Nelia W. Dunbar

Bio: Nelia W. Dunbar is an academic researcher from New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology. The author has contributed to research in topics: Volcano & Ice core. The author has an hindex of 37, co-authored 113 publications receiving 4183 citations. Previous affiliations of Nelia W. Dunbar include Oak Ridge National Laboratory & United States Bureau of Mines.

Obliquity-paced Pliocene West Antarctic ice sheet oscillations

Abstract: Thirty years after oxygen isotope records from microfossils deposited in ocean sediments confirmed the hypothesis that variations in the Earth's orbital geometry control the ice ages, fundamental questions remain over the response of the Antarctic ice sheets to orbital cycles. Furthermore, an understanding of the behaviour of the marine-based West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) during the 'warmer-than-present' early-Pliocene epoch ( approximately 5-3 Myr ago) is needed to better constrain the possible range of ice-sheet behaviour in the context of future global warming. Here we present a marine glacial record from the upper 600 m of the AND-1B sediment core recovered from beneath the northwest part of the Ross ice shelf by the ANDRILL programme and demonstrate well-dated, approximately 40-kyr cyclic variations in ice-sheet extent linked to cycles in insolation influenced by changes in the Earth's axial tilt (obliquity) during the Pliocene. Our data provide direct evidence for orbitally induced oscillations in the WAIS, which periodically collapsed, resulting in a switch from grounded ice, or ice shelves, to open waters in the Ross embayment when planetary temperatures were up to approximately 3 degrees C warmer than today and atmospheric CO(2) concentration was as high as approximately 400 p.p.m.v. (refs 5, 6). The evidence is consistent with a new ice-sheet/ice-shelf model that simulates fluctuations in Antarctic ice volume of up to +7 m in equivalent sea level associated with the loss of the WAIS and up to +3 m in equivalent sea level from the East Antarctic ice sheet, in response to ocean-induced melting paced by obliquity. During interglacial times, diatomaceous sediments indicate high surface-water productivity, minimal summer sea ice and air temperatures above freezing, suggesting an additional influence of surface melt under conditions of elevated CO(2).

Precise interpolar phasing of abrupt climate change during the last ice age

Abstract: A new ice core from West Antarctica shows that, during the last ice age, abrupt Northern Hemisphere climate variations were followed two centuries later by a response in Antarctica, suggesting an oceanic propagation of the climate signal to the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes.

The WAIS Divide deep ice core WD2014 chronology - Part 2: Annual-layer counting (0-31 ka BP)

Abstract: . We present the WD2014 chronology for the upper part (0–2850 m; 31.2 ka BP) of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide (WD) ice core. The chronology is based on counting of annual layers observed in the chemical, dust and electrical conductivity records. These layers are caused by seasonal changes in the source, transport, and deposition of aerosols. The measurements were interpreted manually and with the aid of two automated methods. We validated the chronology by comparing to two high-accuracy, absolutely dated chronologies. For the Holocene, the cosmogenic isotope records of 10Be from WAIS Divide and 14C for IntCal13 demonstrated that WD2014 was consistently accurate to better than 0.5 % of the age. For the glacial period, comparisons to the Hulu Cave chronology demonstrated that WD2014 had an accuracy of better than 1 % of the age at three abrupt climate change events between 27 and 31 ka. WD2014 has consistently younger ages than Greenland ice core chronologies during most of the Holocene. For the Younger Dryas–Preboreal transition (11.595 ka; 24 years younger) and the Bolling–Allerod Warming (14.621 ka; 7 years younger), WD2014 ages are within the combined uncertainties of the timescales. Given its high accuracy, WD2014 can become a reference chronology for the Southern Hemisphere, with synchronization to other chronologies feasible using high-quality proxies of volcanism, solar activity, atmospheric mineral dust, and atmospheric methane concentrations.

Distinguishing subglacial till and glacial marine diamictons in the western Ross Sea, Antarctica: Implications for a last glacial maximum grounding line

Abstract: Analyses of lithology, stratigraphy, and tephra from marine sediment cores collected from the western Ross Sea during cruises Eltanin 32 and 52 and Deep Freeze 80 and 87 indicate that subglacial till does not extend to the continental shelf edge. Subglacial till occurs as the lowest unit in most cores landward (south) of approximately 74°S, while seaward of approximately 74°S, the lowest diamicton units are glacial marine diamictons. Glacial marine diamictons are distinguished from subglacial tills by the presence of higher and more variable total organic carbon content downcore, distinct tephra layers, stratification, higher diatom and foraminifera abundances, higher sand content, and radiocarbon dates in chronological order downcore. Sand-sized tephra layers from two cores on the outer continental shelf are interpreted as single eruptive events, one likely to have been derived from the Mount Melbourne volcano and the other from the Pleiades volcano. Radiocarbon dates from sediment above and below the tephra layer in one of these cores (Df87-32) show that deposition indicative of open-water conditions occurred between 22 and 26 ka in the western Ross Sea.

