Michael Feroli

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors focus on market "tantrums" in which risk premiums inherent in market interest rates fluctuate widely, and find some support for the proposition that market tantrums can arise without any leverage or actions taken by leveraged intermediaries.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors simulate a multi-region overlapping generations model that is calibrated to match the demographic differences among the major industrialized countries over the past 50 years and find that these differences can explain some of the observed long-term capital movements in the G-7.

TL;DR: This paper examined the behavior of inflation in the United States since 1984 and found that the change in inflation is negatively serially correlated and the change can be best predicted by a statistical model that includes only information from the two most recent quarters.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors simulate a multi-region overlapping generations model that is calibrated to match the demographic differences among the major industrialized countries over the past 50 years and find that these differences can explain some of the observed long-term capital movements in the G-7.

TL;DR: The authors argue that the Federal Reserve can improve communication in the current environment by moving away from time-based forward guidance, clarifying how interest rates are likely to change given new information, and providing more information in the Summary of Economic Projections, and argue that, except under unusual circumstances, this is an imprudent strategy as it mutes the effect of macroeconomic news on interest rates and unnecessarily places restrictions on future Federal Reserve action when new information arrives.