The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), is the latest atmospheric reanalysis of the modern satellite era produced by NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). MERRA-2 assimilates observation types not available to its predecessor, MERRA, and includes updates to the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model and analysis scheme so as to provide a viable ongoing climate analysis beyond MERRA’s terminus. While addressing known limitations of MERRA, MERRA-2 is also intended to be a development milestone for a future integrated Earth system analysis (IESA) currently under development at GMAO. This paper provides an overview of the MERRA-2 system and various performance metrics. Among the advances in MERRA-2 relevant to IESA are the assimilation of aerosol observations, several improvements to the representation of the stratosphere including ozone, and improved representations of cryospheric processes. Other improvements in the quality of M...

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The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2)

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was completed for the 31-yr period from 1979 to 2009, in January 2010. The CFSR was designed and executed as a global, high-resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean–land surface–sea ice system to provide the best estimate of the state of these coupled domains over this period. The current CFSR will be extended as an operational, real-time product into the future. New features of the CFSR include 1) coupling of the atmosphere and ocean during the generation of the 6-h guess field, 2) an interactive sea ice model, and 3) assimilation of satellite radiances by the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) scheme over the entire period. The CFSR global atmosphere resolution is ~38 km (T382) with 64 levels extending from the surface to 0.26 hPa. The global ocean's latitudinal spacing is 0.25° at the equator, extending to a global 0.5° beyond the tropics, with 40 levels to a depth of 4737 m. The global land surface model has four soil levels and the global sea ice m...

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The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis

A computationally efficient relocatable system for generalized inverse (GI) modeling of barotropic ocean tides is described. The GI penalty functional is minimized using a representer method, which requires repeated solution of the forward and adjoint linearized shallow water equations (SWEs). To make representer computations efficient, the SWEs are solved in the frequency domain by factoring the coefficient matrix for a finite-difference discretization of the second-order wave equation in elevation. Once this matrix is factored representers can be calculated rapidly. By retaining the first-order SWE system (defined in terms of both elevations and currents) in the definition of the discretized GI penalty functional, complete generality in the choice of dynamical error covariances is retained. This allows rational assumptions about errors in the SWE, with soft momentum balance constraints (e.g., to account for inaccurate parameterization of dissipation), but holds mass conservation constraints. Wh...

/pdf/efficient-inverse-modeling-of-barotropic-ocean-tides-2awn93pupi.pdf

Efficient Inverse Modeling of Barotropic Ocean Tides

The second version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) was made operational at NCEP in March 2011. This version has upgrades to nearly all aspects of the data assimilation and forecast model components of the system. A coupled reanalysis was made over a 32-yr period (1979–2010), which provided the initial conditions to carry out a comprehensive reforecast over 29 years (1982–2010). This was done to obtain consistent and stable calibrations, as well as skill estimates for the operational subseasonal and seasonal predictions at NCEP with CFSv2. The operational implementation of the full system ensures a continuity of the climate record and provides a valuable up-to-date dataset to study many aspects of predictability on the seasonal and subseasonal scales. Evaluation of the reforecasts show that the CFSv2 increases the length of skillful MJO forecasts from 6 to 17 days (dramatically improving subseasonal forecasts), nearly doubles the skill of seasonal forecasts of 2-m temperatures over the ...

/pdf/the-ncep-climate-forecast-system-version-2-3tkemm81z9.pdf

The NCEP climate forecast system version 2

During 2015–2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching, the third global-scale event since mass bleaching was first documented in the 1980s. Here we examine how and why the severity of recurrent major bleaching events has varied at multiple scales, using aerial and underwater surveys of Australian reefs combined with satellite-derived sea surface temperatures. The distinctive geographic footprints of recurrent bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998, 2002 and 2016 were determined by the spatial pattern of sea temperatures in each year. Water quality and fishing pressure had minimal effect on the unprecedented bleaching in 2016, suggesting that local protection of reefs affords little or no resistance to extreme heat. Similarly, past exposure to bleaching in 1998 and 2002 did not lessen the severity of bleaching in 2016. Consequently, immediate global action to curb future warming is essential to secure a future for coral reefs.

