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Natalie E. Dean

Bio: Natalie E. Dean is an academic researcher from University of Florida. The author has contributed to research in topics: Vaccination & Medicine. The author has an hindex of 25, co-authored 64 publications receiving 4054 citations. Previous affiliations of Natalie E. Dean include University of Florida College of Public Health and Health Professions & Emerging Pathogens Institute.

Papers published on a yearly basis

Papers
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The results of this interim analysis indicate that rVSV-ZEBOV might be highly efficacious and safe in preventing Ebola virus disease, and is most likely effective at the population level when delivered during an Ebola virus Disease outbreak via a ring vaccination strategy.

704 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: An agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission shows that testing, contact tracing and household quarantine could keep new COVID-19 waves under control while allowing the reopening of the economy with minimal social-distancing interventions.
Abstract: While severe social-distancing measures have proven effective in slowing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, second-wave scenarios are likely to emerge as restrictions are lifted. Here we integrate anonymized, geolocalized mobility data with census and demographic data to build a detailed agent-based model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in the Boston metropolitan area. We find that a period of strict social distancing followed by a robust level of testing, contact-tracing and household quarantine could keep the disease within the capacity of the healthcare system while enabling the reopening of economic activities. Our results show that a response system based on enhanced testing and contact tracing can have a major role in relaxing social-distancing interventions in the absence of herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2.

625 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
01 Dec 2020
TL;DR: The findings suggest that households are and will continue to be important venues for transmission, even in areas where community transmission is reduced.
Abstract: Importance Crowded indoor environments, such as households, are high-risk settings for the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Objectives To examine evidence for household transmission of SARS-CoV-2, disaggregated by several covariates, and to compare it with other coronaviruses. Data Source PubMed, searched through October 19, 2020. Search terms includedSARS-CoV-2orCOVID-19withsecondary attack rate,household,close contacts,contact transmission,contact attack rate, orfamily transmission. Study Selection All articles with original data for estimating household secondary attack rate were included. Case reports focusing on individual households and studies of close contacts that did not report secondary attack rates for household members were excluded. Data Extraction and Synthesis Meta-analyses were done using a restricted maximum-likelihood estimator model to yield a point estimate and 95% CI for secondary attack rate for each subgroup analyzed, with a random effect for each study. To make comparisons across exposure types, study was treated as a random effect, and exposure type was a fixed moderator. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) reporting guideline was followed. Main Outcomes and Measures Secondary attack rate for SARS-CoV-2, disaggregated by covariates (ie, household or family contact, index case symptom status, adult or child contacts, contact sex, relationship to index case, adult or child index cases, index case sex, number of contacts in household) and for other coronaviruses. Results A total of 54 relevant studies with 77 758 participants reporting household secondary transmission were identified. Estimated household secondary attack rate was 16.6% (95% CI, 14.0%-19.3%), higher than secondary attack rates for SARS-CoV (7.5%; 95% CI, 4.8%-10.7%) and MERS-CoV (4.7%; 95% CI, 0.9%-10.7%). Household secondary attack rates were increased from symptomatic index cases (18.0%; 95% CI, 14.2%-22.1%) than from asymptomatic index cases (0.7%; 95% CI, 0%-4.9%), to adult contacts (28.3%; 95% CI, 20.2%-37.1%) than to child contacts (16.8%; 95% CI, 12.3%-21.7%), to spouses (37.8%; 95% CI, 25.8%-50.5%) than to other family contacts (17.8%; 95% CI, 11.7%-24.8%), and in households with 1 contact (41.5%; 95% CI, 31.7%-51.7%) than in households with 3 or more contacts (22.8%; 95% CI, 13.6%-33.5%). Conclusions and Relevance The findings of this study suggest that given that individuals with suspected or confirmed infections are being referred to isolate at home, households will continue to be a significant venue for transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

512 citations

Posted ContentDOI
11 Feb 2020-medRxiv
TL;DR: This preprint is withdrawn for the time being because the total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in mainland China has reached 18 times of the number in the manuscript.
Abstract: Our manuscript was based on surveillance cases of COVID-19 identified before January 26, 2020. As of February 20, 2020, the total number of confirmed cases in mainland China has reached 18 times of the number in our manuscript. While the methods and the main conclusions in our original analyses remain solid, we decided to withdraw this preprint for the time being, and will replace it with a more up-to-date version shortly. Should you have any comments or suggestions, please feel free to contact the corresponding author.

417 citations


Cited by
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Investigation of NLR and lymphocyte subsets is helpful in the early screening of critical illness, diagnosis and treatment of COVID-19 and shows the novel coronavirus might mainly act on lymphocytes, especially T lymphocytes.
Abstract: BACKGROUND: In December 2019, coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in Wuhan and rapidly spread throughout China. METHODS: Demographic and clinical data of all confirmed cases with COVID-19 on admission at Tongji Hospital from 10 January to 12 February 2020 were collected and analyzed. The data on laboratory examinations, including peripheral lymphocyte subsets, were analyzed and compared between patients with severe and nonsevere infection. RESULTS: Of the 452 patients with COVID-19 recruited, 286 were diagnosed as having severe infection. The median age was 58 years and 235 were male. The most common symptoms were fever, shortness of breath, expectoration, fatigue, dry cough, and myalgia. Severe cases tend to have lower lymphocyte counts, higher leukocyte counts and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), as well as lower percentages of monocytes, eosinophils, and basophils. Most severe cases demonstrated elevated levels of infection-related biomarkers and inflammatory cytokines. The number of T cells significantly decreased, and were more impaired in severe cases. Both helper T (Th) cells and suppressor T cells in patients with COVID-19 were below normal levels, with lower levels of Th cells in the severe group. The percentage of naive Th cells increased and memory Th cells decreased in severe cases. Patients with COVID-19 also have lower levels of regulatory T cells, which are more obviously decreased in severe cases. CONCLUSIONS: The novel coronavirus might mainly act on lymphocytes, especially T lymphocytes. Surveillance of NLR and lymphocyte subsets is helpful in the early screening of critical illness, diagnosis, and treatment of COVID-19.

