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Nicola Di Cosmo

Bio: Nicola Di Cosmo is an academic researcher from Institute for Advanced Study. The author has contributed to research in topics: Empire & History of China. The author has an hindex of 17, co-authored 46 publications receiving 2328 citations. Previous affiliations of Nicola Di Cosmo include Harvard University & Princeton University.
Topics: Empire, History of China, Inner Asia, China, Steppe

Papers
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used tree-ring chronologies from the Russian Altai and European Alps to reconstruct summer temperatures over the past two millennia and found an unprecedented, longlasting and spatially synchronized cooling following a cluster of large volcanic eruptions in 536, 540 and 547 AD.
Abstract: Societal upheaval occurred across Eurasia in the sixth and seventh centuries. Tree-ring reconstructions suggest a period of pronounced cooling during this time associated with several volcanic eruptions. Climatic changes during the first half of the Common Era have been suggested to play a role in societal reorganizations in Europe1,2 and Asia3,4. In particular, the sixth century coincides with rising and falling civilizations1,2,3,4,5,6, pandemics7,8, human migration and political turmoil8,9,10,11,12,13. Our understanding of the magnitude and spatial extent as well as the possible causes and concurrences of climate change during this period is, however, still limited. Here we use tree-ring chronologies from the Russian Altai and European Alps to reconstruct summer temperatures over the past two millennia. We find an unprecedented, long-lasting and spatially synchronized cooling following a cluster of large volcanic eruptions in 536, 540 and 547 AD (ref. 14), which was probably sustained by ocean and sea-ice feedbacks15,16, as well as a solar minimum17. We thus identify the interval from 536 to about 660 AD as the Late Antique Little Ice Age. Spanning most of the Northern Hemisphere, we suggest that this cold phase be considered as an additional environmental factor contributing to the establishment of the Justinian plague7,8, transformation of the eastern Roman Empire and collapse of the Sasanian Empire1,2,5, movements out of the Asian steppe and Arabian Peninsula8,11,12, spread of Slavic-speaking peoples9,10 and political upheavals in China13.

527 citations

MonographDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the Steppe Highway and the rise of pastoral nomadism as a Eurasian phenomenon are discussed. But the authors focus on the early Chinese perceptions of northern peoples.
Abstract: Introduction Part I: 1. The Steppe Highway: the rise of pastoral nomadism as a Eurasian phenomenon 2. Bronze, iron and gold: the evolution of nomadic cultures on the northern frontier of China Part II: 3. Beasts and birds: the historical context of early Chinese perceptions of northern peoples 4. Walls and horses: the beginning of historical contacts between horse-riding Nomads and Chinese states Part III: 5. Those who draw the bow: the rise of the Hsiung-nu Nomadic Empire and the political unification of the Nomads 6. From peace to war: China's shift from appeasement to military engagement Part IV: 7. In search of grass and water: ethnography and history of the North in the Historian's Records 8. Taming the North: the rationalization of the nomads in Ssu-ma Ch'ien's historical thought Conclusion.

399 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A 1,112-y tree-ring record of moisture shows that in opposition to conventional wisdom, the climate during the rise of the 13th-century Mongol Empire was a period of persistent moisture, unprecedented in the last 1,000 y.
Abstract: Although many studies have associated the demise of complex societies with deteriorating climate, few have investigated the connection between an ameliorating environment, surplus resources, energy, and the rise of empires. The 13th-century Mongol Empire was the largest contiguous land empire in world history. Although drought has been proposed as one factor that spurred these conquests, no high-resolution moisture data are available during the rapid development of the Mongol Empire. Here we present a 1,112-y tree-ring reconstruction of warm-season water balance derived from Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) trees in central Mongolia. Our reconstruction accounts for 56% of the variability in the regional water balance and is significantly correlated with steppe productivity across central Mongolia. In combination with a gridded temperature reconstruction, our results indicate that the regional climate during the conquests of Chinggis Khan’s (Genghis Khan’s) 13th-century Mongol Empire was warm and persistently wet. This period, characterized by 15 consecutive years of above-average moisture in central Mongolia and coinciding with the rise of Chinggis Khan, is unprecedented over the last 1,112 y. We propose that these climate conditions promoted high grassland productivity and favored the formation of Mongol political and military power. Tree-ring and meteorological data also suggest that the early 21st-century drought in central Mongolia was the hottest drought in the last 1,112 y, consistent with projections of warming over Inner Asia. Future warming may overwhelm increases in precipitation leading to similar heat droughts, with potentially severe consequences for modern Mongolia.

