Michael Paolisso

Bio: Michael Paolisso is an academic researcher from University of Maryland, College Park. The author has contributed to research in topics: Population & Participatory modeling. The author has an hindex of 22, co-authored 55 publications receiving 1649 citations. Previous affiliations of Michael Paolisso include International Center for Research on Women.

Potential climate-change impacts on the Chesapeake Bay

Abstract: We review current understanding of the potential impact of climate change on the Chesapeake Bay. Scenarios for CO2 emissions indicate that by the end of the 21 st century the Bay region will experience significant changes in climate forcings with respect to historical conditions, including increases in CO2 concentrations, sea level, and water temperature of 50–160%, 0.7–1.6 m, and 2–6 � C, respectively. Also likely are increases in precipitation amount (very likely in the winter and spring), precipitation intensity, intensity of tropical and extratropical cyclones (though their frequency may decrease), and sea-level variability. The greatest uncertainty is associated with changes in annual streamflow, though it is likely that winter and spring flows will increase. Climate change alone will cause the Bay to function very differently in the future. Likely changes include: (1) an increase in coastal flooding and submergence of estuarine wetlands; (2) an increase in salinity variability on many time scales; (3) an increase in harmful algae; (4) an increase in hypoxia; (5) a reduction of eelgrass, the dominant submerged aquatic vegetation in the Bay; and (6) altered interactions among trophic levels, with subtropical fish and shellfish species ultimately being favored in the Bay. The magnitude of these changes is sensitive to the CO 2 emission trajectory, so that actions taken now to reduce CO2 emissions will reduce climate impacts on the Bay. Research needs include improved precipitation and streamflow projections for the Bay watershed and whole-system monitoring, modeling, and process studies that can capture the likely non-linear responses of the Chesapeake Bay system to climate variability, climate change, and their interaction with other anthropogenic stressors.

Tools and methods in participatory modeling: Selecting the right tool for the job

Abstract: Various tools and methods are used in participatory modelling, at different stages of the process and for different purposes. The diversity of tools and methods can create challenges for stakeholders and modelers when selecting the ones most appropriate for their projects. We offer a systematic overview, assessment, and categorization of methods to assist modelers and stakeholders with their choices and decisions. Most available literature provides little justification or information on the reasons for the use of particular methods or tools in a given study. In most of the cases, it seems that the prior experience and skills of the modelers had a dominant effect on the selection of the methods used. While we have not found any real evidence of this approach being wrong, we do think that putting more thought into the method selection process and choosing the most appropriate method for the project can produce better results. Based on expert opinion and a survey of modelers engaged in participatory processes, we offer practical guidelines to improve decisions about method selection at different stages of the participatory modeling process.

Blue Crabs and Controversy on the Chesapeake Bay: A Cultural Model for Understanding Watermen's Reasoning about Blue Crab Management

Abstract: Commercial fishers of the Chesapeake Bay, known throughout the region as watermen, have depended for centuries on the bay's natural resources to support their families and communities. Recently, yield and population indicators have led marine scientists and natural resource managers to conclude that the blue crab population is at dangerously low levels and that reductions in commercial harvesting are key to protecting the blue crab. Watermen agree that the blue crab fishery is under intense pressure and see a role for science and regulations in helping to sustain the fishery and their livelihoods, but they question the scientific knowledge and are critical of the governmental regulations. Watermen's knowledge, beliefs, and values have not been explored for their potential as an alternative or complement to scientific and regulatory approaches to addressing problems of the blue crab fishery. This paper uses a cognitive anthropology approach to enrich our understanding of watermen's cultural and ecological ...

Does Cash Crop Adoption Detract from Child Care Provision? Evidence from Rural Nepal*

Abstract: This document addresses the issues of agricultural commercialization using data from fieldwork conducted in Nepal. It aimed to examine the impact of a project designed to commercialize vegetables and fruit--the Vegetable and Fruit Cash Crop Program (VCF)--on male and female time allocation. The goal of VFC program was to increase the commercial production of vegetables and fruits in farm households that were heavily dependent on the production of cereal and livestock for home consumption. Findings from multivariate analysis suggest that for households with one preschooler VFC participation results in more time to agricultural production of the cash crop for both men and women but also a decrease in care time to preschoolers from both men and women. Meanwhile for households with more than one preschooler this trade-off is not so apparent. The analysis also suggests that behavior change initiatives to protect time to child care might be feasible in that VFC participation does not decrease the overall nonwork time of men or women with preschool children in residence.

