Mikael Hagenbo

Abstract: Amnet militarteknik utgar fran att tekniska system ar officerens arbetsredskap och att en forstaelse for och kunskap om dessa verktyg ar central for att kunna utova professionen framgangsrikt. Denn ...

Abstract: Five technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish Defence University. The task given by the Swedish ...

Abstract: A concept called Military Utility is proposed for the study of the use of technology in military operations. The proposed concept includes a three-level structure representing key features and their detailed components. On basic level the Military Utility of a technical system, to a military actor, in a specific context, is a compound measure of the military effectiveness, of the assessed technical system's suitability to the military capability system and of the affordability. The concept is derived through conceptual analysis and is based on related concepts used in social sciences, the military domain and Systems Engineering. It is argued that the concept has qualitative explanatory powers and can support military decision-making regarding technology in forecasts, defense planning, development, utilization and the lessons learned process. The suggested concept is expected to contribute to the development of the science of Military-Technology and to be found useful to actors related to defense.

Abstract: Flaws in computer software or hardware that are as yet unknown to the public, known as zero-day vulnerabilities, are an increasingly sought-after resource by actors conducting cyber operations. While the objective pursued is commonly defensive, as in protecting own systems and networks, cyber operations may also involve exploiting identified vulnerabilities for intelligence collection or to produce military effects. The weapon zing and stockpiling of such vulnerabilities by various actors, or even the intentional implantation into cyberspace infrastructure, is a trend that currently resembles an arms race. An open question is how to measure the utility that access to these exploitable vulnerabilities provides for military purposes, and how to contrast and compare this to the possible adverse societal consequences that withholding disclosure of them may result in, such as loss of privacy or impeded freedom of the press. This paper presents a case study focusing on the Heart bleed bug, used as a tool in an offensive cyber operation. We introduce a model to estimate the adoption rate of an implanted flaw in Open SSL, derived by fitting collected real-world data. Our calculations show that reaching a global adoption of at least 50 % would take approximately three years from the time of release, given that the vulnerability remains undiscovered, while surpassing 75 % adoption would take an estimated four years. The paper concludes that while exploiting zero-day vulnerabilities may indeed be of significant military utility, such operations take time. They may also incur non-negligible risks of collateral damage and other societal costs.

Abstract: The Military Utility Assessment of Future Technologies (MUAFT) method was developed as a cost-efficient alternative to methods such as NATO's Disruptive Technology Assessment Games, to be used as a part of the Swedish Armed Forces' long-term capability development process. The question addressed in this study is whether MUAFT can be considered to have validity in its context and thus if it has potential to be useful to other small to medium size states. The analysis was based on an operationalization of Clark's framework for science and technology intelligence analysis, combined with a military capability centric view of military utility. MUAFT reports from 2012 to 2018 were reviewed in terms of how they satisfy five key criteria. The study shows that MUAFT provides utility, if used by a suitably composed group of experts, who are aware of the method's limitations. The limitations mainly originate from a lack of explicit support for assessing the impact of forces for change, other than technological forces, on military capability development. The expert group serves as the synthesizing bridge between technology forecasts and military utility assessments. Therefore, comprehensive expertise is needed in various military technology specialisations, in the sponsor's military capabilities and in subjects necessary to master in order to assess other influential societal forces for change.