210 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the Steppe Highway and the rise of pastoral nomadism as a Eurasian phenomenon are discussed. But the authors focus on the early Chinese perceptions of northern peoples.
Abstract: Introduction Part I: 1. The Steppe Highway: the rise of pastoral nomadism as a Eurasian phenomenon 2. Bronze, iron and gold: the evolution of nomadic cultures on the northern frontier of China Part II: 3. Beasts and birds: the historical context of early Chinese perceptions of northern peoples 4. Walls and horses: the beginning of historical contacts between horse-riding Nomads and Chinese states Part III: 5. Those who draw the bow: the rise of the Hsiung-nu Nomadic Empire and the political unification of the Nomads 6. From peace to war: China's shift from appeasement to military engagement Part IV: 7. In search of grass and water: ethnography and history of the North in the Historian's Records 8. Taming the North: the rationalization of the nomads in Ssu-ma Ch'ien's historical thought Conclusion.

197 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In the course of time, with the historical development of powerful nomadic states confronting China militarily and politically, the attributes of "greedy" and "ravenous" stuck essentially to those people who “moved in search of grass and water”: the pastoral nomads as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: Such non-chinese people as the rong, di, and hu are often portrayed in the traditional historiography of ancient China as greedy, aggressive, and acquisitive (Sinor 1978; Honey 1990). Chinese writings of the Zhou dynasty (c. 1050–256 b.c.) contain many instances of unflattering statements aimed at foreign peoples: the Zuo zhuan compares the Rong and Di to wolves (ZZ, 1:209); the Zhan guo ce says the state of Qin shares the same attributes as the Rong and Di—the heart of a tiger or wolf, greed, and cruelty (ZGC, 11:869; cf. Crump 1970:436). Foreign peoples were often considered “have-nots” with an insatiable lust for Chinese goods, mainly silk, grains, and, later, tea. This stereotype, which developed in the historical sources along with the process of crystallization of the Chinese ethnocultural identity and codification of the written and oral traditions, was regarded as sufficient to account for otherwise complex social and political phenomena. In the course of time, with the historical development of powerful nomadic states confronting China militarily and politically, the attributes of “greedy” and “ravenous” stuck essentially to those people who “moved in search of grass and water”: the pastoral nomads.

189 citations


Cited by
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article used two paleoclimate reconstructions of drought and precipitation for Central and Southern California to place this current event in the context of the last millennium and demonstrate that while 3 year periods of persistent below-average soil moisture are not uncommon, the current event is the most severe drought in the last 1200 years, with single year (2014) and accumulated moisture deficits worse than any previous continuous span of dry years.
Abstract: For the past three years (2012–2014), California has experienced the most severe drought conditions in its last century. But how unusual is this event? Here we use two paleoclimate reconstructions of drought and precipitation for Central and Southern California to place this current event in the context of the last millennium. We demonstrate that while 3 year periods of persistent below-average soil moisture are not uncommon, the current event is the most severe drought in the last 1200 years, with single year (2014) and accumulated moisture deficits worse than any previous continuous span of dry years. Tree ring chronologies extended through the 2014 growing season reveal that precipitation during the drought has been anomalously low but not outside the range of natural variability. The current California drought is exceptionally severe in the context of at least the last millennium and is driven by reduced though not unprecedented precipitation and record high temperatures.

