Nicolas Theys

Bio: Nicolas Theys is an academic researcher from Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy. The author has contributed to research in topics: Volcano & Ozone Monitoring Instrument. The author has an hindex of 29, co-authored 103 publications receiving 3153 citations.

Cleaning up the air: effectiveness of air quality policy for SO 2 and NO x emissions in China

Abstract: . Air quality observations by satellite instruments are global and have a regular temporal resolution, which makes them very useful in studying long-term trends in atmospheric species. To monitor air quality trends in China for the period 2005–2015, we derive SO2 columns and NOx emissions on a provincial level with improved accuracy. To put these trends into perspective they are compared with public data on energy consumption and the environmental policies of China. We distinguish the effect of air quality regulations from economic growth by comparing them relatively to fossil fuel consumption. Pollutant levels, per unit of fossil fuel, are used to assess the effectiveness of air quality regulations. We note that the desulfurization regulations enforced in 2005–2006 only had a significant effect in the years 2008–2009, when a much stricter control of the actual use of the installations began. For national NOx emissions a distinct decreasing trend is only visible from 2012 onwards, but the emission peak year differs from province to province. Unlike SO2, emissions of NOx are highly related to traffic. Furthermore, regulations for NOx emissions are partly decided on a provincial level. The last 3 years show a reduction both in SO2 and NOx emissions per fossil fuel unit, since the authorities have implemented several new environmental regulations. Despite an increasing fossil fuel consumption and a growing transport sector, the effects of air quality policy in China are clearly visible. Without the air quality regulations the concentration of SO2 would be about 2.5 times higher and the NO2 concentrations would be at least 25 % higher than they are today in China.

A global catalogue of large SO 2 sources and emissions derived from theOzone Monitoring Instrument

Abstract: Sulfur dioxide (SO2) measurements from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite sensor processed with the new principal component analysis (PCA) algorithm were used to detect large point emission sources or clusters of sources The total of 491 continuously emitting point sources releasing from about 30 kt yr−1 to more than 4000 kt yr−1 of SO2 per year have been identified and grouped by country and by primary source origin: volcanoes (76 sources); power plants (297); smelters (53); and sources related to the oil and gas industry (65) The sources were identified using different methods, including through OMI measurements themselves applied to a new emission detection algorithm, and their evolution during the 2005–2014 period was traced by estimating annual emissions from each source For volcanic sources, the study focused on continuous degassing, and emissions from explosive eruptions were excluded Emissions from degassing volcanic sources were measured, many for the first time, and collectively they account for about 30 % of total SO2 emissions estimated from OMI measurements, but that fraction has increased in recent years given that cumulative global emissions from power plants and smelters are declining while emissions from oil and gas industry remained nearly constant Anthropogenic emissions from the USA declined by 80 % over the 2005–2014 period as did emissions from western and central Europe, whereas emissions from India nearly doubled, and emissions from other large SO2-emitting regions (South Africa, Russia, Mexico, and the Middle East) remained fairly constant In total, OMI-based estimates account for about a half of total reported anthropogenic SO2 emissions; the remaining half is likely related to sources emitting less than 30 kt yr−1 and not detected by OMI

Tropospheric bromine chemistry: implications for present and pre-industrial ozone and mercury

Abstract: We present a new model for the global tro- pospheric chemistry of inorganic bromine (Bry) coupled to oxidant-aerosol chemistry in the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model (CTM). Sources of tropospheric Bry include debromination of sea-salt aerosol, photolysis and oxidation of short-lived bromocarbons, and transport from the strato- sphere. Comparison to a GOME-2 satellite climatology of tropospheric BrO columns shows that the model can repro- duce the observed increase of BrO with latitude, the northern mid-latitudes maximum in winter, and the Arctic maximum in spring. This successful simulation is contingent on the HOBr + HBr reaction taking place in aqueous aerosols and ice clouds. Bromine chemistry in the model decreases tro- pospheric ozone mixing ratios by < 1-8 nmol mol 1 (6.5 % globally), with the largest effects in the northern extratropics in spring. The global mean tropospheric OH concentration decreases by 4 %. Inclusion of bromine chemistry improves the ability of global models (GEOS-Chem and p-TOMCAT) to simulate observed 19th-century ozone and its seasonality. Bromine effects on tropospheric ozone are comparable in the present-day and pre-industrial atmospheres so that estimates of anthropogenic radiative forcing are minimally affected. Br atom concentrations are 40 % higher in the pre-industrial at- mosphere due to lower ozone, which would decrease by a factor of 2 the atmospheric lifetime of elemental mercury against oxidation by Br. This suggests that historical anthro- pogenic mercury emissions may have mostly deposited to northern mid-latitudes, enriching the corresponding surface reservoirs. The persistent rise in background surface ozone at northern mid-latitudes during the past decades could pos- sibly contribute to the observations of elevated mercury in subsurface waters of the North Atlantic.

