[1] We present the Met Office Hadley Centre's sea ice and sea surface temperature (SST) data set, HadISST1, and the nighttime marine air temperature (NMAT) data set, HadMAT1. HadISST1 replaces the global sea ice and sea surface temperature (GISST) data sets and is a unique combination of monthly globally complete fields of SST and sea ice concentration on a 1° latitude-longitude grid from 1871. The companion HadMAT1 runs monthly from 1856 on a 5° latitude-longitude grid and incorporates new corrections for the effect on NMAT of increasing deck (and hence measurement) heights. HadISST1 and HadMAT1 temperatures are reconstructed using a two-stage reduced-space optimal interpolation procedure, followed by superposition of quality-improved gridded observations onto the reconstructions to restore local detail. The sea ice fields are made more homogeneous by compensating satellite microwave-based sea ice concentrations for the impact of surface melt effects on retrievals in the Arctic and for algorithm deficiencies in the Antarctic and by making the historical in situ concentrations consistent with the satellite data. SSTs near sea ice are estimated using statistical relationships between SST and sea ice concentration. HadISST1 compares well with other published analyses, capturing trends in global, hemispheric, and regional SST well, containing SST fields with more uniform variance through time and better month-to-month persistence than those in GISST. HadMAT1 is more consistent with SST and with collocated land surface air temperatures than previous NMAT data sets.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2002JD002670

Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century

For the tropical Pacific and Atlantic oceans, internal modes of variability that lead to climatic oscillations have been recognized1,2, but in the Indian Ocean region a similar ocean–atmosphere interaction causing interannual climate variability has not yet been found3. Here we report an analysis of observational data over the past 40 years, showing a dipole mode in the Indian Ocean: a pattern of internal variability with anomalously low sea surface temperatures off Sumatra and high sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean, with accompanying wind and precipitation anomalies. The spatio-temporal links between sea surface temperatures and winds reveal a strong coupling through the precipitation field and ocean dynamics. This air–sea interaction process is unique and inherent in the Indian Ocean, and is shown to be independent of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation. The discovery of this dipole mode that accounts for about 12% of the sea surface temperature variability in the Indian Ocean—and, in its active years, also causes severe rainfall in eastern Africa and droughts in Indonesia—brightens the prospects for a long-term forecast of rainfall anomalies in the affected countries.

A Dipole Mode in the Tropical Indian Ocean

[1] Using observed data sets mainly for the period 1979–2005, we find that anomalous warming events different from conventional El Nino events occur in the central equatorial Pacific. This unique warming in the central equatorial Pacific associated with a horseshoe pattern is flanked by a colder sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) on both sides along the equator. empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of monthly tropical Pacific SSTA shows that these events are represented by the second mode that explains 12% of the variance. Since a majority of such events are not part of El Nino evolution, the phenomenon is named as El Nino Modoki (pseudo-El Nino) (“Modoki” is a classical Japanese word, which means “a similar but different thing”). The El Nino Modoki involves ocean-atmosphere coupled processes which include a unique tripolar sea level pressure pattern during the evolution, analogous to the Southern Oscillation in the case of El Nino. Hence the total entity is named as El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Modoki. The ENSO Modoki events significantly influence the temperature and precipitation over many parts of the globe. Depending on the season, the impacts over regions such as the Far East including Japan, New Zealand, western coast of United States, etc., are opposite to those of the conventional ENSO. The difference maps between the two periods of 1979–2004 and 1958–1978 for various oceanic/atmospheric variables suggest that the recent weakening of equatorial easterlies related to weakened zonal sea surface temperature gradient led to more flattening of the thermocline. This appears to be a cause of more frequent and persistent occurrence of the ENSO Modoki event during recent decades.

