Martin Norsell

Abstract: This study reviews ship security assessment. The objectives are to explore the possibilities for quantifying and performing a more thorough ship security risk analysis than that described in the International Ship and Port Facility Security code and to evaluate to what extent this more detailed analysis increases ship security and facilitate the effective selection of risk control options. The study focuses on Somali-based maritime piracy, using piracy on the Indian Ocean as a case study. Data are collected using questionnaires and interviews with civilian and military security experts who possess firsthand experience of piracy off the coast of Somalia. The data are collected specifically for this study and describe and quantify the threat’s capability, intent and likelihood of exploiting a ship’s vulnerability. Based on the collected description of the threat, the study analyzes and describes: probability of detection by pirates, probability of successful approach, and probability of successful boarding. The performed work shows good agreement between calculated probabilities and frequencies in the cited incident reports. Also, the developed scenarios describe the most important influences on the analyzed areas. The research therefore shows that the proposed risk-based approach, which uses structurally collected and documented information on the threat, can increase ship security by assisting in selecting risk control options. The approach also allows for a better understanding of the causal relationship between threat and risk than that provided in today’s security analysis by ship owners, for example. This understanding is crucial to choosing effective and robust risk control options.

Abstract: This paper investigates the implementation of the radar cross section (RCS) of aircraft in modeling and simulation (M&S) More specifically, it addresses the tradeoff between accuracy and computational cost introduced by spatial RCS fluctuations High-resolution RCS matrices, generated using Physical Optics (PO), were used in an investigation of RCS matrix resolution, and an evaluation of different bilinear interpolation methods is presented The spatial Fourier transform was used for resolution analysis It was found that the smallest RCS interpolation error was obtained using splines Furthermore, results showed that the distribution of the relative interpolation error in detection range was well approximated by a log-normal distribution

Abstract: The problem of finding an optimal aircraft trajectory for long-distance flights in three dimensions subject to radar detection constraints is considered A general point-mass model previously developed is not suitable because the time discretization needs to be very fine to resolve the rigid-body dynamics resulting in very large optimization problems Different reduced mathematical models are derived and compared to the more general performance model Finally, a long-range mission involving two subsonic jet trainers approaching a radar target is numerically simulated The results indicate that the time a hostile radar has an approaching aircraft under surveillance can be greatly reduced by using the proposed methodology

Abstract: The problem of finding an optimal aircraft trajectory subject to constraints defining distance of detection to hostile radar stations is considered. The purpose is to find a trajectory minimizing the flight time between two given positions without hostile radar detection. The flight path is represented using a smooth curve in the form of a spline approximation. The spline representation is used to derive the heading- and bank angles of the aircraft. The position of the aircraft together with the bank- and heading angles are used for calculations of the radar detection range. Furthermore, an example in three dimensions when a Saab 105 approaches a radar station in level flight is investigated.

Abstract: This study develops a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model to evaluate the risk of ship being involved in ship collisions which takes into account the frequency and consequence of all possible accident scenarios. Two accident consequence types including human life loss and oil pollution which is measured in terms of the volume of oil spilled are considered in this study. The proposed QRA model consists of a collision frequency estimation model, an event tree and consequence estimation models. The event tree comprises five intermediate events including ship type, ship size, loading condition, hull damage and survivability. Two “generic” mathematic models are developed to estimate the human life loss and oil pollution caused by ship collisions, respectively. A case study is finally created using the real-time ship movement data in the Singapore Strait from the Llyod’s Marine Intelligence Unit (Lloyd’s MIU) database. Results show that the container ship, bulk carrier and oil tanker are the three main ship types being involved in collision accidents. Although the passenger/RORO ship has the lowest frequency being involved in collisions, it will suffer the most serious consequence in terms of the human life loss once it is involved in an accident. Considering the relative high percentage of oil tankers involving in ship collisions and their severe consequences, focus should be placed on the tracking and management of oil tanker traffic.

Abstract: This paper presents an approach to quantify human error probability in the gas inerting operation of crude oil tankers since it is one of the most critical processes on-board ships. The maritime regulatory bodies require the application of the use of inert gas on newly built tankers, and most existing tankers over 20,000 dwt, since the gas inerting operation prevents fire and chemical reaction inside the cargo tanks. Despite its operational benefits, it may cause oxygen deficiency inside the tanks and damage human health as well as the marine environment. Therefore, it is quite significant for marine safety practitioners to predict human error probability (HEP) during the gas inerting operation. Unlike conventional HEP assessment methods, this paper contains a quantitative approach to systematically predict human error for designated tasks and ascertain the desired safety control level in crude oil tanker ships. To achieve this goal, a quantification of human error probability approach is proposed. In view of the findings, human error reduction measures are recommended. As a result, the paper is expected to contribute to the improvement of maritime safety, protection of the environment, and the reduction of loss of life on-board crude oil tankers.

Abstract: The objective of this paper is to analyze and assess operational risk within the port terminals at the RO–RO activity. The paper proposes a specific methodology based on AHP multicriteria approach. After detection of the inherent risk of process and estimation of the both gravity and level of mastery we judge against two approaches in order to identify the most critical risks and to establish preventive measures.