Michel Bakkenes

Bio: Michel Bakkenes is an academic researcher from Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. The author has contributed to research in topics: Biodiversity & Climate change. The author has an hindex of 21, co-authored 29 publications receiving 9284 citations. Previous affiliations of Michel Bakkenes include University of York.

Biodiversity and Socioeconomic Impacts of Selected Agro-Commodity Production Systems

Abstract: This study assesses the socioeconomic and biodiversity impacts associated with the production of selected agro-commodities in their production countries and areas. Selected agro-commodities are soy (in Argentina and Brazil), palm oil (in Indonesia and Malaysia), beef (in Argentina and Brazil), and coffee (in Honduras and Vietnam). In each of the countries specific production areas and regions were selected, where production of the agro-commodity has shown strong expansion during the last 5 to 8 years. Using data and information on biodiversity and socioeconomic indicators available at the subnational level, a loss of biodiversity as well as a decline of critical socioeconomic indicators was observed in 54% of the studied production areas. Because in the mid-1990s several production areas had lower values for important socioeconomic indicators compared to the national average, a widening of the gap between the socioeconomic situation in production areas as compared to the national average was found in 26% of the cases studied. This corresponds to 59% of areas with a poor initial development situation. We found that factors explaining these patterns are characteristics of the commodities, macroeconomic and governance issues of the countries, as well as the history of the production area and whether production increase occurs through frontier expansion or intensification. Overall these results contradict the neoliberal assumption that export-oriented development will generally stimulate economic growth and reduce poverty in the production areas.

Cross-roads of planet earth's life : exploring means to meet the 2010 biodiversity target : solution-oriented scenarios for Global Biodiversity Outlook 2

Abstract: A scenario study from 2000 to 2050 has been performed (by Natuur en Milieuplanbureau, UNEP and WCMC) to explore the effects of future economic, demographic and technical developments on environmental pressures and global biodiversity. Policy options that affect global biodiversity were analysed on their contribution to the 2010 biodiversity targets agreed upon under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). The mean species abundance of natural occurring species was used as indicator for biodiversity. To analyse the economic and environmental consequences of changes in global drivers and policies, we developed a global economic-biophysical framework by combining the extended GTAP model (Van Meijl et al., 2005) with the IMAGE model (Alcamo et al., 1998; IMAGE Team, 2001).

To What Extent Did We Change Our Soils? A Global Comparison of Natural and Current Conditions

Abstract: The food security–climate change nexus rapidly gains momentum. Soil degradation plays an important role in this context while dealing with, for example, the productive capacity of our soil resources or carbon sequestration for climate change mitigation. However, little has been done to assess the pristine soil conditions despite the fact that these provide the basis to put changes into context. Various methodologies have been developed to assess the global distribution of current soil conditions. We used the S-World methodology that was developed to generate global soil property maps for environmental modelling studies. Up till now, the S-World methodology assessed current soil conditions by disaggregating the Harmonized World Soil Database using detailed information on climate, topography, land cover, and land use. This study used the S-World methodology to derive global soil conditions under natural vegetation. A large number of natural areas around the globe were identified for which land cover, expressed by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, could be successfully correlated to environmental conditions such as temperature, rainfall, and topography. Using this relation in regression kriging, the vegetation index under natural conditions was derived for the entire globe. Subsequently, the S-World methodology was used to calculate the soil properties under natural land cover and absence of human land use. Soil property maps for natural and current conditions were compared and showed large local differences. The results indicate that there are major changes due to land cover and land use change and that these changes are concentrated on the globe. The results are the basis for future assessments on, for example, land degradation, food security, or the sustainable development goals. © 2017 The Authors. Land Degradation & Development Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data

Abstract: Prediction of species' distributions is central to diverse applications in ecology, evolution and conservation science. There is increasing electronic access to vast sets of occurrence records in museums and herbaria, yet little effective guidance on how best to use this information in the context of numerous approaches for modelling distributions. To meet this need, we compared 16 modelling methods over 226 species from 6 regions of the world, creating the most comprehensive set of model comparisons to date. We used presence-only data to fit models, and independent presence-absence data to evaluate the predictions. Along with well-established modelling methods such as generalised additive models and GARP and BIOCLIM, we explored methods that either have been developed recently or have rarely been applied to modelling species' distributions. These include machine-learning methods and community models, both of which have features that may make them particularly well suited to noisy or sparse information, as is typical of species' occurrence data. Presence-only data were effective for modelling species' distributions for many species and regions. The novel methods consistently outperformed more established methods. The results of our analysis are promising for the use of data from museums and herbaria, especially as methods suited to the noise inherent in such data improve.

Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet

Abstract: The planetary boundaries framework defines a safe operating space for humanity based on the intrinsic biophysical processes that regulate the stability of the Earth system. Here, we revise and update the planetary boundary framework, with a focus on the underpinning biophysical science, based on targeted input from expert research communities and on more general scientific advances over the past 5 years. Several of the boundaries now have a two-tier approach, reflecting the importance of cross-scale interactions and the regional-level heterogeneity of the processes that underpin the boundaries. Two core boundaries—climate change and biosphere integrity—have been identified, each of which has the potential on its own to drive the Earth system into a new state should they be substantially and persistently transgressed.

Extinction risk from climate change

Abstract: Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.

Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models.

Abstract: In the last two decades, interest in species distribution models (SDMs) of plants and animals has grown dramatically. Recent advances in SDMs allow us to potentially forecast anthropogenic effects on patterns of biodiversity at different spatial scales. However, some limitations still preclude the use of SDMs in many theoretical and practical applications. Here, we provide an overview of recent advances in this field, discuss the ecological principles and assumptions underpinning SDMs, and highlight critical limitations and decisions inherent in the construction and evaluation of SDMs. Particular emphasis is given to the use of SDMs for the assessment of climate change impacts and conservation management issues. We suggest new avenues for incorporating species migration, population dynamics, biotic interactions and community ecology into SDMs at multiple spatial scales. Addressing all these issues requires a better integration of SDMs with ecological theory.