El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection

Since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), our understanding of the implications of climate change for coastal systems and low-lying areas (henceforth referred to as ‘coasts’) has increased substantially and six important policy-relevant messages have emerged. Coasts are experiencing the adverse consequences of hazards related to climate and sea level (very high confidence). Coasts are highly vulnerable to extreme events, such as storms, which impose substantial costs on coastal societies [6.2.1, 6.2.2, 6.5.2]. Annually, about 120 million people are exposed to tropical cyclone hazards, which killed 250,000 people from 1980 to 2000 [6.5.2]. Through the 20th century, global rise of sea level contributed to increased coastal inundation, erosion and ecosystem losses, but with considerable local and regional variation due to other factors [6.2.5, 6.4.1]. Late 20th century effects of rising temperature include loss of sea ice, thawing of permafrost and associated coastal retreat, and more frequent coral bleaching and mortality [6.2.5]. Coasts will be exposed to increasing risks, including coastal erosion, over coming decades due to climate change and sea-level rise (very high confidence). Anticipated climate-related changes include: an accelerated rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more by 2100; a further rise in sea surface temperatures by up to 3°C; an intensification of tropical and extratropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/run-off; and ocean acidification [6.3.2]. These phenomena will vary considerably at regional and local scales, but the impacts are virtually certain to be overwhelmingly negative [6.4, 6.5.3].

https://ro.uow.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1192&context=scipapers

Coastal systems and low-lying areas

During El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, the atmospheric response to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific influences ocean conditions over the remainder of the globe. This connection between ocean basins via the ''atmospheric bridge'' is reviewed through an examination of previous work augmented by analyses of 50 years of data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis project and coupled atmospheric general circulation (AGCM)-mixed layer ocean model experiments. Observational and modeling studies have now established a clear link between SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific with those in the North Pacific, north tropical Atlantic, and Indian Oceans in boreal winter and spring. ENSO-related SST anomalies also appear to be robust in the western North Pacific during summer and in the Indian Ocean during fall. While surface heat fluxes are the key component of the atmospheric bridge driving SST anomalies, Ekman transport also creates SST anomalies in the central North Pacific although the full extent of its impact requires further study. The atmospheric bridge not only influences SSTs on interannual timescales but also affects mixed layer depth (MLD), salinity, the seasonal evolution of upper-ocean temperatures, and North Pacific SST variability at lower fre- quencies. The model results indicate that a significant fraction of the dominant pattern of low-frequency (.10 yr) SST variability in the North Pacific is associated with tropical forcing. AGCM experiments suggest that the oceanic feedback on the extratropical response to ENSO is complex, but of modest amplitude. Atmosphere- ocean coupling outside of the tropical Pacific slightly modifies the atmospheric circulation anomalies in the Pacific-North America (PNA) region but these modifications appear to depend on the seasonal cycle and air- sea interactions both within and beyond the North Pacific Ocean.

The Atmospheric Bridge: The Influence of ENSO Teleconnections on Air-Sea Interaction over the Global Oceans

Impacts of Indian Ocean Dipole mode (IOD) events on global climate are estimated by correlation/regression analysis. The analysis examined land rain and temperature and 3-dimensional atmospheric variables for a 42 yr period from January 1958 to December 1999. The correlation between IOD and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is accounted for using the multiple regression technique. We used partial correlation coefficients to describe the unique contribution of IOD to climate variability, independent of ENSO. In the Indian Ocean rim countries, IOD is associated with significant temperature and rain variability manifesting 2 large-scale patterns. In one, land tem- perature and rain are anomalously high over countries west of the Indian Ocean and anomalously low to its east. In the second pattern, enhanced rainfall is found over the Asian monsoon trough, extending from Pakistan up to southern China. Also noted are IOD impacts on several regions remote from the Indian Ocean. Strong correlation is found over Europe, northeast Asia, North and South America and South Africa concurrent with IOD events. Over these regions, positive IOD events are associated with warm land surface anomalies and reduced rainfall. The troposphere above the Indian Ocean exhibits strong variability during IOD events characterized by the following structures: (1) a Walker cell anomaly over the equator; (2) a deep modulation of monsoon westerlies; and (3) a Hadley cell anomaly over the Bay of Bengal. In the extratropics, IOD is associated with equivalent barotropic geopotential anomalies. These assume annular structure in the northern hemisphere, but Rossby wave train structure in the southern hemisphere.

