Mohsen Naghavi

Bio: Mohsen Naghavi is an academic researcher from Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. The author has contributed to research in topics: Population & Mortality rate. The author has an hindex of 139, co-authored 381 publications receiving 169048 citations. Previous affiliations of Mohsen Naghavi include Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust & Public Health Foundation of India.

O193 After the breakup: ischemic heart disease in the former Soviet Union countries, 1990-2010. The Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study

Abstract: R A L A B ST R A C T S Methods: 12775 patients ( 70 years) with coronary disease – CABG, PCI or an acute coronary syndrome were identified over 14 years and 8456 were interviewed and examined at least 6 months later using standardized methods and instruments across all surveys. Results: Prevalence of smoking remained unchanged overall in the three surveys (21.0%, 19.9%,18.2%; p1⁄40.55) but increased in younger patients. Prevalence of obesity (BMI 30 kg/m) and central obesity (waist circumference 102 cm men and 88 cm women) increased (31.9%, 33.3%, 38.5%; p1⁄40.007) and (50.5%, 50.5%, 57.2%; p1⁄40.04) respectively. Prevalence of high blood pressure 140/90 mmHg ( 140/80 mmHg in diabetes) decreased (53.5%, 52.4%, 44.5%; p1⁄40.01) as the therapeutic control in patients on blood pressure lowering medication improved from 45.7% to 55.3% (p1⁄40.01). The proportions with elevated LDL cholesterol 1.8 mmol/l decreased (95.7%, 80.3%, 75.3%; p<0.001) as therapeutic control in patients on lipid lowering medication improved from 6.1% to 25.6% (p<0.0001). Prevalence of self-reported diabetes increased across the three surveys: 18.5%, 23.8%, 27.2%) but there was no significant change in the prevalence of undetected diabetes: 10.5%, 11.1%, 11.5%. Prescriptions for cardioprotective medications increased between the first and second surveys, with no further significant changes between the second and third surveys; antiplatelet therapies (85.2%, 94.2%, 94.8%), beta-blockers (62.6%, 81.6%, 80.6%), ACE/ARB’s (42.3%, 71.5%; 70.7%), statins (55.2%, 88.8%, 88.6%). Conclusion: Adverse lifestyle trends among European coronary patients with alarming increases in obesity, central obesity and diabetes, are a cause for concern. Despite the high use of cardioprotective medication, substantial proportions of patients still remain above the recommended blood pressure and lipid targets. All coronary patients require a modern preventive cardiology programme to help them achieve the lifestyle, risk factors and therapeutic targets for CVD prevention. Disclosure of Interest: K. Kotseva Grant/research support from: Travel grants to attend scientific meetings from F Hoffman-La Roche and Boehringer Ingelheim, D. De Bacquer: None Declared, C. Jennings: None Declared, V. Gyberg Grant/research support from: Research Grants from the Swedish Heart Lung Foundation, G. De Backer Consultancy for: Abbott, MSD and Astra Zeneca, L. Ryden Grant/research support from: Research Grants from the Swedish Heart Lung Foundation, the Swedish Diabetes Association, AFA insurance and fromRoche, Consultancy for: Bayer, Roche, BMS and SanofiAventis, D.WoodGrant/research support from: Pfizer, Consultancy for: Astra Zeneca, Glaxo Smith Kline, Menarini and MSD

Burden of diarrhea in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990â2015: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study

Abstract: Objectives: Diarrheal diseases (DD) are an important cause of disease burden, especially in children in low-income settings. DD can also impact children�s potential livelihood through growth faltering, cognitive impairment, and other sequelae. Methods: As part of the Global Burden of Disease study, we estimated DD burden, and the burden attributable to specific risk factors and etiologies, in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) between 1990 and 2015. We calculated disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs)�the sum of years of life lost and years lived with disability�for both sexes and all ages. Results: We estimate that over 103,692 diarrhea deaths occurred in the EMR in 2015 (95 uncertainty interval: 87,018�124,692), and the mortality rate was 16.0 deaths per 100,000 persons (95 UI: 13.4�19.2). The majority of these deaths occurred in children under 5 (63.3) (65,670 deaths, 95 UI: 53,640�79,486). DALYs per 100,000 ranged from 304 (95 UI 228�400) in Kuwait to 38,900 (95 UI 25,900�54,300) in Somalia. Conclusions: Our findings will guide evidence-based health policy decisions for interventions to achieve the ultimate goal of reducing the DD burden. © 2017, The Author(s).

All-cause excess mortality and COVID-19-related deaths in Iran.

