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Miguel Almunia

Bio: Miguel Almunia is an academic researcher from Center for Economic and Policy Research. The author has contributed to research in topics: Revenue & Value-added tax. The author has an hindex of 12, co-authored 34 publications receiving 740 citations. Previous affiliations of Miguel Almunia include University of Warwick & Charles III University of Madrid.

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Almunia et al. as discussed by the authors analyzed monetary and fiscal responses in the 1930s as a natural experiment or counterfactual capable of shedding light on the impact of current policies.
Abstract: The Great Depression of the 1930s and the Great Credit Crisis of the 2000s had similar causes but elicited strikingly different policy responses. While it remains too early to assess the effectiveness of current policy, it is possible to analyse monetary and fiscal responses in the 1930s as a natural experiment or counterfactual capable of shedding light on the impact of current policies. We employ vector autoregressions, instrumental variables, and qualitative evidence for 27 countries in the period 1925–39. The results suggest that monetary and fiscal stimulus was effective -- that where it did not make a difference it was not tried. They shed light on the debate over fiscal multipliers in episodes of financial crisis. They are consistent with multipliers at the higher end of those estimated in the recent literature, and with the argument that the impact of fiscal stimulus will be greater when banking systems are dysfunctional and monetary policy is constrained by the zero bound. — Miguel Almunia, Agustin Benetrix, Barry Eichengreen, Kevin H. O’Rourke and Gisela Rua

304 citations

ReportDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used variacion geografica plausiblemente exogena in the reduccion de the demanda interna causada by the Gran Recesion in Espana to document the existence of a robusta relacion causal negativa a nivel of empresa entre cambios provocados by la demanda in las ventas internas and in the flujos de exportaciones.
Abstract: En este articulo utilizamos variacion geografica plausiblemente exogena en la reduccion de la demanda interna causada por la Gran Recesion en Espana para documentar la existencia de una robusta relacion causal negativa a nivel de empresa entre cambios provocados por la demanda en las ventas internas y en los flujos de exportaciones. Las empresas manufactureras espanolas cuyas ventas internas se redujeron en mayor medida durante la crisis experimentaron un mayor incremento en sus flujos de exportacion, incluso una vez que se controla por sus determinantes de oferta, tales como sus costes laborales. Esta relacion negativa entre cambios en las ventas internas y cambios en los flujos de exportacion provocados por cambios de la demanda ilustra la capacidad de los mercados de exportacion para compensar el impacto negativo de shocks de demanda locales. Los resultados presentados en el articulo se racionalizan a traves de un modelo estandar de exportaciones con heterogeneidad de empresas que permite la existencia de costes marginales de produccion no constantes. Utilizando una version de este modelo estimada de manera estructural, concluimos que las respuestas a nivel de empresa a la caida de la demanda interna en Espana podrian explicar alrededor de la mitad del espectacular incremento de las exportaciones de bienes en Espana (el denominado «milagro exportador espanol») en el periodo 2009-2013.

76 citations

Posted Content
TL;DR: This article analyzed monetary and fiscal policies in the 1930s as a "natural experiment" or "counterfactual" capable of shedding light on the impact of recent policies and found that monetary and Fiscal stimulus was effective in the period 1925-1939.
Abstract: The Great Depression of the Thirties and the Great Credit Crisis of the "Noughties had similar causes but elicited strikingly different policy responses It may still be too early to assess the effectiveness of current policy responses, but it is possible to analyze monetary and fiscal policies in the 1930s as a "natural experiment" or "counterfactual" capable of shedding light on the impact of recent policies We employ vector autoregressions, instrumental variables, and qualitative evidence for a panel of 27 countries in the period 1925-1939 The results suggest that monetary and fiscal stimulus was effective – that where it did not make a difference it was not tried The results also shed light on the debate over fiscal multipliers in episodes of financial crisis They are consistent with multipliers at the higher end of those estimated in the recent literature, consistent with the idea that the impact of fiscal stimulus will be greater when banking system are dysfunctional and monetary policy is constrained by the zero bound

65 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the effects on tax compliance of monitoring the information trails generated by firms' activities are analyzed, and the authors calculate that there would be substantial welfare gains from extending stricter tax monitoring to smaller businesses.
Abstract: This paper analyzes the effects on tax compliance of monitoring the information trails generated by firms’ activities. We exploit quasi-experimental variation generated by a Large Taxpayers Unit (LTU) in Spain, which monitors firms with more than 6 million euros in reported revenue. Firms strategically bunch below this threshold in order to avoid stricter tax enforcement. This response is stronger in sectors where transactions leave more paper trail, implying that monitoring effort and the traceability of information reported by firms are complements. We calculate that there would be substantial welfare gains from extending stricter tax monitoring to smaller businesses.

