Mohsen Naghavi

Bio: Mohsen Naghavi is an academic researcher from Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. The author has contributed to research in topics: Population & Mortality rate. The author has an hindex of 139, co-authored 381 publications receiving 169048 citations. Previous affiliations of Mohsen Naghavi include Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust & Public Health Foundation of India.

Ischemic Heart Disease Worldwide, 1990 to 2013 Estimates From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Abstract: Ischemic heart disease (IHD) was responsible for 8.1 million deaths in 2013 (95% uncertainty interval, 7.3–8.8 million), the most recent year estimated, which was 14.8% of deaths worldwide (95% uncertainty interval, 13.4%–15.8%). IHD was the leading cause of death globally among men and women in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, it was responsible for nearly half of all deaths from cardiovascular disease, causing as many deaths as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, cirrhosis, lung cancer, and liver cancer combined. There was an increase of 42% (95% uncertainty interval, 36%–48%) in the number of IHD deaths since 1990. The number of men dying …

Mortality due to road injuries in the states of India: the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990–2017

Abstract: Summary Background A systematic understanding of population-level trends in deaths due to road injuries at the subnational level over time for India's 1·4 billion people, by age, sex, and type of road user is not readily available; we aimed to fill this knowledge gap. Methods As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, we estimated the rate of deaths due to road injuries in each state of India from 1990 to 2017 based on several verbal autopsy data sources. We calculated the number of deaths and death rate for road injuries by type of road user, and assessed the age and sex distribution of these deaths over time. Based on the trends of the age-standardised death rate from 1990 to 2017, we projected the age-standardised death rate to 2030 to assess if the states of India would meet the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target to halve the death rate for road injuries from 2015 by 2020 or 2030. We calculated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for the point estimates. Findings In 2017, 218 876 deaths (95% UI 201 734 to 231 141) due to road injuries occurred in India, with an age-standardised death rate for road injuries of 17·2 deaths (15·7 to 18·1) per 100 000 population, which was much higher in males (25·7 deaths [23·5 to 27·4] per 100 000) than in females (8·5 deaths [7·2 to 9·1] per 100 000). The number of deaths due to road injuries in India increased by 58·7% (43·6 to 74·7) from 1990 to 2017, but the age-standardised death rate decreased slightly, by 9·2% (0·6 to 18·3). In 2017, pedestrians accounted for 76 729 (35·1%) of all deaths due to road injuries, motorcyclists accounted for 67 524 (30·9%), motor vehicle occupants accounted for 57 802 (26·4%), and cyclists accounted for 15 324 (7·0%). India had a higher age-standardised death rate for road injury among motorcyclists (4·9 deaths [3·9–5·4] per 100 000 population) and cyclists (1·2 deaths [0·9–1·4] per 100 000 population) than the global average. Road injury was the leading cause of death in males aged 15 to 39 years in India in 2017, and the second leading cause in this age group for both sexes combined. The overall age-standardised death rate for road injuries varied by up to 2·6 times between states in 2017. Wide variations were seen between the states in the percentage change in age-standardised death rate for road injuries from 1990 to 2017, ranging from a reduction of 38·2% (22·3 to 51·7) in Delhi to an increase of 17·0% (0·6 to 34·7) in Odisha. If the trends estimated up to 2017 were to continue, no state in India or India overall would achieve the SDG 2020 target in 2020 or even in 2030. Interpretation India's contribution to the global number of deaths due to road injuries is increasing, and the country is unlikely to meet the SDG targets if the trends up to 2017 continue. India needs to implement evidence-based road safety interventions, promote strong policies and traffic law enforcement, have better road and vehicle design, and improve care for road injuries at the state level to meet the SDG goal. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Indian Council of Medical Research, Department of Health Research, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India.

Fatores de risco relacionados à carga global de doença do Brasil e Unidades Federadas, 2015

Abstract: RESUMO: Objetivo: Analisar a carga global de doenca, quanto aos anos de vida ajustados por incapacidade (disability adjusted life years - DALYs) atribuidos a fatores de risco (FRs) selecionados, para Brasil e 27 Unidades Federadas (UFs). Metodos: Foram utilizadas bases de dados do estudo Carga Global de Doenca (Global Burden of Disease - GBD) para Brasil e UFs estimando a sintese de exposicao de risco (summary exposure value - SEV) para FRs selecionados, incluindo os ambientais, comportamentais, metabolicos e suas combinacoes. Os DALYs foram usados como metrica principal do estudo. Construiu-se o ranking dos principais FRs entre 1990 e 2015, com comparacoes por sexo e UF. Resultados: Os FRs analisados explicariam 38,8% da perda de DALYs no pais. A dieta inadequada foi a principal causa de DALYs em 2015. Em homens, a dieta inadequada contribuiu com 12,2% dos DALYs, e, em mulheres, com 11,1% deles. Outros FRs importantes foram: pressao arterial sistolica elevada, indice de massa corporal (IMC) elevado, tabagismo, glicose serica elevada; entre homens, destaca-se o uso de alcool e drogas. Os principais FRs foram metabolicos e comportamentais. Na maioria das UFs, predominou a dieta inadequada, seguida da pressao arterial elevada. Conclusao: A dieta inadequada lidera o ranking de FRs para Brasil e UF. Os homens estao mais expostos aos FRs comportamentais, e as mulheres, aos metabolicos.

The burden of disease in Spain: results from the Global Burden of Disease 2016.