Abstract: Background: Iran reported its first COVID-19 deaths on February 19, 2020 and announced 1284 deaths with a laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection by March 19, 2020 (end of the winter 1398 SH). We estimated all-cause excess mortality, compared to the historical trends, to obtain an indirect estimate of COVID-19-related deaths. Methods: We assembled time series of the seasonal number of all-cause mortalities from March 21, 2013 (spring of 1392 SH) to March 19, 2020 (winter 1398 SH) for each province of Iran and nationwide with the vital statistics data from the National Organization for Civil Registration (NOCR). We estimated the expected seasonal mortality and excess mortality (the difference between the number of registered and expected deaths). Moreover, we reviewed the provincial number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 to assess their association with excess deaths. Results: The results of our analysis showed around 7507 (95% CI: 3,350 - 11,664) and 5180 (95% CI: 1,023 - 9,337) all-cause excess mortality in fall and winter, respectively. There were 3778 excess deaths occurred in Qom, Gilan, Mazandaran, and Golestan provinces in the winter, all among the COVID-19 epicenters based on the number of confirmed cases. Conclusion: We think most of the excess deaths in the winter were related to COVID-19. Also, we think the influenza epidemic might have been the main reason for the excess mortality in the fall and parts of excess deaths in the winter of 1398 SH. Moreover, a review of all available clinical and paraclinical records and through analyses of the surveillance data for severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) can help to obtain a more accurate estimate of COVID-19 mortality.

Cancer statistics, 2019.

Abstract: Each year, the American Cancer Society estimates the numbers of new cancer cases and deaths that will occur in the United States and compiles the most recent data on cancer incidence, mortality, and survival. Incidence data, available through 2015, were collected by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program; the National Program of Cancer Registries; and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries. Mortality data, available through 2016, were collected by the National Center for Health Statistics. In 2019, 1,762,450 new cancer cases and 606,880 cancer deaths are projected to occur in the United States. Over the past decade of data, the cancer incidence rate (2006-2015) was stable in women and declined by approximately 2% per year in men, whereas the cancer death rate (2007-2016) declined annually by 1.4% and 1.8%, respectively. The overall cancer death rate dropped continuously from 1991 to 2016 by a total of 27%, translating into approximately 2,629,200 fewer cancer deaths than would have been expected if death rates had remained at their peak. Although the racial gap in cancer mortality is slowly narrowing, socioeconomic inequalities are widening, with the most notable gaps for the most preventable cancers. For example, compared with the most affluent counties, mortality rates in the poorest counties were 2-fold higher for cervical cancer and 40% higher for male lung and liver cancers during 2012-2016. Some states are home to both the wealthiest and the poorest counties, suggesting the opportunity for more equitable dissemination of effective cancer prevention, early detection, and treatment strategies. A broader application of existing cancer control knowledge with an emphasis on disadvantaged groups would undoubtedly accelerate progress against cancer.

Cancer statistics, 2018

Abstract: Each year, the American Cancer Society estimates the numbers of new cancer cases and deaths that will occur in the United States and compiles the most recent data on cancer incidence, mortality, and survival. Incidence data, available through 2014, were collected by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program; the National Program of Cancer Registries; and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries. Mortality data, available through 2015, were collected by the National Center for Health Statistics. In 2018, 1,735,350 new cancer cases and 609,640 cancer deaths are projected to occur in the United States. Over the past decade of data, the cancer incidence rate (2005-2014) was stable in women and declined by approximately 2% annually in men, while the cancer death rate (2006-2015) declined by about 1.5% annually in both men and women. The combined cancer death rate dropped continuously from 1991 to 2015 by a total of 26%, translating to approximately 2,378,600 fewer cancer deaths than would have been expected if death rates had remained at their peak. Of the 10 leading causes of death, only cancer declined from 2014 to 2015. In 2015, the cancer death rate was 14% higher in non-Hispanic blacks (NHBs) than non-Hispanic whites (NHWs) overall (death rate ratio [DRR], 1.14; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.13-1.15), but the racial disparity was much larger for individuals aged <65 years (DRR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.29-1.32) compared with those aged ≥65 years (DRR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.06-1.09) and varied substantially by state. For example, the cancer death rate was lower in NHBs than NHWs in Massachusetts for all ages and in New York for individuals aged ≥65 years, whereas for those aged <65 years, it was 3 times higher in NHBs in the District of Columbia (DRR, 2.89; 95% CI, 2.16-3.91) and about 50% higher in Wisconsin (DRR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.56-2.02), Kansas (DRR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.25-1.81), Louisiana (DRR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.38-1.60), Illinois (DRR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.39-1.57), and California (DRR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.38-1.54). Larger racial inequalities in young and middle-aged adults probably partly reflect less access to high-quality health care. CA Cancer J Clin 2018;68:7-30. © 2018 American Cancer Society.