Coastal flooding, climate change and environmental justice: identifying obstacles and incentives for adaptation in two metropolitan Boston Massachusetts communities

Abstract: We explored the possible future impacts of increased coastal flooding due to sea level rise and the potential adaptation responses of two urban, environmental justice communities in the metropolitan Boston area of Massachusetts. East Boston is predominantly a residential area with some industrial and commercial activities, particularly along the coastal fringe. Everett, a city to the north of Boston, has a diversified industrial and commercial base. While these two communities have similar socioeconomic characteristics, they differ substantially in the extent to which residents would be impacted by increased coastal flooding. In East Boston, a large portion of residents would be flooded, while in Everett, it is the commercial/industrial districts that are primarily vulnerable. Through a series of workshops with residents in each community, we found that the target populations do not have an adaptation perspective or knowledge of any resources that could assist them in this challenge. Furthermore, they do not feel included in the planning processes within their communities. However, a common incentive for both communities was an intense commitment to their communities and an eagerness to learn more and become actively engaged in decisions regarding climate change adaptation. The lessons that can be applied to other studies include 1) images are powerful tools in communicating concepts, 2) understanding existing cultural knowledge and values in adaptation planning is essential to the planning process and 3) engaging local residents at the beginning of the process can create important educational opportunities and develop trust and consensus that is necessary for moving from concept to implementation.

Maternal employment and time with children: dramatic change or surprising continuity?

Abstract: Despite the rapid rise in mothers’ labor force participation, mothers’ time with children has tended to be quite stable over time. In the past, nonemployed mothers’ time with children was reduced by the demands of unpaid family work and domestic chores and by the use of mother substitutes for childcare, especially in large families. Today employed mothers seek ways to maximize time with children: They remain quite likely to work part-time or to exit from the labor force for some years when their children are young; they also differ from nonemployed mothers in other uses of time (housework, volunteer work, leisure). In addition, changes in children’s lives (e.g., smaller families, the increase in preschool enrollment, the extended years of financial dependence on parents as more attend college) are altering the time and money investments that children require from parents. Within marriage, fathers are spending more time with their children than in the past, perhaps increasing the total time children spend with parents even as mothers work more hours away from home.

Beyond the Qualitative Interview: Data Preparation and Transcription

Abstract: The increased use of qualitative research, especially its application in multisite studies, requires robust data collection techniques and the documentation of research procedures. The inappropriate or inadequate preparation of transcripts from audio or digital recordings can delay or negatively affect the analysis process. Although no universal transcription format is adequate for all types of qualitative data collection approaches, settings, or theoretical frameworks, there are some practical considerations that can help researchers systematically organize and analyze textual data.

Elevated Blood Lead Levels in Children Associated With the Flint Drinking Water Crisis: A Spatial Analysis of Risk and Public Health Response

Abstract: Objectives. We analyzed differences in pediatric elevated blood lead level incidence before and after Flint, Michigan, introduced a more corrosive water source into an aging water system without adequate corrosion control. Methods. We reviewed blood lead levels for children younger than 5 years before (2013) and after (2015) water source change in Greater Flint, Michigan.We assessed the percentage of elevated blood lead levels in both time periods, and identified geographical locations through spatial analysis. Results. Incidence of elevated blood lead levels increased from 2.4% to 4.9% (P<.05) after water source change, and neighborhoods with the highest water lead levels experienced a 6.6% increase. No significant change was seen outside the city. Geospatial analysis identified disadvantaged neighborhoods as having the greatest elevated blood lead levelincreases andinformed response prioritization during the now-declared public health emergency. Conclusions. The percentage of children with elevated blood lead levels increased after water source change, particularly in socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods. Water is a growing source of childhood lead exposure because of aging infrastructure. (Am J Public Health. 2016;106:283–290. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2015.303003)