The IntCal20 Northern Hemisphere Radiocarbon Age Calibration Curve (0-55 cal kBP)

Abstract: Radiocarbon (14C) ages cannot provide absolutely dated chronologies for archaeological or paleoenvironmental studies directly but must be converted to calendar age equivalents using a calibration curve compensating for fluctuations in atmospheric 14C concentration. Although calibration curves are constructed from independently dated archives, they invariably require revision as new data become available and our understanding of the Earth system improves. In this volume the international 14C calibration curves for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as for the ocean surface layer, have been updated to include a wealth of new data and extended to 55,000 cal BP. Based on tree rings, IntCal20 now extends as a fully atmospheric record to ca. 13,900 cal BP. For the older part of the timescale, IntCal20 comprises statistically integrated evidence from floating tree-ring chronologies, lacustrine and marine sediments, speleothems, and corals. We utilized improved evaluation of the timescales and location variable 14C offsets from the atmosphere (reservoir age, dead carbon fraction) for each dataset. New statistical methods have refined the structure of the calibration curves while maintaining a robust treatment of uncertainties in the 14C ages, the calendar ages and other corrections. The inclusion of modeled marine reservoir ages derived from a three-dimensional ocean circulation model has allowed us to apply more appropriate reservoir corrections to the marine 14C data rather than the previous use of constant regional offsets from the atmosphere. Here we provide an overview of the new and revised datasets and the associated methods used for the construction of the IntCal20 curve and explore potential regional offsets for tree-ring data. We discuss the main differences with respect to the previous calibration curve, IntCal13, and some of the implications for archaeology and geosciences ranging from the recent past to the time of the extinction of the Neanderthals.

The impact of climate change on the world's marine ecosystems.

Abstract: Marine ecosystems are centrally important to the biology of the planet, yet a comprehensive understanding of how anthropogenic climate change is affecting them has been poorly developed. Recent studies indicate that rapidly rising greenhouse gas concentrations are driving ocean systems toward conditions not seen for millions of years, with an associated risk of fundamental and irreversible ecological transformation. The impacts of anthropogenic climate change so far include decreased ocean productivity, altered food web dynamics, reduced abundance of habitat-forming species, shifting species distributions, and a greater incidence of disease. Although there is considerable uncertainty about the spatial and temporal details, climate change is clearly and fundamentally altering ocean ecosystems. Further change will continue to create enormous challenges and costs for societies worldwide, particularly those in developing countries.

Crystallization thermometers for zircon and rutile

Abstract: Zircon and rutile are common accessory minerals whose essential structural constituents, Zr, Ti, and Si can replace one another to a limited extent. Here we present the combined results of high pressure–temperature experiments and analyses of natural zircons and rutile crystals that reveal systematic changes with temperature in the uptake of Ti in zircon and Zr in rutile. Detailed calibrations of the temperature dependencies are presented as two geothermometers—Ti content of zircon and Zr content of rutile—that may find wide application in crustal petrology. Synthetic zircons were crystallized in the presence of rutile at 1–2 GPa and 1,025–1,450°C from both silicate melts and hydrothermal solutions, and the resulting crystals were analyzed for Ti by electron microprobe (EMP). To augment and extend the experimental results, zircons hosted by five natural rocks of well-constrained but diverse origin (0.7–3 GPa; 580–1,070°C) were analyzed for Ti, in most cases by ion microprobe (IMP). The combined experimental and natural results define a log-linear dependence of equilibrium Ti content (expressed in ppm by weight) upon reciprocal temperature: $$\log ({\text{Ti}}_{{{\text{zircon}}}}) = (6.01 \pm 0.03) - \frac{{5080 \pm 30}}{{T\;(\hbox{K})}}.$$ In a strategy similar to that used for zircon, rutile crystals were grown in the presence of zircon and quartz (or hydrous silicic melt) at 1–1.4 GPa and 675–1,450°C and analyzed for Zr by EMP. The experimental results were complemented by EMP analyses of rutile grains from six natural rocks of diverse origin spanning 0.35–3 GPa and 470–1,070°C. The concentration of Zr (ppm by weight) in the synthetic and natural rutiles also varies in log-linear fashion with T −1: $$\log ({\text{Zr}}_{{{\text{rutile}}}}) = (7.36 \pm 0.10) - \frac{{4470 \pm 120}}{{T\;(\hbox{K})}}.$$ The zircon and rutile calibrations are consistent with one another across both the synthetic and natural samples, and are relatively insensitive to changes in pressure, particularly in the case of Ti in zircon. Applied to natural zircons and rutiles of unknown provenance and/or growth conditions, the thermometers have the potential to return temperatures with an estimated uncertainty of ±10 ° or better in the case of zircon and ±20° or better in the case of rutile over most of the temperature range of interest (∼400–1,000°C). Estimates of relative temperature or changes in temperature (e.g., from zoning profiles in a single mineral grain) made with these thermometers are subject to analytical uncertainty only, which can be better than ±5° depending on Ti or Zr concentration (i.e., temperature), and also upon the analytical instrument (e.g., IMP or EMP) and operating conditions.

Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise

Abstract: Polar temperatures over the last several million years have, at times, been slightly warmer than today, yet global mean sea level has been 6-9 metres higher as recently as the Last Interglacial (130,000 to 115,000 years ago) and possibly higher during the Pliocene epoch (about three million years ago). In both cases the Antarctic ice sheet has been implicated as the primary contributor, hinting at its future vulnerability. Here we use a model coupling ice sheet and climate dynamics-including previously underappreciated processes linking atmospheric warming with hydrofracturing of buttressing ice shelves and structural collapse of marine-terminating ice cliffs-that is calibrated against Pliocene and Last Interglacial sea-level estimates and applied to future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Antarctica has the potential to contribute more than a metre of sea-level rise by 2100 and more than 15 metres by 2500, if emissions continue unabated. In this case atmospheric warming will soon become the dominant driver of ice loss, but prolonged ocean warming will delay its recovery for thousands of years.