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Author

Nicholas P. McKay

Other affiliations: University of Arizona
Bio: Nicholas P. McKay is an academic researcher from Northern Arizona University. The author has contributed to research in topics: Holocene & Climate change. The author has an hindex of 30, co-authored 76 publications receiving 4215 citations. Previous affiliations of Nicholas P. McKay include University of Arizona.


Papers
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Journal ArticleDOI
Moinuddin Ahmed1, Kevin J. Anchukaitis2, Kevin J. Anchukaitis3, Asfawossen Asrat4, H. P. Borgaonkar5, Martina Braida6, Brendan M. Buckley3, Ulf Büntgen7, Brian M. Chase8, Brian M. Chase9, Duncan A. Christie10, Duncan A. Christie11, Edward R. Cook3, Mark A. J. Curran12, Mark A. J. Curran13, Henry F. Diaz14, Jan Esper15, Ze-Xin Fan16, Narayan Prasad Gaire17, Quansheng Ge18, Joelle Gergis19, J. Fidel González-Rouco20, Hugues Goosse21, Stefan W. Grab22, Nicholas E. Graham23, Rochelle Graham23, Martin Grosjean24, Sami Hanhijärvi25, Darrell S. Kaufman26, Thorsten Kiefer, Katsuhiko Kimura27, Atte Korhola25, Paul J. Krusic28, Antonio Lara11, Antonio Lara10, Anne-Marie Lézine29, Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist28, Andrew Lorrey30, Jürg Luterbacher31, Valérie Masson-Delmotte29, Danny McCarroll32, Joseph R. McConnell33, Nicholas P. McKay26, Mariano S. Morales34, Andrew D. Moy13, Andrew D. Moy12, Robert Mulvaney35, Ignacio A. Mundo34, Takeshi Nakatsuka36, David J. Nash37, David J. Nash22, Raphael Neukom7, Sharon E. Nicholson38, Hans Oerter39, Jonathan G. Palmer40, Jonathan G. Palmer41, Steven J. Phipps41, María Prieto32, Andrés Rivera42, Masaki Sano36, Mirko Severi43, Timothy M. Shanahan44, Xuemei Shao18, Feng Shi, Michael Sigl33, Jason E. Smerdon3, Olga Solomina45, Eric J. Steig46, Barbara Stenni6, Meloth Thamban47, Valerie Trouet48, Chris S. M. Turney41, Mohammed Umer4, Tas van Ommen13, Tas van Ommen12, Dirk Verschuren49, A. E. Viau50, Ricardo Villalba34, Bo Møllesøe Vinther51, Lucien von Gunten, Sebastian Wagner, Eugene R. Wahl14, Heinz Wanner24, Johannes P. Werner31, James W. C. White52, Koh Yasue53, Eduardo Zorita 
Federal Urdu University1, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution2, Columbia University3, Addis Ababa University4, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology5, University of Trieste6, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research7, University of Montpellier8, University of Bergen9, University of Chile10, Austral University of Chile11, Australian Antarctic Division12, University of Tasmania13, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration14, University of Mainz15, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden16, Nepal Academy of Science and Technology17, Chinese Academy of Sciences18, University of Melbourne19, Complutense University of Madrid20, Université catholique de Louvain21, University of the Witwatersrand22, Hydrologic Research Center23, University of Bern24, University of Helsinki25, Northern Arizona University26, Fukushima University27, Stockholm University28, Université Paris-Saclay29, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research30, University of Giessen31, Swansea University32, Desert Research Institute33, National Scientific and Technical Research Council34, British Antarctic Survey35, Nagoya University36, University of Brighton37, Florida State University38, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research39, University of Exeter40, University of New South Wales41, Centro de Estudios Científicos42, University of Florence43, University of Texas at Austin44, Russian Academy of Sciences45, University of Washington46, National Centre for Antarctic and Ocean Research47, University of Arizona48, Ghent University49, University of Ottawa50, University of Copenhagen51, University of Colorado Boulder52, Shinshu University53
TL;DR: The authors reconstructed past temperatures for seven continental-scale regions during the past one to two millennia and found that the most coherent feature in nearly all of the regional temperature reconstructions is a long-term cooling trend, which ended late in the nineteenth century.
Abstract: Past global climate changes had strong regional expression To elucidate their spatio-temporal pattern, we reconstructed past temperatures for seven continental-scale regions during the past one to two millennia The most coherent feature in nearly all of the regional temperature reconstructions is a long-term cooling trend, which ended late in the nineteenth century At multi-decadal to centennial scales, temperature variability shows distinctly different regional patterns, with more similarity within each hemisphere than between them There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little Ice Age, but all reconstructions show generally cold conditions between ad 1580 and 1880, punctuated in some regions by warm decades during the eighteenth century The transition to these colder conditions occurred earlier in the Arctic, Europe and Asia than in North America or the Southern Hemisphere regions Recent warming reversed the long-term cooling; during the period ad 1971–2000, the area-weighted average reconstructed temperature was higher than any other time in nearly 1,400 years

