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Milan M. Ćirković

Bio: Milan M. Ćirković is an academic researcher from University of Oxford. The author has contributed to research in topics: Extraterrestrial intelligence & Anthropic principle. The author has an hindex of 20, co-authored 138 publications receiving 1730 citations. Previous affiliations of Milan M. Ćirković include University of Belgrade Faculty of Electrical Engineering & Stony Brook University.


Papers
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Book
01 Jan 2008
TL;DR: In this paper, a system-based risk analysis of global catastrophic risks is presented, with a focus on long-term astrophysical processes and the future of humanity, and a discussion of human tendency in responses to apocalyptic threats.
Abstract: Acknowledgements Foreword Introduction I BACKGROUND Long-term astrophysical processes Evolution theory and the future of humanity Millenial tendencies in responses to apocalyptic threats Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of global risks Observation selection effects and global catastrophic risks Systems-based risk analysis Catastrophes and insurance Public policy towards catastrophe II RISKS FROM NATURE Super-volcanism and other geophysical processes of catastrophic import Hazards from comets and asteroids Influence of Supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, solar flares, and cosmic rays on the terrestrial environment III RISKS FROM UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES Climate change and global risk Plagues and pandemics: past, present, and future Artificial Intelligence as a positive and negative factor in global risk Big troubles, imagined and real IV RISKS FROM HOSTILE ACTS Catastrophe, social collapse, and and human extinction The continuing threat of nuclear war Catastrophic nuclear terrorism: a preventable peril Biotechnology and biosecurity Nanotechnology as global catastrophic risk The totalitarian threat Author's biographies Index

358 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is shown that the Drake equation tacitly relies on unverified assumptions on both the physicochemical history of the authors' galaxy and the properties of advanced intelligent communities to form prerequisites for quantification of therake equation parameters.
Abstract: We critically investigate some evolutionary aspects of the famous Drake equation, which is usually presented as the central guide for research on extraterrestrial intelligence. It is shown that the Drake equation tacitly relies on unverified assumptions on both the physicochemical history of our galaxy and the properties of advanced intelligent communities. In this manner, the conventional approach fails to take into account various evolutionary processes forming prerequisites for quantification of the Drake equation parameters. The importance of recent results of Lineweaver and collaborators on chemical build-up of inhabitable planets for the search for extraterrestrial intelligence is emphasized. Two important evolutionary effects are briefly discussed, and the resolution of the difficulties within the context of the phase-transition astrobiological models is sketched.

94 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is suggested that the outer regions of the Galactic disk are the most likely locations for advanced SETI targets, and that sophisticated intelligent communities will tend to migrate outward through the Galaxy as their capacities of information-processing increase, for both thermodynamical and astrochemical reasons.

71 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A review of Fermi's paradox can be found in this article where the authors analyze the often tacit methodological assumptions built into various answers to this puzzle and attempt a new classification of the numerous solutions proposed in an already huge literature on the subject.
Abstract: We review Fermi's paradox (or the 'Great Silence' problem), not only arguably the oldest and crucial problem for the Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence (SETI), but also a conundrum of profound scientific, philosophical and cultural importance. By a simple analysis of observation selection effects, the correct resolution of Fermi's paradox is certain to tell us something about the future of humanity. Already a more than three quarters of a century old puzzle - and a quarter of century since the last major review paper in the field by G. David Brin - Fermi's paradox has generated many ingenious discussions and hypotheses. We analyze the often tacit methodological assumptions built into various answers to this puzzle and attempt a new classification of the numerous solutions proposed in an already huge literature on the subject. Finally, we consider the ramifications of various classes of hypotheses for the practical SETI projects. Somewhat paradoxically, it seems that the class of (neo)catastrophic hypotheses gives, on balance, the strongest justification for guarded optimism regarding our current and near-future SETI efforts.

71 citations

MonographDOI
01 Jun 2012
TL;DR: Astrobiology as the Neo-Copernican synthesis of Darwinism as mentioned in this paper is a natural extension of evolutionary biology, and it can be seen as an evolutionary extension of natural science.
Abstract: Introduction Acknowledgements 1. Astrobiology: the colour out of space? 2. Cosmology, life, and duration of the past 3. Cosmology, life, and selection effects 4. Cosmology, life, and the archipelago 5. Astrobiology as a natural extension of Darwinism 6. Rare Earths and the continuity thesis 7. SETI and its discontents 8. Natural and artificial: cosmic domain of Arnheim 9. Astrobiology as the neo-Copernican synthesis? Index.

66 citations


Cited by
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Journal ArticleDOI

[...]