/pdf/possible-impacts-of-indian-ocean-dipole-mode-events-on-z93v2xkeg9.pdf

Possible impacts of Indian Ocean Dipole mode events on global climate

The relative influences of the ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events on the Indian summer rainfall were studied using observational data and an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). The composite analysis of rainfall anomalies demonstrates that the IOD, while significantly influencing the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, also significantly reduces the impact of ENSO on the Indian summer rainfall whenever these events with the same phase co-occur. The AGCM experiments have shown that during an El Nino event, the Walker circulation over the tropical Indo-Pacific region is modulated; a low-level anomalous divergence center over the western Pacific and an anomalous convergence zone over the equatorial Indian Ocean are induced. Furthermore, an anomalous zone of convergence over the Myanmar and south China regions is induced during an El Nino event. These zones of anomalous convergence are complemented by anomalous divergence over the Indian region, causing anomalous subsidence and weakened rainfall. When a strong positive IOD event simultaneously occurs with El Nino, the latter's influence on the Indian monsoon is reduced by both poles of the IOD through the following mechanism: an anomalous divergence center, as compared to the summers when an El Nino alone occurs, is introduced in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean. From this center, the anomalous divergent flow crosses the equator, and this air, while weakening the El Nino-induced divergence over the western Pacific, also leads to convergence over the Indian monsoon region. This results in the reduction of the ENSO-induced subsidence and the related rainfall deficit over the eastern flank of the Indian monsoon trough region and adjoining regions to the east. On the other hand, over the western part of the tropical Indian Ocean sector, part of the anomalous ascending motion from the warm pole of the positive IOD event subsides just to the north of the equator, moves northward, ascends, and causes surplus rainfall. This reduces the ENSO-induced rainfall deficit over western India, the western part of the monsoon trough, and parts of Pakistan. The AGCM experiments also demonstrate that positive IOD events amplify the ENSO-induced dryness over the Indonesian region.

/pdf/individual-and-combined-influences-of-enso-and-the-indian-4pn5lbhgio.pdf

Individual and Combined Influences of ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Indian Summer Monsoon

A study of the detailed spatiotemporal characteristics of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode in SST and surface winds using available observations from 1958 till 1997 is reported. The analysis is used to address several of the controversial issues regarding the IOD. One key finding of this study is that interdecadal fluctuations contribute strongly to tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) SST variability; in SST anomalies (SSTA) interdecadal variance is as strong as interannual variance. Over both the western and eastern TIO, an accelerated warming of SST after the mid-1970s is apparent. The lack of anticorrelation between western and eastern TIO SSTA occurs only in this latter half of the analysis period. In order to examine the hypothesis that the IOD is a part of ENSO evolution in the TIO, the temporal

Structure of SST and Surface Wind Variability during Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Events: COADS Observations*

The Asian summer monsoon is organized into distinct convection centers, but the mechanism for this organization is not well understood. Analysis of new satellite observations reveals that narrow mountain ranges are an important organizing agent anchoring monsoon convection centers on the windward side. The Bay of Bengal convection, in particular, features the heaviest precipitation on its eastern coast because of orographic lifting as the southwest monsoon impinges on the coastal mountains of Myanmar (also known as Burma). This is in contrast to the widely held view that this convection is centered over the open ocean as implied by coarse-resolution datasets, a view that would require an entirely different explanation for its formation. Narrow in width and modest in height (≤1 km), these mountains are hardly mentioned in conceptual depictions of the large-scale monsoon and poorly represented in global climate models. The numerical simulations of this study show that orographic rainbands are not a...

N. H. Saji

Papers

A Dipole Mode in the Tropical Indian Ocean

Possible impacts of Indian Ocean Dipole mode events on global climate

Individual and Combined Influences of ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Indian Summer Monsoon

Structure of SST and Surface Wind Variability during Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Events: COADS Observations*

Role of Narrow Mountains in Large-Scale Organization of Asian Monsoon Convection*