Marko Vulli

Bio: Marko Vulli is an academic researcher from Army and Navy Academy. The author has an hindex of 1, co-authored 1 publications receiving 7 citations.

Validating indirect fire models with field experiments

Abstract: Field experiments were used to evaluate three different indirect fire models: the cookie cutter and the Carleton damage functions and a simplified physical model for fragmenting ammunition. Data fr...

COMPARING SIMULATED RESULTS AND ACTUAL BATTLE EVENTS FROM 1944 – A case study using Sandis software

Abstract: We used Sandis simulation tool to study a historical battle of Loimola in summer 1944. The first goal was to study war history and address a novel method in Finnish environment. The second goal is to publish the methods used in military analysis. Instead of the classified questions and scenarios in modern Finnish defense, the battle of Loimola 27th July 1944 was used to get a public example of the analysis method. As a third goal, this simulation is an example of the tens of historical simulation studies needed to validate simulation software. Sandis simulation tool has been used for cost-effect and tactical analysis in Finnish defense forces. With Sandis the human operator is responsible for tactical decisions during the scenario building phase. During the calculation phase the computer calculates the combat losses, platoon/squad states (operational, defeated or destroyed), ammunition consumption and also other values not used in this study. During the analysis phase, charts, tables and killer-victim scoreboards are created. Our case study focuses on the day of 27th July 1944, when the Soviets assaulted the Finnish defense lines near Lake Suovajarvi. The unit hierarchies, weapons, weapon parameters, positions and movements of the units were set as input. The results match the historical events: the Finnish losses were 30 according to the literature; simulated loss distribution (95%) was between 25 and 44, mean 35. In the simulations the attacking units are defeated and stopped as in literature. The ratio of losses caused by artillery and light infantry weapons did not conflict the values from larger area available from the literature. Thus in this case study, Sandis performed well. In future work, different historical battles could be simulated in order to get better insight of our history and key issues of war, helping to improve our future defense.

Response surface modeling of precision-guided fragmentation munitions:

Abstract: The use of precision-guided artillery rounds has increased in recent years, but analytical models within simulations that enable effect analysis and tradeoff analysis between precision and conventi...

Assessment of Vulnerable Area and Naval Ship's Vulnerability based on the Carleton Damage Function

Abstract: This paper deals with the calculation of vulnerable areas of critical components required for the assessment of naval ship’s vulnerability. Taking into account the effectiveness of threatening weapons, the probability density function of damage was used to assess vulnerable areas or vulnerabilities of critical components. It is shown that the vulnerable area of critical component can be simply computed from the damage function. Considering the weapon effectiveness of fragmentation and explosion on the target, both Carleton Damage Function and Rectangular Cookie Cutter Function representing the probability of damage are applied to the vulnerable area assessment. Carleton damage function is utilized to describe the weapon-target interaction in the vulnerability analyses. A problem of blast effect against an assumed naval ship is chosen as a case study. Vulnerability is evaluated by applying the suggested method to the equipments arranged in the engine room of the virtual ship.

Effects of the cookie cutter function shapes on Monte Carlo simulations of weapon effectiveness

Abstract: Several shapes of cookie cutter function have been used in weapon effectiveness analyses. Although it is perceived that different cookie cutter shapes would lead to different analysis results, little proof has been developed. This paper investigates whether different cookie cutter shapes produce different results of Monte Carlo simulations to determine the probability of damage on area targets. Four cookie cutter shapes, which are circle, ellipse, rectangle, and the actual shape of weapon lethal zone, were employed in a case study on multiple shots of artillery weapons against a uniform value target. The Monte Carlo simulations were carried out on different number of shots, targets, and weapon lethality data. Statistical analyses were performed and it was suggested that the difference between the results determined by different shapes of cookie cutter function was statistically significant but the effect of the shapes of cookie cutter function on the results was small.