08 Dec 2001-BMJ
TL;DR: There is, I think, something ethereal about i —the square root of minus one, which seems an odd beast at that time—an intruder hovering on the edge of reality.
Abstract: There is, I think, something ethereal about i —the square root of minus one. I remember first hearing about it at school. It seemed an odd beast at that time—an intruder hovering on the edge of reality. Usually familiarity dulls this sense of the bizarre, but in the case of i it was the reverse: over the years the sense of its surreal nature intensified. It seemed that it was impossible to write mathematics that described the real world in …

33,785 citations

01 Dec 1982
TL;DR: In this article, it was shown that any black hole will create and emit particles such as neutrinos or photons at just the rate that one would expect if the black hole was a body with a temperature of (κ/2π) (ħ/2k) ≈ 10−6 (M/M)K where κ is the surface gravity of the body.
Abstract: QUANTUM gravitational effects are usually ignored in calculations of the formation and evolution of black holes. The justification for this is that the radius of curvature of space-time outside the event horizon is very large compared to the Planck length (Għ/c3)1/2 ≈ 10−33 cm, the length scale on which quantum fluctuations of the metric are expected to be of order unity. This means that the energy density of particles created by the gravitational field is small compared to the space-time curvature. Even though quantum effects may be small locally, they may still, however, add up to produce a significant effect over the lifetime of the Universe ≈ 1017 s which is very long compared to the Planck time ≈ 10−43 s. The purpose of this letter is to show that this indeed may be the case: it seems that any black hole will create and emit particles such as neutrinos or photons at just the rate that one would expect if the black hole was a body with a temperature of (κ/2π) (ħ/2k) ≈ 10−6 (M/M)K where κ is the surface gravity of the black hole1. As a black hole emits this thermal radiation one would expect it to lose mass. This in turn would increase the surface gravity and so increase the rate of emission. The black hole would therefore have a finite life of the order of 1071 (M/M)−3 s. For a black hole of solar mass this is much longer than the age of the Universe. There might, however, be much smaller black holes which were formed by fluctuations in the early Universe2. Any such black hole of mass less than 1015 g would have evaporated by now. Near the end of its life the rate of emission would be very high and about 1030 erg would be released in the last 0.1 s. This is a fairly small explosion by astronomical standards but it is equivalent to about 1 million 1 Mton hydrogen bombs. It is often said that nothing can escape from a black hole. But in 1974, Stephen Hawking realized that, owing to quantum effects, black holes should emit particles with a thermal distribution of energies — as if the black hole had a temperature inversely proportional to its mass. In addition to putting black-hole thermodynamics on a firmer footing, this discovery led Hawking to postulate 'black hole explosions', as primordial black holes end their lives in an accelerating release of energy.

2,947 citations

Book ChapterDOI
31 Jan 1963

2,885 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
01 Jan 1986
TL;DR: The New York Review ofBooks as mentioned in this paper is now over twenty years old and it has attracted controversy since its inception, but it is the controversies that attract the interest of the reader and to which the history, especially an admittedly impressionistic survey, must give some attention.
Abstract: It comes as something ofa surprise to reflect that the New York Review ofBooks is now over twenty years old. Even people of my generation (that is, old enough to remember the revolutionary 196os but not young enough to have taken a very exciting part in them) think of the paper as eternally youthful. In fact, it has gone through years of relatively quiet life, yet, as always in a competitive journalistic market, it is the controversies that attract the interest of the reader and to which the history (especially an admittedly impressionistic survey that tries to include something of the intellectual context in which a journal has operated) must give some attention. Not all the attacks which the New York Review has attracted, both early in its career and more recently, are worth more than a brief summary. What do we now make, for example, of Richard Kostelanetz's forthright accusation that 'The New York Review was from its origins destined to publicize Random House's (and especially [Jason] Epstein's) books and writers'?1 Well, simply that, even if the statistics bear out the charge (and Kostelanetz provides some suggestive evidence to support it, at least with respect to some early issues), there is nothing surprising in a market economy about a publisher trying to push his books through the pages of a journal edited by his friends. True, the New York Review has not had room to review more than around fifteen books in each issue and there could be a bias in the selection of

2,430 citations

01 Jan 2005
TL;DR: The Monthly Notices as mentioned in this paper is one of the three largest general primary astronomical research publications in the world, published by the Royal Astronomical Society (RAE), and it is the most widely cited journal in astronomy.
Abstract: Monthly Notices is one of the three largest general primary astronomical research publications. It is an international journal, published by the Royal Astronomical Society. This article 1 describes its publication policy and practice.

2,091 citations