Diurnal, seasonal and long-term variations of global formaldehyde columns inferred from combined OMI and GOME-2 observations

Abstract: . We present the new version (v14) of the BIRA-IASB algorithm for the retrieval of formaldehyde (H2CO) columns from spaceborne UV–visible sensors. Applied to OMI measurements from Aura and to GOME-2 measurements from MetOp-A and MetOp-B, this algorithm is used to produce global distributions of H2CO representative of mid-morning and early afternoon conditions. Its main features include (1) a new iterative DOAS scheme involving three fitting intervals to better account for the O2–O2 absorption, (2) the use of earthshine radiances averaged in the equatorial Pacific as reference spectra, and (3) a destriping correction and background normalisation resolved in the across-swath position. For the air mass factor calculation, a priori vertical profiles calculated by the IMAGES chemistry transport model at 09:30 and 13:30 LT are used. Although the resulting GOME-2 and OMI H2CO vertical columns are found to be highly correlated, some systematic differences are observed. Afternoon columns are generally larger than morning ones, especially in mid-latitude regions. In contrast, over tropical rainforests, morning H2CO columns significantly exceed those observed in the afternoon. These differences are discussed in terms of the H2CO column variation between mid-morning and early afternoon, using ground-based MAX-DOAS measurements available from seven stations in Europe, China and Africa. Validation results confirm the capacity of the combined satellite measurements to resolve diurnal variations in H2CO columns. Furthermore, vertical profiles derived from MAX-DOAS measurements in the Beijing area and in Bujumbura are used for a more detailed validation exercise. In both regions, we find an agreement better than 15 % when MAX-DOAS profiles are used as a priori for the satellite retrievals. Finally, regional trends in H2CO columns are estimated for the 2004–2014 period using SCIAMACHY and GOME-2 data for morning conditions, and OMI for early afternoon conditions. Consistent features are observed, such as an increase of the columns in India and central–eastern China, and a decrease in the eastern US and Europe. We find that the higher horizontal resolution of OMI combined with a better sampling and a more favourable illumination at midday allow for more significant trend estimates, especially over Europe and North America. Importantly, in some parts of the Amazonian forest, we observe with both time series a significant downward trend in H2CO columns, spatially correlated with areas affected by deforestation.

Volcanic SO 2 fluxes derived from satellite data: a survey using OMI, GOME-2, IASI and MODIS

Abstract: . Sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ) fluxes of active degassing volcanoes are routinely measured with ground-based equipment to characterize and monitor volcanic activity. SO 2 of unmonitored volcanoes or from explosive volcanic eruptions, can be measured with satellites. However, remote-sensing methods based on absorption spectroscopy generally provide integrated amounts of already dispersed plumes of SO 2 and satellite derived flux estimates are rarely reported. Here we review a number of different techniques to derive volcanic SO 2 fluxes using satellite measurements of plumes of SO 2 and investigate the temporal evolution of the total emissions of SO 2 for three very different volcanic events in 2011: Puyehue-Cordon Caulle (Chile), Nyamulagira (DR Congo) and Nabro (Eritrea). High spectral resolution satellite instruments operating both in the ultraviolet-visible (OMI/Aura and GOME-2/MetOp-A) and thermal infrared (IASI/MetOp-A) spectral ranges, and multispectral satellite instruments operating in the thermal infrared (MODIS/Terra-Aqua) are used. We show that satellite data can provide fluxes with a sampling of a day or less (few hours in the best case). Generally the flux results from the different methods are consistent, and we discuss the advantages and weaknesses of each technique. Although the primary objective of this study is the calculation of SO 2 fluxes, it also enables us to assess the consistency of the SO 2 products from the different sensors used.

Numerical study of convection observed during the Winter Monsoon Experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model [presentation]

Abstract: Abstract A two-dimensional version of the Pennsylvania State University mesoscale model has been applied to Winter Monsoon Experiment data in order to simulate the diurnally occurring convection observed over the South China Sea. The domain includes a representation of part of Borneo as well as the sea so that the model can simulate the initiation of convection. Also included in the model are parameterizations of mesoscale ice phase and moisture processes and longwave and shortwave radiation with a diurnal cycle. This allows use of the model to test the relative importance of various heating mechanisms to the stratiform cloud deck, which typically occupies several hundred kilometers of the domain. Frank and Cohen's cumulus parameterization scheme is employed to represent vital unresolved vertical transports in the convective area. The major conclusions are: Ice phase processes are important in determining the level of maximum large-scale heating and vertical motion because there is a strong anvil componen...