754 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
01 Jun 1991

531 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The distinctive feature of Western economies since 1800 has not been growth per se, but growth based on a specific set of elements: engines to extract motive power from fossil fuels, to a degree hitherto rarely appreciated by historians, and the marriage of empirically oriented science to a national culture of educated craftsmen and entrepreneurs broadly educated in basic principles of mechanics and experimental approaches to knowledge.
Abstract: The "Rise of the West" has been treated by economic historians as stemming from the onset of rapid economic growth, driven by technological advances. In contrast, all premodern and non-Western economies have been treated as showing only slow or no growth, interrupted by periodic crises. This is an error. Examined closely, many premodern and non-Western economies show spurts or efflorescences of economic growth, including sustained increases in both population and living standards, in urbanization, and in underlying technological change. Medieval Europe, Golden Age Holland, and Qing China, among other cases, show such remarkable efflorescences of impressive economic growth.Yet these did not lead to modern industrialized societies. The distinctive feature of Western economies since 1800 has not been growth per se, but growth based on a specific set of elements: engines to extract motive power from fossil fuels, to a degree hitherto rarely appreciated by historians; the application of empirical science to understanding both nature and practical problems of production; and the marriage of empirically oriented science to a national culture of educated craftsmen and entrepreneurs broadly educated in basic principles of mechanics and experimental approaches to knowledge. This combination developed from the seventeenth to nineteenth centuries only in Britain, and was unlikely to have developed anywhere else in world history.

371 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A comprehensive satellite-based evaluation of lake shrinkage across the Mongolian Plateau finds a greater decreasing rate of the number of lakes in Inner Mongolia than in Mongolia between the late 1980s and 2010, due mainly to an unsustainable mining boom and agricultural irrigation in the former.
Abstract: Lakes are widely distributed on the Mongolian Plateau and, as critical water sources, have sustained Mongolian pastures for hundreds of years. However, the plateau has experienced significant lake shrinkage and grassland degradation during the past several decades. To quantify the changes in all of the lakes on the plateau and the associated driving factors, we performed a satellite-based survey using multitemporal Landsat images from the 1970s to 2000s, combined with ground-based censuses. Our results document a rapid loss of lakes on the plateau in the past decades: the number of lakes with a water surface area >1 km2 decreased from 785 in the late 1980s to 577 in 2010, with a greater rate of decrease (34.0%) in Inner Mongolia of China than in Mongolia (17.6%). This decrease has been particularly pronounced since the late 1990s in Inner Mongolia and the number of lakes >10 km2 has declined by 30.0%. The statistical analyses suggested that in Mongolia precipitation was the dominant driver for the lake changes, and in Inner Mongolia coal mining was most important in its grassland area and irrigation was the leading factor in its cultivated area. The deterioration of lakes is expected to continue in the following decades not only because of changing climate but also increasing exploitation of underground mineral and groundwater resources on the plateau. To protect grasslands and the indigenous nomads, effective action is urgently required to save these valuable lakes from further deterioration.

358 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is demonstrated that depending on scenarios of population growth and warming, over the coming 50 y, 1 to 3 billion people are projected to be left outside the climate conditions that have served humanity well over the past 6,000 y.
Abstract: All species have an environmental niche, and despite technological advances, humans are unlikely to be an exception. Here, we demonstrate that for millennia, human populations have resided in the same narrow part of the climatic envelope available on the globe, characterized by a major mode around ∼11 °C to 15 °C mean annual temperature (MAT). Supporting the fundamental nature of this temperature niche, current production of crops and livestock is largely limited to the same conditions, and the same optimum has been found for agricultural and nonagricultural economic output of countries through analyses of year-to-year variation. We show that in a business-as-usual climate change scenario, the geographical position of this temperature niche is projected to shift more over the coming 50 y than it has moved since 6000 BP. Populations will not simply track the shifting climate, as adaptation in situ may address some of the challenges, and many other factors affect decisions to migrate. Nevertheless, in the absence of migration, one third of the global population is projected to experience a MAT >29 °C currently found in only 0.8% of the Earth’s land surface, mostly concentrated in the Sahara. As the potentially most affected regions are among the poorest in the world, where adaptive capacity is low, enhancing human development in those areas should be a priority alongside climate mitigation.

315 citations