56 citations

Posted Content
01 Mar 2018
TL;DR: In this paper, a new representative firm-level dataset for Spain using detailed micro-level information provided by firms to the Spanish Commercial Registry and the Bank of Spain is presented, which is able to replicate the growth rates of output, employment and wage bill of the private sector.
Abstract: espanolLa disponibilidad de una base de datos en el ambito de empresa que sea representativa del sector productivo de una economia a escala agregada es una condicion necesaria para realizar tanto analisis de politica economica como investigacion economica fiables en multiples areas. En este trabajo, se documenta la construccion de una nueva base de datos de empresas espanolas utilizando informacion detallada a escala microeconomica proporcionada por las empresas al Registro Mercantil y al Banco de Espana. La comparacion con los agregados que emergen de la Contabilidad Nacional sirve para ilustrar como la nueva base de datos de naturaleza microeconomica es capaz de replicar las tasas de crecimiento del producto, el empleo y la remuneracion de asalariados del sector privado. Utilizando las estadisticas ofi ciales del Instituto Nacional de Estadistica (INE), el analisis presentado muestra como la base de datos resultante cubre mas del 80 % de las empresas registradas en el censo del DIRCE en el periodo 2000-2013 y, de manera mas relevante, la base de datos es capaz de replicar la distribucion de empresas por tamano de la economia de mercado, excluyendo el sector financiero, de Espana. El mismo analisis de representatividad se realiza para el sector industrial, mostrando que este sector esta particularmente bien representado en la nueva base de datos. EnglishThe availability of a firm-level database that represents the productive sector of an economy at the aggregate level is a necessary condition to undertake both reliable policy analysis and economic research in multiple areas. In this paper, we document the construction of a new representative firm-level dataset for Spain using detailed micro-level information provided by firms to the Spanish Commercial Registry and the Bank of Spain. A comparison with National Accounts figures serves to illustrate that the new micro-dataset is able to replicate the growth rates of output, employment and wage bill of the private sector. Using official statistics from the National Institute of Statistics (INE), we show that the resulting dataset covers more than 80% of firms registered in the census over the years 2000-2013 and, more importantly, the resulting dataset replicates the fi rm size distribution of the Spanish non-financial market economy. The same representativeness analysis is done for the manufacturing sector indicating that this sector is particularly well-represented in the dataset.

47 citations


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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated conditions sufficient for identification of average treatment effects using instrumental variables and showed that the existence of valid instruments is not sufficient to identify any meaningful average treatment effect.
Abstract: We investigate conditions sufficient for identification of average treatment effects using instrumental variables. First we show that the existence of valid instruments is not sufficient to identify any meaningful average treatment effect. We then establish that the combination of an instrument and a condition on the relation between the instrument and the participation status is sufficient for identification of a local average treatment effect for those who can be induced to change their participation status by changing the value of the instrument. Finally we derive the probability limit of the standard IV estimator under these conditions. It is seen to be a weighted average of local average treatment effects.

3,154 citations

Posted Content
TL;DR: This paper studied the behavior of money, credit, and macroeconomic indicators over the long run based on a newly constructed historical dataset for 12 developed countries over the years 1870-2008, utilizing the data to study rare events associated with financial crisis episodes.
Abstract: The crisis of 2008-09 has focused attention on money and credit fluctuations, financial crises, and policy responses. In this paper we study the behavior of money, credit, and macroeconomic indicators over the long run based on a newly constructed historical dataset for 12 developed countries over the years 1870-2008, utilizing the data to study rare events associated with financial crisis episodes. We present new evidence that leverage in the financial sector has increased strongly in the second half of the twentieth century as shown by a decoupling of money and credit aggregates, and we also find a decline in safe assets on banks' balance sheets. We also show for the first time how monetary policy responses to financial crises have been more aggressive post-1945, but how despite these policies the output costs of crises have remained large. Importantly, we can also show that credit growth is a powerful predictor of financial crises, suggesting that such crises are

2,021 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article studied the behavior of money, credit, and macroeconomic indicators over the long run based on a new historical dataset for 14 countries over the years 1870-2008 and found that credit growth is a powerful predictor of financial crises, suggesting that policymakers ignore credit at their peril.
Abstract: The financial crisis has refocused attention on money and credit fluctuations, financial crises, and policy responses. We study the behavior of money, credit, and macroeconomic indicators over the long run based on a new historical dataset for 14 countries over the years 1870-2008. Total credit has increased strongly relative to output and money in the second half of the twentieth century. Monetary policy responses to financial crises have also been more aggressive, but the output costs of crises have remained large. Credit growth is a powerful predictor of financial crises, suggesting that policymakers ignore credit at their peril. (JEL E32, E44, E52, G01, N10, N20)

1,451 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explain the key factors that determine the output multiplier of government purchases in New Keynesian models, through a series of simple examples that can be solved analytically.
Abstract: This paper explains the key factors that determine the output multiplier of government purchases in New Keynesian models, through a series of simple examples that can be solved analytically. Sticky prices or wages allow for larger multipliers than in a neoclassical model, though the size of the multiplier depends crucially on the monetary policy response. A multiplier well in excess of 1 is possible when monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound, and in this case welfare increases if government purchases expand to partially flll the output gap that arises from the inability to lower interest rates.

879 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: For US annual data that include World War II, the estimated multiplier for temporary defense spending is 04-05 contemporaneously and 06-07 over 2 years if the change in defense spending was “permanent” (gauged by Ramey's defense news variable), the multipliers are higher by 01-02 Since all estimated multipliers were significantly less than 1, greater spending crowds out other components of GDP, particularly investment as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: For US annual data that include World War II, the estimated multiplier for temporary defense spending is 04–05 contemporaneously and 06–07 over 2 years If the change in defense spending is “permanent” (gauged by Ramey's defense news variable), the multipliers are higher by 01–02 Since all estimated multipliers are significantly less than 1, greater spending crowds out other components of GDP, particularly investment The lack of good instruments prevents estimation of reliable multipliers for nondefense purchases; multipliers in the literature of two or more likely reflect reverse causation from GDP to nondefense purchases Increases in average marginal income tax rates (measured by a newly constructed time series) have significantly negative effects on GDP When interpreted as a tax multiplier, the magnitude is around 11 The combination of the estimated spending and tax multipliers implies that the balanced-budget multiplier for defense spending is negative We have some evidence that tax changes affect GDP mainly through substitution effects, rather than wealth effects

845 citations