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Marko Bohanec

Bio: Marko Bohanec is an academic researcher from Jožef Stefan Institute. The author has contributed to research in topics: Decision support system & Decision model. The author has an hindex of 27, co-authored 138 publications receiving 2445 citations. Previous affiliations of Marko Bohanec include University of Maribor & University of Ljubljana.


Papers
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This paper addresses the problem: given a completely accurate, but complex, definition of a concept, simplify the definition, possibly at the expense of accuracy, so that the simplified definition still corresponds to the concept “sufficiently” well.
Abstract: When communicating concepts, it is often convenient or even necessary to define a concept approximately. A simple, although only approximately accurate concept definition may be more useful than a completely accurate definition which involves a lot of detail. This paper addresses the problem: given a completely accurate, but complex, definition of a concept, simplify the definition, possibly at the expense of accuracy, so that the simplified definition still corresponds to the concept “sufficiently” well. Concepts are represented by decision trees, and the method of simplification is tree pruning. Given a decision tree that accurately specifies a concept, the problem is to find a smallest pruned tree that still represents the concept within some specified accuracy. A pruning algorithm is presented that finds an optimal solution by generating a dense sequence of pruned trees, decreasing in size, such that each tree has the highest accuracy among all the possible pruned trees of the same size. An efficient implementation of the algorithm, based on dynamic programming, is presented and empirically compared with three progressive pruning algorithms using both artificial and real-world data. An interesting empirical finding is that the real-world data generally allow significantly greater simplification at equal loss of accuracy.

163 citations

01 Jan 1990
TL;DR: An approach to decision making that integrates multi-attribute techniques with expert systems is described, based on the explicit artic ulation of qualitative decision knowledge which is represented by a tree of attributes and dec ision rules.
Abstract: An approach to decision making that integrates multi-attribute dec ision techniques with expert systems is described. The approach is based on the explicit artic ulation of qualitative decision knowledge which is represented by a tree of attributes and dec ision rules. The decision making process is supported by a specialized expert system shell for i nteractive construction of the knowledge base, evaluation of options and explanation/analysis of the results. Practical use of the shell is illustrated by an application in the field of performance evalua tion of enterprises.

150 citations

Book ChapterDOI
01 Jan 2018
TL;DR: Practical issues and challenges in applying the explanation methodology in a business context are illustrated on a practical use case of B2B sales forecasting in a company and it is demonstrated how explanations can be used as a what-if analysis tool to answer relevant business questions.
Abstract: Current research into algorithmic explanation methods for predictive models can be divided into two main approaches: gradient-based approaches limited to neural networks and more general perturbation-based approaches which can be used with arbitrary prediction models. We present an overview of perturbation-based approaches, with focus on the most popular methods (EXPLAIN, IME, LIME). These methods support explanation of individual predictions but can also visualize the model as a whole. We describe their working principles, how they handle computational complexity, their visualizations as well as their advantages and disadvantages. We illustrate practical issues and challenges in applying the explanation methodology in a business context on a practical use case of B2B sales forecasting in a company. We demonstrate how explanations can be used as a what-if analysis tool to answer relevant business questions.

118 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A novel use of a new general explanation methodology inside an intelligent system in a real-world case of business-to-business sales forecasting, showing how to solve a decision support problem, namely that the best performing black-box models are inaccessible to human interaction and analysis.
Abstract: Uniform and comprehensive explanations for an arbitrary black-box prediction model.Interactive what-if analysis for the evaluation of decision options.Support for validation and updates of decision makers' mental models.Real-world application on a difficult business problem - sales forecasting.The real-world business-to-business sales data set used is publicly available. A complexity of business dynamics often forces decision-makers to make decisions based on subjective mental models, reflecting their experience. However, research has shown that companies perform better when they apply data-driven decision-making. This creates an incentive to introduce intelligent, data-based decision models, which are comprehensive and support the interactive evaluation of decision options necessary for the business environment.Recently, a new general explanation methodology has been proposed, which supports the explanation of state-of-the-art black-box prediction models. Uniform explanations are generated on the level of model/individual instance and support what-if analysis. We present a novel use of this methodology inside an intelligent system in a real-world case of business-to-business (B2B) sales forecasting, a complex task frequently done judgmentally. Users can validate their assumptions with the presented explanations and test their hypotheses using the presented what-if parallel graph representation. The results demonstrate effectiveness and usability of the methodology. A significant advantage of the presented method is the possibility to evaluate seller's actions and to outline general recommendations in sales strategy.This flexibility of the approach and easy-to-follow explanations are suitable for many different applications. Our well-documented real-world case shows how to solve a decision support problem, namely that the best performing black-box models are inaccessible to human interaction and analysis. This could extend the use of the intelligent systems to areas where they were so far neglected due to their insistence on comprehensible models. A separation of the machine learning model selection from model explanation is another significant benefit for expert and intelligent systems. Explanations unconnected to a particular prediction model positively influence acceptance of new and complex models in the business environment through their easy assessment and switching.

102 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article presents an approach to the development and application of qualitative hierarchical decision models that is based on DEX, an expert system shell for multi-attribute decision support, and highlights and justifies the importance of knowledge presentation and option analysis methods for practical decision-making.

