Nan Tian

Bio: Nan Tian is an academic researcher from University of Cape Town. The author has contributed to research in topics: Panel data & Optics. The author has an hindex of 5, co-authored 10 publications receiving 242 citations.

Military Expenditure, Economic Growth and Heterogeneity

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of military expenditure on economic growth on a large balanced panel, using an exogenous growth model and dynamic panel data methods for 106 countries over the period 1988–2010 A major focus of the paper is to consider the possibility group heterogeneity and non-linearity Having estimated the model for all of the countries in the panel and finding that military burden has a negative effect on growth in the short and long run, the panel is broken down into various groupings based upon a range of potentially relevant factors, and the robustness of the results is evaluated The factors considered are different levels of income, conflict experience, natural resources abundance, openness and aid The estimates for the different groups are remarkably consistent with those for the whole panel, providing strong support for the argument that military spending has adverse effects on growth There are, however, some intriguing results that suggest that for certain types of countries

Military expenditure and economic growth: A survey

Abstract: Until recently, a long-standing, impressively large, and growing literature on the effects of military expenditure on economic growth appeared to have failed to result in a scholarly consensus. But the availability of 20 more years of data since the thawing of the cold war has helped researchers to make progress in identifying any relation of military expenditure with economic factors. The literature is complex and difficult to summarize, with studies differing in their theoretical approach, in the empirical methods used, in the coverage of countries and time periods employed, and in their quality and statistical significance. This article extends and updates an earlier survey, now covering almost 170 studies. It finds that more recent studies provide stronger evidence of a negative effect of military expenditure on economic growth.

Military expenditure and economic growth, 1960–2014

Abstract: This article compares results of our 2015 study of the effect of military expenditure on economic growth, 1988–2010, with results using an additional 28 years of data provided in the newly revised and extended SIPRI dataset, 1960–2014. When the additional data points are added, we find no substantive differences and confirm the statistically significant negative effect of military expenditure on growth reported in our prior research. Using the same estimation process, there is no evidence of a structural break in the time series. Considering nonlinearity and heterogeneity, the estimates using the new data for ninety-seven countries are remarkably consistent with the earlier results and, overall, are very similar in sign and statistical significance, and many of the coefficients are larger (more adverse) than before. The new data provide valuable extra information and support for the original findings.

Conflict Spillovers and Growth in Africa

Abstract: A number of studies have attempted to evaluate the costs of conflict, but few have evaluated the impact of conflict on country growth. An even more limited number of studies have attempted to evaluate the spillover effects of conflict, with those that have finding clear negative effects on primary neighbors and then positive secondary neighbor effects. There are, however, a number of issues with these studies and this paper updates and develops their analysis using a dynamic panel approach. It confirms the negative sign and magnitude of the previous findings for the host country and primary neighbors, but finds no evidence of any positive or negative effects of conflict on secondary neighbors.

Military Expenditure, Economic Growth and Heterogeneity

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of military expenditure on economic growth on a large balanced panel, using an exogenous growth model and dynamic panel data methods for 106 countries over the period 1988-2010. A major focus of the paper is to consider the possibility group heterogeneity and non-linearity. Having estimated the model for all of the countries in the panel and finding that military burden has a negative effect on growth in the short and long run, the panel is broken down into various groupings based upon a range of potentially relevant factors and the robustness of the results is evaluated. The factors considered are different levels of income, conflict experience, natural resources abundance, openness and aid. The estimates for the different groups are remarkably consistent with those for the whole panel, providing strong support for the argument that military spending has adverse effects on growth. There are, however, some intriguing results that suggest that for certain types of countries military spending has no significant effect on growth.

Military Expenditure, Economic Growth and Heterogeneity

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of military expenditure on economic growth on a large balanced panel, using an exogenous growth model and dynamic panel data methods for 106 countries over the period 1988–2010 A major focus of the paper is to consider the possibility group heterogeneity and non-linearity Having estimated the model for all of the countries in the panel and finding that military burden has a negative effect on growth in the short and long run, the panel is broken down into various groupings based upon a range of potentially relevant factors, and the robustness of the results is evaluated The factors considered are different levels of income, conflict experience, natural resources abundance, openness and aid The estimates for the different groups are remarkably consistent with those for the whole panel, providing strong support for the argument that military spending has adverse effects on growth There are, however, some intriguing results that suggest that for certain types of countries

Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict

Abstract: A rapidly growing body of research examines whether human conflict can be affected by climatic changes. Drawing from archeology, criminology, economics, geography, history, political science, and psychology, we assemble and analyze the 60 most rigorous quantitative studies and document, for the first time, a remarkable convergence of results. We find strong causal evidence linking climatic events to human conflict across a range of spatial and temporal scales and across all major regions of the world. The magnitude of climate's influence is substantial: for each 1 standard deviation (1σ) change in climate toward warmer temperatures or more extreme rainfall, median estimates indicate that the frequency of interpersonal violence rises 4% and the frequency of intergroup conflict rises 14%. Because locations throughout the inhabited world are expected to warm 2-4σ by 2050, amplified rates of human conflict could represent a large and critical impact of anthropogenic climate change.

Does Military Spending Matter for Long-run Growth?

Abstract: The effects of military spending has on the economy continues to be a subject of considerable debate, with a lack of consensus in the literature. This paper takes advantage of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute extended data-set to contribute to the debate using empirical methods made available, or more applicable, by the extra observations. It constructs a large panel of countries for the period 1970–2014 to explore the long-run equilibrium relationship between military spending and economic growth, applies the more flexible pooled mean group estimator, and compares the results with the more restrictive dynamic fixed effect method used in earlier influential studies. It also compares results from different time and country samples. Across the specifications it finds a significant and persistent negative effect of military burden on economic growth that is robust across different country groups, with the largest impact being for OECD countries.

Analyzing the linkage between military spending, economic growth, and ecological footprint in Pakistan: evidence from cointegration and bootstrap causality.

Abstract: The ecological consequences of military spending is a hugely neglected area, and a veil of mystery surrounds this topic. The environmental threats posed by militaries remain insufficiently investigated in the name of national security. Prompted by the internal and external conflicts and prolonged military dictatorships, the Pakistani military assumes a role that goes beyond that of a traditional army. The current study addresses this significant gap in the literature by investigating the impacts of military spending on economic growth and the ecological footprint in Pakistan from 1971 to 2016 using the combined cointegration test and the bootstrap causality test. The findings of the study unveil a positive impact of military spending on the ecological footprint, while a negative impact on economic growth. The outcomes of the bootstrap causality test of Hacker and Hatemi-J (2012) highlight that economic growth Granger causes military spending, while causality runs from military spending to the ecological footprint. Energy consumption contributes to the ecological footprint and economic growth, whereas education expenditures do not influence economic growth and the environment in the long run. Further, the findings suggest a U-shaped link between GDP and footprint in Pakistan. The authorities should focus on resolving external and internal conflicts, on a priority basis, and reduce military spending to improve economic growth and the environment.