An inventory of gaseous and primary aerosol emissions in Asia in the year 2000 : NASA global tropospheric experiment transport and chemical evolution over the pacific (TRACE-P): Measurements and analysis (TRACEP1)

Abstract: [i] An inventory of air pollutant emissions in Asia in the year 2000 is developed to support atmospheric modeling and analysis of observations taken during the TRACE-P experiment funded by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the ACE-Asia experiment funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Emissions are estimated for all major anthropogenic sources, including biomass burning, in 64 regions of Asia. We estimate total Asian emissions as follows: 34.3 Tg SO 2 , 26.8 Tg NO x , 9870 Tg CO 2 , 279 Tg CO, 107 Tg CH 4 , 52.2 Tg NMVOC, 2.54 Tg black carbon (BC), 10.4 Tg organic carbon (OC), and 27.5 Tg NH 3 . In addition, NMVOC are speciated into 19 subcategories according to functional groups and reactivity. Thus we are able to identify the major source regions and types for many of the significant gaseous and particle emissions that influence pollutant concentrations in the vicinity of the TRACE-P and ACE-Asia field measurements. Emissions in China dominate the signature of pollutant concentrations in this region, so special emphasis has been placed on the development of emission estimates for China. China's emissions are determined to be as follows: 20.4 Tg SO 2 , 11.4 Tg NO x , 3820 Tg CO 2 , 116 Tg CO, 38.4 Tg CH 4 , 17.4 Tg NMVOC, 1.05 Tg BC, 3.4 Tg OC, and 13.6 Tg NH 3 . Emissions are gridded at a variety of spatial resolutions from 1° × 1° to 30 s x 30 s, using the exact locations of large point sources and surrogate GIS distributions of urban and rural population, road networks, landcover, ship lanes, etc. The gridded emission estimates have been used as inputs to atmospheric simulation models and have proven to be generally robust in comparison with field observations, though there is reason to think that emissions of CO and possibly BC may be underestimated. Monthly emission estimates for China are developed for each species to aid TRACE-P and ACE-Asia data interpretation. During the observation period of March/ April, emissions are roughly at their average values (one twelfth of annual). Uncertainties in the emission estimates, measured as 95% confidence intervals, range from a low of ±16% for SO 2 to a high of ±450% for OC.

Mercury as a Global Pollutant: Sources, Pathways, and Effects

Abstract: Mercury (Hg) is a global pollutant that affects human and ecosystem health. We synthesize understanding of sources, atmosphere-land-ocean Hg dynamics and health effects, and consider the implications of Hg-control policies. Primary anthropogenic Hg emissions greatly exceed natural geogenic sources, resulting in increases in Hg reservoirs and subsequent secondary Hg emissions that facilitate its global distribution. The ultimate fate of emitted Hg is primarily recalcitrant soil pools and deep ocean waters and sediments. Transfers of Hg emissions to largely unavailable reservoirs occur over the time scale of centuries, and are primarily mediated through atmospheric exchanges of wet/dry deposition and evasion from vegetation, soil organic matter and ocean surfaces. A key link between inorganic Hg inputs and exposure of humans and wildlife is the net production of methylmercury, which occurs mainly in reducing zones in freshwater, terrestrial, and coastal environments, and the subsurface ocean. Elevated human exposure to methylmercury primarily results from consumption of estuarine and marine fish. Developing fetuses are most at risk from this neurotoxin but health effects of highly exposed populations and wildlife are also a concern. Integration of Hg science with national and international policy efforts is needed to target efforts and evaluate efficacy.

This is How the Discussion Started

Abstract: A copy of Guangbo jiemu bao [Broadcast Program Report] was being passed from hand to hand among a group of young people eager to be the first to read the article introducing the program "What Is Revolutionary Love?" It said: "… Young friends, you are certainly very concerned about this problem'. So, we would like you to meet the young women workers Meng Xiaoyu and Meng Yamei and the older cadre Miss Feng. They are the three leading characters in the short story ‘The Place of Love.’ Through the description of the love lives of these three, the story induces us to think deeply about two questions that merit further examination.

Trends in China's anthropogenic emissions since 2010 as the consequence of clean air actions

Abstract: . To tackle the problem of severe air pollution, China has implemented active clean air policies in recent years. As a consequence, the emissions of major air pollutants have decreased and the air quality has substantially improved. Here, we quantified China's anthropogenic emission trends from 2010 to 2017 and identified the major driving forces of these trends by using a combination of bottom-up emission inventory and index decomposition analysis (IDA) approaches. The relative change rates of China's anthropogenic emissions during 2010–2017 are estimated as follows: −62 % for SO2 , −17 % for NOx , +11 % for nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), +1 % for NH3 , −27 % for CO, −38 % for PM 10 , −35 % for PM 2.5 , −27 % for BC, −35 % for OC, and +16 % for CO2 . The IDA results suggest that emission control measures are the main drivers of this reduction, in which the pollution controls on power plants and industries are the most effective mitigation measures. The emission reduction rates markedly accelerated after the year 2013, confirming the effectiveness of China's Clean Air Action that was implemented since 2013. We estimated that during 2013–2017, China's anthropogenic emissions decreased by 59 % for SO2 , 21 % for NOx , 23 % for CO, 36 % for PM 10 , 33 % for PM 2.5 , 28 % for BC, and 32 % for OC. NMVOC emissions increased and NH3 emissions remained stable during 2010–2017, representing the absence of effective mitigation measures for NMVOCs and NH3 in current policies. The relative contributions of different sectors to emissions have significantly changed after several years' implementation of clean air policies, indicating that it is paramount to introduce new policies to enable further emission reductions in the future.