/pdf/global-warming-and-recurrent-mass-bleaching-of-corals-12037m88aj.pdf

Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals

Two new high-resolution sea surface temperature (SST) analysis products have been developed using optimum interpolation (OI). The analyses have a spatial grid resolution of 0.25° and a temporal resolution of 1 day. One product uses the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) infrared satellite SST data. The other uses AVHRR and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) on the NASA Earth Observing System satellite SST data. Both products also use in situ data from ships and buoys and include a large-scale adjustment of satellite biases with respect to the in situ data. Because of AMSR’s near-all-weather coverage, there is an increase in OI signal variance when AMSR is added to AVHRR. Thus, two products are needed to avoid an analysis variance jump when AMSR became available in June 2002. For both products, the results show improved spatial and temporal resolution compared to previous weekly 1° OI analyses. The AVHRR-only product uses Pathfinder AVHRR data (currently available from January 1985 to December 2005) and operational AVHRR data for 2006 onward. Pathfinder AVHRR was chosen over operational AVHRR, when available, because Pathfinder agrees better with the in situ data. The AMSR– AVHRR product begins with the start of AMSR data in June 2002. In this product, the primary AVHRR contribution is in regions near land where AMSR is not available. However, in cloud-free regions, use of both infrared and microwave instruments can reduce systematic biases because their error characteristics are independent.

Daily High-Resolution-Blended Analyses for Sea Surface Temperature

Global observations of nonlinear mesoscale eddies

Global 1 83 18 climatologies of the first baroclinic gravity-wave phase speed c1 and the Rossby radius of deformation l1 are computed from climatological average temperature and salinity profiles. These new atlases are compared with previously published 5 83 58 coarse resolution maps of l1 for the Northern Hemisphere and the South Atlantic and with a 1 83 18 fine-resolution map of c1 for the tropical Pacific. It is concluded that the methods used in these earlier estimates yield values that are biased systematically low by 5%‐15% owing to seemingly minor computational errors. Geographical variations in the new high-resolution maps of c1 and l1 are discussed in terms of a WKB approximation that elucidates the effects of earth rotation, stratification, and water depth on these quantities. It is shown that the effects of temporal variations of the stratification can be neglected in the estimation of c1 and l1 at any particular location in the World Ocean. This is rationalized from consideration of the WKB approximation.

https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/downloads/d504rr38k

Geographical Variability of the First Baroclinic Rossby Radius of Deformation

[1] Ten years of sea-surface height (SSH) fields constructed from the merged TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) and ERS-1/2 altimeter datasets are analyzed to investigate mesoscale variability in the global ocean. The higher resolution of the merged dataset reveals that more than 50% of the variability over much of the World Ocean is accounted for by eddies with amplitudes of 5–25 cm and diameters of 100–200 km. These eddies propagate nearly due west at approximately the phase speed of nondispersive baroclinic Rossby waves with preferences for slight poleward and equatorward deflection of cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies, respectively. The vast majority of the eddies are found to be nonlinear.

/pdf/global-observations-of-large-oceanic-eddies-1ppurhn1ew.pdf

Global observations of large oceanic eddies

Four-year averages of 25-kilometer-resolution measurements of near-surface wind speed and direction over the global ocean from the QuikSCAT satellite radar scatterometer reveal the existence of surprisingly persistent small-scale features in the dynamically and thermodynamically important curl and divergence of the wind stress. Air-sea interaction over sea surface temperature fronts throughout the world ocean is evident in both the curl and divergence fields, as are the influences of islands and coastal mountains. Ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream generate distinctive patterns in the curl field. These previously unresolved features have important implications for oceanographic and air-sea interaction research.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/303/5660/978.full.pdf

Michael G. Schlax

Papers

Daily High-Resolution-Blended Analyses for Sea Surface Temperature

Global observations of nonlinear mesoscale eddies

Geographical Variability of the First Baroclinic Rossby Radius of Deformation

Global observations of large oceanic eddies

Satellite measurements reveal persistent small-scale features in ocean winds.