100 citations


Cited by
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Machine learning addresses many of the same research questions as the fields of statistics, data mining, and psychology, but with differences of emphasis.
Abstract: Machine Learning is the study of methods for programming computers to learn. Computers are applied to a wide range of tasks, and for most of these it is relatively easy for programmers to design and implement the necessary software. However, there are many tasks for which this is difficult or impossible. These can be divided into four general categories. First, there are problems for which there exist no human experts. For example, in modern automated manufacturing facilities, there is a need to predict machine failures before they occur by analyzing sensor readings. Because the machines are new, there are no human experts who can be interviewed by a programmer to provide the knowledge necessary to build a computer system. A machine learning system can study recorded data and subsequent machine failures and learn prediction rules. Second, there are problems where human experts exist, but where they are unable to explain their expertise. This is the case in many perceptual tasks, such as speech recognition, hand-writing recognition, and natural language understanding. Virtually all humans exhibit expert-level abilities on these tasks, but none of them can describe the detailed steps that they follow as they perform them. Fortunately, humans can provide machines with examples of the inputs and correct outputs for these tasks, so machine learning algorithms can learn to map the inputs to the outputs. Third, there are problems where phenomena are changing rapidly. In finance, for example, people would like to predict the future behavior of the stock market, of consumer purchases, or of exchange rates. These behaviors change frequently, so that even if a programmer could construct a good predictive computer program, it would need to be rewritten frequently. A learning program can relieve the programmer of this burden by constantly modifying and tuning a set of learned prediction rules. Fourth, there are applications that need to be customized for each computer user separately. Consider, for example, a program to filter unwanted electronic mail messages. Different users will need different filters. It is unreasonable to expect each user to program his or her own rules, and it is infeasible to provide every user with a software engineer to keep the rules up-to-date. A machine learning system can learn which mail messages the user rejects and maintain the filtering rules automatically. Machine learning addresses many of the same research questions as the fields of statistics, data mining, and psychology, but with differences of emphasis. Statistics focuses on understanding the phenomena that have generated the data, often with the goal of testing different hypotheses about those phenomena. Data mining seeks to find patterns in the data that are understandable by people. Psychological studies of human learning aspire to understand the mechanisms underlying the various learning behaviors exhibited by people (concept learning, skill acquisition, strategy change, etc.).

13,246 citations

01 Jan 2002

9,314 citations

Posted Content
TL;DR: Deming's theory of management based on the 14 Points for Management is described in Out of the Crisis, originally published in 1982 as mentioned in this paper, where he explains the principles of management transformation and how to apply them.
Abstract: According to W. Edwards Deming, American companies require nothing less than a transformation of management style and of governmental relations with industry. In Out of the Crisis, originally published in 1982, Deming offers a theory of management based on his famous 14 Points for Management. Management's failure to plan for the future, he claims, brings about loss of market, which brings about loss of jobs. Management must be judged not only by the quarterly dividend, but by innovative plans to stay in business, protect investment, ensure future dividends, and provide more jobs through improved product and service. In simple, direct language, he explains the principles of management transformation and how to apply them.

9,241 citations

Book
01 Jan 1995
TL;DR: In this article, Nonaka and Takeuchi argue that Japanese firms are successful precisely because they are innovative, because they create new knowledge and use it to produce successful products and technologies, and they reveal how Japanese companies translate tacit to explicit knowledge.
Abstract: How has Japan become a major economic power, a world leader in the automotive and electronics industries? What is the secret of their success? The consensus has been that, though the Japanese are not particularly innovative, they are exceptionally skilful at imitation, at improving products that already exist. But now two leading Japanese business experts, Ikujiro Nonaka and Hiro Takeuchi, turn this conventional wisdom on its head: Japanese firms are successful, they contend, precisely because they are innovative, because they create new knowledge and use it to produce successful products and technologies. Examining case studies drawn from such firms as Honda, Canon, Matsushita, NEC, 3M, GE, and the U.S. Marines, this book reveals how Japanese companies translate tacit to explicit knowledge and use it to produce new processes, products, and services.

7,448 citations

Book
30 Jun 2002
TL;DR: This paper presents a meta-anatomy of the multi-Criteria Decision Making process, which aims to provide a scaffolding for the future development of multi-criteria decision-making systems.
Abstract: List of Figures. List of Tables. Preface. Foreword. 1. Basic Concepts. 2. Evolutionary Algorithm MOP Approaches. 3. MOEA Test Suites. 4. MOEA Testing and Analysis. 5. MOEA Theory and Issues. 3. MOEA Theoretical Issues. 6. Applications. 7. MOEA Parallelization. 8. Multi-Criteria Decision Making. 9. Special Topics. 10. Epilog. Appendix A: MOEA Classification and Technique Analysis. Appendix B: MOPs in the Literature. Appendix C: Ptrue & PFtrue for Selected Numeric MOPs. Appendix D: Ptrue & PFtrue for Side-Constrained MOPs. Appendix E: MOEA Software Availability. Appendix F: MOEA-Related Information. Index. References.

5,994 citations