Abstract: Background and objectives The global burden of disease (GBD) project measures the health of populations worldwide on an annual basis, and results are available by country We used the estimates of the GBD to summarise the state of health in Spain in 2016 and report trends in mortality and morbidity from 1990 to 2016 Material and methods GBD 2016 estimated disease burden due to 333 diseases and injuries, and 84 risk factors The GBD list of causes is hierarchical and includes 3 top level categories, namely: (1) communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; (2) non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and (3) injuries Mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), risk factors, and progress towards the sustainable development goals (SDGs) are presented based on the GBD 2016 data in Spain Results There were 418,516 deaths in Spain in 2016, from a total population of 465 million, and 805% of them occurred in those aged 70 years and older Overall, NCDs were the main cause of death: 388,617 (95% uncertainty interval 374,959–402,486), corresponding to 928% of all deaths They were followed by 36% due to injuries with 15,052 (13,902–17,107) deaths, and 35% communicable diseases with 14,847 (13,208–16,482) deaths The 5 leading specific causes of death were ischaemic heart disease (IHD, 146% of all deaths), Alzheimer disease and other dementias (136%), stroke (71%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (69%), and lung cancer (50%) Remarkable increases in mortality from 1990 to 2016 were observed in other cancers, lower respiratory infections, chronic kidney disease, and other cardiovascular disease, among others On the contrary, road injuries moved down from 8th to 32nd position, and diabetes from 6th to 10th Low back and neck pain became the number one cause of DALYs in Spain in 2016, just surpassing IHD, while Alzheimer disease moved from 9th to 3rd position The greatest changes in DALYs were observed for road injuries dropping from 4th to 16th position, and congenital disorders from 17th to 35th; conversely, oral disorders rose from 25th to 17th Overall, smoking is by far the most relevant risk factor in Spain, followed by high blood pressure, high body mass index, alcohol use, and high fasting plasma glucose Finally, Spain scored 743 of 100 points in the SDG index classification in 2016, and the main national drivers of detrimental health in SDGs were alcohol consumption, smoking and child obesity An increase to 803 points is projected in 2030 Conclusion Low back and neck pain was the most important contributor of disability in Spain in 2016 There has seen a remarkable increase in the burden due to Alzheimer disease and other dementias Tobacco remains the most important health issue to address in Spain

Cancer statistics, 2019.

Abstract: Each year, the American Cancer Society estimates the numbers of new cancer cases and deaths that will occur in the United States and compiles the most recent data on cancer incidence, mortality, and survival. Incidence data, available through 2015, were collected by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program; the National Program of Cancer Registries; and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries. Mortality data, available through 2016, were collected by the National Center for Health Statistics. In 2019, 1,762,450 new cancer cases and 606,880 cancer deaths are projected to occur in the United States. Over the past decade of data, the cancer incidence rate (2006-2015) was stable in women and declined by approximately 2% per year in men, whereas the cancer death rate (2007-2016) declined annually by 1.4% and 1.8%, respectively. The overall cancer death rate dropped continuously from 1991 to 2016 by a total of 27%, translating into approximately 2,629,200 fewer cancer deaths than would have been expected if death rates had remained at their peak. Although the racial gap in cancer mortality is slowly narrowing, socioeconomic inequalities are widening, with the most notable gaps for the most preventable cancers. For example, compared with the most affluent counties, mortality rates in the poorest counties were 2-fold higher for cervical cancer and 40% higher for male lung and liver cancers during 2012-2016. Some states are home to both the wealthiest and the poorest counties, suggesting the opportunity for more equitable dissemination of effective cancer prevention, early detection, and treatment strategies. A broader application of existing cancer control knowledge with an emphasis on disadvantaged groups would undoubtedly accelerate progress against cancer.

Cancer statistics, 2018

Abstract: Each year, the American Cancer Society estimates the numbers of new cancer cases and deaths that will occur in the United States and compiles the most recent data on cancer incidence, mortality, and survival. Incidence data, available through 2014, were collected by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program; the National Program of Cancer Registries; and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries. Mortality data, available through 2015, were collected by the National Center for Health Statistics. In 2018, 1,735,350 new cancer cases and 609,640 cancer deaths are projected to occur in the United States. Over the past decade of data, the cancer incidence rate (2005-2014) was stable in women and declined by approximately 2% annually in men, while the cancer death rate (2006-2015) declined by about 1.5% annually in both men and women. The combined cancer death rate dropped continuously from 1991 to 2015 by a total of 26%, translating to approximately 2,378,600 fewer cancer deaths than would have been expected if death rates had remained at their peak. Of the 10 leading causes of death, only cancer declined from 2014 to 2015. In 2015, the cancer death rate was 14% higher in non-Hispanic blacks (NHBs) than non-Hispanic whites (NHWs) overall (death rate ratio [DRR], 1.14; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.13-1.15), but the racial disparity was much larger for individuals aged <65 years (DRR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.29-1.32) compared with those aged ≥65 years (DRR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.06-1.09) and varied substantially by state. For example, the cancer death rate was lower in NHBs than NHWs in Massachusetts for all ages and in New York for individuals aged ≥65 years, whereas for those aged <65 years, it was 3 times higher in NHBs in the District of Columbia (DRR, 2.89; 95% CI, 2.16-3.91) and about 50% higher in Wisconsin (DRR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.56-2.02), Kansas (DRR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.25-1.81), Louisiana (DRR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.38-1.60), Illinois (DRR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.39-1.57), and California (DRR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.38-1.54). Larger racial inequalities in young and middle-aged adults probably partly reflect less access to high-quality health care. CA Cancer J Clin 2018;68:7-30. © 2018 American Cancer Society.