885 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
04 Sep 2009-Science
TL;DR: A synthesis of decadally resolved proxy temperature records from poleward of 60°N covering the past 2000 years indicates that a pervasive cooling in progress 2000 years ago continued through the Middle Ages and into the Little Ice Age.
Abstract: The temperature history of the first millennium C.E. is sparsely documented, especially in the Arctic. We present a synthesis of decadally resolved proxy temperature records from poleward of 60°N covering the past 2000 years, which indicates that a pervasive cooling in progress 2000 years ago continued through the Middle Ages and into the Little Ice Age. A 2000-year transient climate simulation with the Community Climate System Model shows the same temperature sensitivity to changes in insolation as does our proxy reconstruction, supporting the inference that this long-term trend was caused by the steady orbitally driven reduction in summer insolation. The cooling trend was reversed during the 20th century, with four of the five warmest decades of our 2000-year-long reconstruction occurring between 1950 and 2000.

663 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the termination of humidity was spatially variable, moving towards progressively lower latitudes in Africa during the early to mid-Holocene, during which Africa was more humid than today.
Abstract: During the early to mid-Holocene, Africa was more humid than today. Precipitation reconstructions from across Africa suggest that the termination of humidity was spatially variable, moving towards progressively lower latitudes.

326 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
Julien Emile-Geay1, Nicholas P. McKay2, Darrell S. Kaufman2, Lucien von Gunten, Jianghao Wang3, Kevin J. Anchukaitis4, Nerilie J. Abram5, Jason A. Addison6, Mark A. J. Curran7, Mark A. J. Curran8, Michael N. Evans9, Benjamin J. Henley10, Zhixin Hao, Belen Martrat11, Belen Martrat12, Helen McGregor13, Raphael Neukom14, Gregory T. Pederson6, Barbara Stenni15, Kaustubh Thirumalai16, Johannes P. Werner17, Chenxi Xu18, Dmitry Divine19, Bronwyn C. Dixon10, Joelle Gergis10, Ignacio A. Mundo20, Takeshi Nakatsuka, Steven J. Phipps8, Cody C. Routson2, Eric J. Steig21, Jessica E. Tierney4, Jonathan J. Tyler22, Kathryn Allen10, Nancy A. N. Bertler23, Jesper Björklund24, Brian M. Chase25, Min Te Chen26, Edward R. Cook27, Rixt de Jong14, Kristine L. DeLong28, Daniel A. Dixon29, Alexey A. Ekaykin30, Alexey A. Ekaykin31, Vasile Ersek32, Helena L. Filipsson33, Pierre Francus34, Mandy Freund10, Massimo Frezzotti, Narayan Prasad Gaire35, Narayan Prasad Gaire36, Konrad Gajewski37, Quansheng Ge, Hugues Goosse38, Anastasia Gornostaeva, Martin Grosjean14, Kazuho Horiuchi39, Anne Hormes40, Katrine Husum19, Elisabeth Isaksson19, Selvaraj Kandasamy41, Kenji Kawamura42, Kenji Kawamura43, K. Halimeda Kilbourne9, Nalan Koc19, Guillaume Leduc44, Hans W. Linderholm40, Andrew Lorrey45, Vladimir Mikhalenko46, P. Graham Mortyn47, Hideaki Motoyama42, Andrew D. Moy7, Andrew D. Moy8, Robert Mulvaney48, Philipp Munz49, David J. Nash50, David J. Nash51, Hans Oerter52, Thomas Opel52, Anais Orsi53, Dmitriy V. Ovchinnikov54, Trevor J. Porter55, Heidi A. Roop56, Casey Saenger21, Masaki Sano, David J. Sauchyn38, Krystyna M. Saunders57, Krystyna M. Saunders14, Marit-Solveig Seidenkrantz58, Mirko Severi59, Xuemei Shao, Marie-Alexandrine Sicre60, Michael Sigl61, Kate E. Sinclair, Scott St. George62, Jeannine-Marie St. Jacques63, Jeannine-Marie St. Jacques64, Meloth Thamban65, Udya Kuwar Thapa62, Elizabeth R. Thomas48, Chris S. M. Turney66, Ryu Uemura67, A. E. Viau37, Diana Vladimirova31, Diana Vladimirova30, Eugene R. Wahl68, James W. C. White69, Zicheng Yu70, Jens Zinke71, Jens Zinke72 