3,532 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: These early estimates give an indication of the fatality ratio across the spectrum of COVID-19 disease and show a strong age gradient in risk of death.
Abstract: Background In the face of rapidly changing data, a range of case fatality ratio estimates for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been produced that differ substantially in magnitude. We aimed to provide robust estimates, accounting for censoring and ascertainment biases. Methods We collected individual-case data for patients who died from COVID-19 in Hubei, mainland China (reported by national and provincial health commissions to Feb 8, 2020), and for cases outside of mainland China (from government or ministry of health websites and media reports for 37 countries, as well as Hong Kong and Macau, until Feb 25, 2020). These individual-case data were used to estimate the time between onset of symptoms and outcome (death or discharge from hospital). We next obtained age-stratified estimates of the case fatality ratio by relating the aggregate distribution of cases to the observed cumulative deaths in China, assuming a constant attack rate by age and adjusting for demography and age-based and location-based under-ascertainment. We also estimated the case fatality ratio from individual line-list data on 1334 cases identified outside of mainland China. Using data on the prevalence of PCR-confirmed cases in international residents repatriated from China, we obtained age-stratified estimates of the infection fatality ratio. Furthermore, data on age-stratified severity in a subset of 3665 cases from China were used to estimate the proportion of infected individuals who are likely to require hospitalisation. Findings Using data on 24 deaths that occurred in mainland China and 165 recoveries outside of China, we estimated the mean duration from onset of symptoms to death to be 17·8 days (95% credible interval [CrI] 16·9-19·2) and to hospital discharge to be 24·7 days (22·9-28·1). In all laboratory confirmed and clinically diagnosed cases from mainland China (n=70 117), we estimated a crude case fatality ratio (adjusted for censoring) of 3·67% (95% CrI 3·56-3·80). However, after further adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment, we obtained a best estimate of the case fatality ratio in China of 1·38% (1·23-1·53), with substantially higher ratios in older age groups (0·32% [0·27-0·38] in those aged Interpretation These early estimates give an indication of the fatality ratio across the spectrum of COVID-19 disease and show a strong age gradient in risk of death. Funding UK Medical Research Council.

3,271 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
06 Mar 2020-Science
TL;DR: The results suggest that early detection, hand washing, self-isolation, and household quarantine will likely be more effective than travel restrictions at mitigating this pandemic, and sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.
Abstract: Motivated by the rapid spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in mainland China, we use a global metapopulation disease transmission model to project the impact of travel limitations on the national and international spread of the epidemic. The model is calibrated on the basis of internationally reported cases and shows that, at the start of the travel ban from Wuhan on 23 January 2020, most Chinese cities had already received many infected travelers. The travel quarantine of Wuhan delayed the overall epidemic progression by only 3 to 5 days in mainland China but had a more marked effect on the international scale, where case importations were reduced by nearly 80% until mid-February. Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.

2,949 citations

Journal Article
TL;DR: High-dose of intravenous immunoglobulin (0.4 g/kg daily for 5 days) and PE are equally effective in intermediate and severe forms and the choice between the two treatments depends on their respective contra-indications and local availability.
Abstract: L'incidence annuelle du syndrome de Guillain-Barre est de 1,5/100000 habitants La mortalite actuelle est estimee a environ 5 % d'apres des essais therapeutiques recents, bien conduits Dix pour cent des malades gardent des sequelles motrices tres invalidantes un an apres le debut des premiers signes neurologiques La prise en charge de ces malades necessite des equipes entrainees, multidisciplinaires, pouvant pratiquer l'ensemble des therapeutiques specifiques La corticotherapie per os'ou par voie intraveineuse est inefficace Les echanges plasmatiques sont le premier traitement dont l'efficacite a ete demontree par rapport a un groupe controle Les indications sont maintenant mieux connues Les formes benignes (marche possible) beneficient de 2 echanges plasmatiques; 2 echanges supplementaires sont realises en cas d'aggravation Dans les formes intermediaires (marche impossible) et les formes severes (recours a la ventilation mecanique), 4 echanges plasmatiques sont conseilles Il n'est pas utile d'augmenter leur nombre dans les formes severes ou en cas d'absence d'amelioration De fortes doses d'immunoglobulines donnees par voie intraveineuse (lq IV) [0,4 g/kg/j pendant 5 jours] sont aussi efficaces que les echanges plasmatiques dans les formes intermediaires et severes Dans ces formes, le choix entre Ig IV et echanges plasmatiques depend des contre-indications respectives de ces traitements et de leur faisabilite Les travaux en cours ont comme objectif de mieux preciser les indications respectives des echanges plasmatiques et des lq IV dans des formes de gravite differente, leur morbidite comparee, la dose optimale des lq IV

1,842 citations