the U.S. are examined and their decline in the 1970s is found to be an artifact of the budget stringencies at the Patent Office. The longer run downward trend in patents per R&D dollar is interpreted not as an indication of diminishing returns but rather as a reflection of the changing meaning of such data over time. The conclusion is reached that, in spite of many difficulties and reservations, patent data remain a unique resource for the study of technical change.

The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks

Abstract: Uncertainty appears to jump up after major shocks like the Cuban Missile crisis, the assassination of JFK, the OPEC I oil-price shock and the 9/11 terrorist attack This paper offers a structural framework to analyze the impact of these uncertainty shocks I build a model with a time varying second moment, which is numerically solved and estimated using firm level data The parameterized model is then used to simulate a macro uncertainty shock, which produces a rapid drop and rebound in aggregate output and employment This occurs because higher uncertainty causes firms to temporarily pause their investment and hiring Productivity growth also falls because this pause in activity freezes reallocation across units In the medium term the increased volatility from the shock induces an overshoot in output, employment and productivity Thus, second moment shocks generate short sharp recessions and recoveries This simulated impact of an uncertainty shock is compared to VAR estimations on actual data, showing a good match in both magnitude and timing The paper also jointly estimates labor and capital convex and non-convex adjustment costs Ignoring capital adjustment costs is shown to lead to substantial bias while ignoring labor adjustment costs does not

Technological Opportunity and Spillovers of R&D: Evidence from Firms' Patents, Profits and Market Value

Abstract: This paper presents evidence that firms' patents, profits and market value are systematically related to the"technological position" of firms' research programs. Further, firms are seen to "move" in technology space in response to the pattern of contemporaneous profits at different positions. These movements tend to erode excess returns."Spillovers" of R&D are modelled by examining whether the R&D of neighboring firms in technology space has an observable impact on the firm's R&D success. Firms whose neighbors do much R&D produce more patents per dollar of their own R&D,with a positive interaction that gives high R&D firms the largest benefit from spillovers. In terms of profit and market value, however, their are both positive and negative effects of nearby firms' R&D. The net effect is positive for high R&D firms, but firms with R&D about one standard deviation below the mean are made worse off overall by the R&D of others.

Evolution and Rationality Some Recent Game-Theoretic Results. Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects

Abstract: We investigate conditions sufficient for identification of average treatment effects using instrumental variables. First we show that the existence of valid instruments is not sufficient to identify any meaningful average treatment effect. We then establish that the combination of an instrument and a condition on the relation between the instrument and the participation status is sufficient for identification of a local average treatment effect for those who can be induced to change their participation status by changing the value of the instrument. Finally we derive the probability limit of the standard IV estimator under these conditions. It is seen to be a weighted average of local average treatment effects.