University of Southern California1, Northern Arizona University2, MathWorks3, University of Arizona4, Australian National University5, United States Geological Survey6, Australian Antarctic Division7, University of Tasmania8, University of Maryland, College Park9, University of Melbourne10, University of Cambridge11, Spanish National Research Council12, University of Wollongong13, University of Bern14, Ca' Foscari University of Venice15, University of Texas at Austin16, University of Bergen17, Chinese Academy of Sciences18, Norwegian Polar Institute19, National University of Cuyo20, University of Washington21, University of Adelaide22, Victoria University of Wellington23, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research24, University of Montpellier25, National Taiwan Ocean University26, Columbia University27, Louisiana State University28, University of Maine29, Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute30, Saint Petersburg State University31, Northumbria University32, Lund University33, Institut national de la recherche scientifique34, Nepal Academy of Science and Technology35, Tribhuvan University36, University of Ottawa37, Université catholique de Louvain38, Hirosaki University39, University of Gothenburg40, Xiamen University41, National Institute of Polar Research42, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology43, Aix-Marseille University44, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research45, Russian Academy of Sciences46, Autonomous University of Barcelona47, British Antarctic Survey48, University of Tübingen49, University of Brighton50, University of the Witwatersrand51, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research52, Université Paris-Saclay53, Sukachev Institute of Forest54, University of Toronto55, University at Buffalo56, Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation57, Aarhus University58, University of Florence59, Pierre-and-Marie-Curie University60, Paul Scherrer Institute61, University of Minnesota62, University of Regina63, Concordia University64, National Centre for Antarctic and Ocean Research65, University of New South Wales66, University of the Ryukyus67, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration68, University of Colorado Boulder69, Lehigh University70, Australian Institute of Marine Science71, Free University of Berlin72
TL;DR: A community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative, suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python.
Abstract: Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850–2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python.

260 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Reconstructions and simulations qualitatively agree on the amplitude of the unforced global mean multidecadal temperature variability, thereby increasing confidence in future projections of climate change on these timescales.
Abstract: Multi-decadal surface temperature changes may be forced by natural as well as anthropogenic factors, or arise unforced from the climate system. Distinguishing these factors is essential for estimating sensitivity to multiple climatic forcings and the amplitude of the unforced variability. Here we present 2,000-year-long global mean temperature reconstructions using seven different statistical methods that draw from a global collection of temperature-sensitive paleoclimate records. Our reconstructions display synchronous multi-decadal temperature fluctuations, which are coherent with one another and with fully forced CMIP5 millennial model simulations across the Common Era. The most significant attribution of pre-industrial (1300-1800 CE) variability at multi-decadal timescales is to volcanic aerosol forcing. Reconstructions and simulations qualitatively agree on the amplitude of the unforced global mean multi-decadal temperature variability, thereby increasing confidence in future projections of climate change on these timescales. The largest warming trends at timescales of 20 years and longer occur during the second half of the 20th century, highlighting the unusual character of the warming in recent decades.

