Murray Turoff

Bio: Murray Turoff is an academic researcher from New Jersey Institute of Technology. The author has contributed to research in topics: Emergency management & Information system. The author has an hindex of 46, co-authored 231 publications receiving 18656 citations. Previous affiliations of Murray Turoff include Hoffmann-La Roche & University of Agder.

the delphi method: techniques and applications

Abstract: Cross-impact analysis is a method for revising estimated probabilities of future events in terms of estimated interactions among those events. This Report presents an elementary cross-impact model where the cross-impacts are formulated as relative probabilities. Conditions are derived for the consistency of the matrix of relative probabilities of n events. An extension also provides a necessary condition for the vector of absolute probabilities to be consistent with the relative probability matrix. An averaging technique is formulated for resolving inconsistencies in the matrix, and a nearest-point computation derived for resolving inconsistencies between the set of absolute probabilities and the matrix. Although elementary, the present model clarifies some of the conceptual problems associated with cross-impact analysis, and supplies a relatively sound basis for revising probability estimates in the limited case where interactions can be approximated by relative probabilities.

Learning Networks: A Field Guide to Teaching and Learning Online

Abstract: Computer-Mediated Communication (CMC) technologies such as electronic mail, bulletin board services, computer conferencing systems, and the World Wide Web are having a profound effect on education Learning Networks is a complete guide to the use of these new technologies at the primary, secondary, university, and adult education levels Drawing on the authors' own considerable experience of teaching and learning online, it describes the learning networks that are available as well as new examples of learning networks that can be created Part I provides a selective survey of the field: what are learning networks and who is using them, what kind of courses can be taught online, what approaches to teaching and learning are most successful online, what curriculum can best be supported by networking, and what kinds of teachers and learners benefit from this medium Part II deals exhaustively with the design and implementation of learning networks as well as the roles of teachers and learners and gives a realistic assessment of potential pitfalls In Part III the authors discuss CMC technologies as a paradigm for education in the next century (http://booksgooglefr/books?id=NFkaDHideBcC&printsec=frontcover&hl=fr#v=onepage&q&f=false)

Network Nation: Human Communication Via Computer

Abstract: A visionary book when it was first published in the late 1970s, The Network Nation has become the defining document and standard reference for the field of computer mediated communication (CMC). This revised edition adds a substantial new chapter on "superconnectivity" (invented and defined in the unabridged edition of the Online Dictionary of the English Language, 2067) that reviews the developments of the last fifteen years and updates the authors' speculations about the future.Hiltz and Turoff highlight major current organizational, educational, and public applications of CMC, integrate their theoretical understanding of the impact of CMC technology, address ethical and legal issues, and describe a scenario in 2084. They have also added a selected bibliography on the key literature.Starr Roxanne Hiltz and Murray Turoff each hold the position of Professor of Computer and Information Sciences at the New Jersey Institute of Technology. They are also members of the faculty of the Graduate School of Business at Rutgers University, Newark.

Structuring computer-mediated communication systems to avoid information overload

Abstract: Unless computer-mediated communication systems are structured, users will be overloaded with information. But structure should be imposed by individuals and user groups according to their needs and abilities, rather than through general software features.

Information Systems Success: The Quest for the Dependent Variable

Abstract: A large number of studies have been conducted during the last decade and a half attempting to identify those factors that contribute to information systems success. However, the dependent variable in these studies-I/S success-has been an elusive one to define. Different researchers have addressed different aspects of success, making comparisons difficult and the prospect of building a cumulative tradition for I/S research similarly elusive. To organize this diverse research, as well as to present a more integrated view of the concept of I/S success, a comprehensive taxonomy is introduced. This taxonomy posits six major dimensions or categories of I/S success-SYSTEM QUALITY, INFORMATION QUALITY, USE, USER SATISFACTION, INDIVIDUAL IMPACT, and ORGANIZATIONAL IMPACT. Using these dimensions, both conceptual and empirical studies are then reviewed a total of 180 articles are cited and organized according to the dimensions of the taxonomy. Finally, the many aspects of I/S success are drawn together into a descriptive model and its implications for future I/S research are discussed.

Organizational Learning: The Contributing Processes and the Literatures

Abstract: This paper differs from previous examinations of organizational learning in that it is broader in scope and more evaluative of the literatures. Four constructs related to organizational learning knowledge acquisition, information distribution, information interpretation, and organizational memory are articulated, and the literatures related to each are described and critiqued. The literature on knowledge acquisition is voluminous and multi-faceted, and so the knowledge acquisition construct is portrayed here as consisting of five subconstructs or subprocesses: 1 drawing on knowledge available at the organization's birth, 2 learning from experience, 3 learning by observing other organizations, 4 grafting on to itself components that possess knowledge needed but not possessed by the organization, and 5 noticing or searching for information about the organization's environment and performance. Examination of the related literatures indicates that much has been learned about learning from experience, but also that there is a lack of cumulative work and a lack of integration of work from different research groups. Similarly, much has been learned about organizational search, but there is a lack of conceptual work, and there is a lack of both cumulative work and syntheses with which to create a more mature literature. Congenital learning, vicarious learning, and grafting are information acquisition subprocesses about which relatively little has been learned. The literature concerning information distribution is rich and mature, but an aspect of information distribution that is central to an organization's benefitting from its learning, namely how units that possess information and units that need this information can find each other quickly and with a high likelihood, is unexplored. Information interpretation, as an organizational process, rather than an individual process, requires empirical work for further advancement. Organizational memory is much in need of systematic investigation, particularly by those whose special concerns are improving organizational learning and decision making.

A Partial Least Squares Latent Variable Modeling Approach for Measuring Interaction Effects: Results from a Monte Carlo Simulation Study and an Electronic-Mail Emotion/Adoption Study

Abstract: The ability to detect and accurately estimate the strength of interaction effects are critical issues that are fundamental to social science research in general and IS research in particular. Within the IS discipline, a significant percentage of research has been devoted to examining the conditions and contexts under which relationships may vary, often under the general umbrella of contingency theory (cf. McKeen et al. 1994, Weill and Olson 1989). In our survey of such studies, the majority failed to either detect or provide an estimate of the effect size. In cases where effect sizes are estimated, the numbers are generally small. These results have led some researchers to question both the usefulness of contingency theory and the need to detect interaction effects (e.g., Weill and Olson 1989). This paper addresses this issue by providing a new latent variable modeling approach that can give more accurate estimates of interaction effects by accounting for the measurement error that attenuates the estimated relationships. The capacity of this approach at recovering true effects in comparison to summated regression is demonstrated in a Monte Carlo study that creates a simulated data set in which the underlying true effects are known. Analysis of a second, empirical data set is included to demonstrate the technique's use within IS theory. In this second analysis, substantial direct and interaction effects of enjoyment on electronic-mail adoption are shown to exist.

Critical Inquiry in a Text-Based Environment: Computer Conferencing in Higher Education

Abstract: The purpose of this study is to provide conceptual order and a tool for the use of computer-mediated communication (CMC) and computer conferencing in supporting an educational experience. Central to the study introduced here is a model of community inquiry that constitutes three elements essential to an educational transaction—cognitive presence, social presence, and teaching presence. Indicators (key words/phrases) for each of the three elements emerged from the analysis of computer-conferencing transcripts. The indicators described represent a template or tool for researchers to analyze written transcripts, as well as a guide to educators for the optimal use of computer conferencing as a medium to facilitate an educational transaction. This research would suggest that computer conferencing has considerable potential to create a community of inquiry for educational purposes.