221 citations


Cited by
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28 Jul 2005
TL;DR: PfPMP1)与感染红细胞、树突状组胞以及胎盘的单个或多个受体作用,在黏附及免疫逃避中起关键的作�ly.
Abstract: 抗原变异可使得多种致病微生物易于逃避宿主免疫应答。表达在感染红细胞表面的恶性疟原虫红细胞表面蛋白1(PfPMP1)与感染红细胞、内皮细胞、树突状细胞以及胎盘的单个或多个受体作用,在黏附及免疫逃避中起关键的作用。每个单倍体基因组var基因家族编码约60种成员,通过启动转录不同的var基因变异体为抗原变异提供了分子基础。

18,940 citations

Journal Article
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a document, redatto, voted and pubblicato by the Ipcc -Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.
Abstract: Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.

4,187 citations

Journal Article
TL;DR: In this paper, a documento: "Cambiamenti climatici 2007: impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita" voteato ad aprile 2007 dal secondo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato Intergovernativo sui Cambiamentsi Climatici (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).
Abstract: Impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita Le cause e le responsabilita dei cambiamenti climatici sono state trattate sul numero di ottobre della rivista Cda. Approfondiamo l’argomento presentando il documento: “Cambiamenti climatici 2007: impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita” votato ad aprile 2007 dal secondo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato Intergovernativo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Si tratta del secondo di tre documenti che compongono il quarto rapporto sui cambiamenti climatici.

3,979 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: From ∼1,000 observations of sea level, allowing for isostatic and tectonic contributions, this work quantified the rise and fall in global ocean and ice volumes for the past 35,000 years and provides new constraints on the fluctuation of ice volume in this interval.
Abstract: The major cause of sea-level change during ice ages is the exchange of water between ice and ocean and the planet's dynamic response to the changing surface load. Inversion of ∼1,000 observations for the past 35,000 y from localities far from former ice margins has provided new constraints on the fluctuation of ice volume in this interval. Key results are: (i) a rapid final fall in global sea level of ∼40 m in <2,000 y at the onset of the glacial maximum ∼30,000 y before present (30 ka BP); (ii) a slow fall to -134 m from 29 to 21 ka BP with a maximum grounded ice volume of ∼52 × 10(6) km(3) greater than today; (iii) after an initial short duration rapid rise and a short interval of near-constant sea level, the main phase of deglaciation occurred from ∼16.5 ka BP to ∼8.2 ka BP at an average rate of rise of 12 m⋅ka(-1) punctuated by periods of greater, particularly at 14.5-14.0 ka BP at ≥40 mm⋅y(-1) (MWP-1A), and lesser, from 12.5 to 11.5 ka BP (Younger Dryas), rates; (iv) no evidence for a global MWP-1B event at ∼11.3 ka BP; and (v) a progressive decrease in the rate of rise from 8.2 ka to ∼2.5 ka BP, after which ocean volumes remained nearly constant until the renewed sea-level rise at 100-150 y ago, with no evidence of oscillations exceeding ∼15-20 cm in time intervals ≥200 y from 6 to 0.15 ka BP.

1,558 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
08 Jan 2016-Science
TL;DR: C climatic, biological, and geochemical signatures of human activity in sediments and ice cores, Combined with deposits of new materials and radionuclides, as well as human-caused modification of sedimentary processes, the Anthropocene stands alone stratigraphically as a new epoch beginning sometime in the mid–20th century.
Abstract: Human activity is leaving a pervasive and persistent signature on Earth. Vigorous debate continues about whether this warrants recognition as a new geologic time unit known as the Anthropocene. We review anthropogenic markers of functional changes in the Earth system through the stratigraphic record. The appearance of manufactured materials in sediments, including aluminum, plastics, and concrete, coincides with global spikes in fallout radionuclides and particulates from fossil fuel combustion. Carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycles have been substantially modified over the past century. Rates of sea-level rise and the extent of human perturbation of the climate system exceed Late Holocene changes. Biotic changes include species invasions worldwide and accelerating rates of extinction. These combined signals render the Anthropocene stratigraphically distinct from the Holocene and earlier epochs.

1,441 citations