Nils Broothaerts

Bio: Nils Broothaerts is an academic researcher from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven. The author has contributed to research in topics: Floodplain & Erosion. The author has an hindex of 13, co-authored 30 publications receiving 573 citations. Previous affiliations of Nils Broothaerts include VU University Amsterdam.

Legacy of human-induced C erosion and burial on soil–atmosphere C exchange

Abstract: Carbon exchange associated with accelerated erosion following land cover change is an important component of the global C cycle. In current assessments, however, this component is not accounted for. Here, we integrate the effects of accelerated C erosion across point, hillslope, and catchment scale for the 780-km2 Dijle River catchment over the period 4000 B.C. to A.D. 2000 to demonstrate that accelerated erosion results in a net C sink. We found this long-term C sink to be equivalent to 43% of the eroded C and to have offset 39% (17–66%) of the C emissions due to anthropogenic land cover change since the advent of agriculture. Nevertheless, the erosion-induced C sink strength is limited by a significant loss of buried C in terrestrial depositional stores, which lagged the burial. The time lag between burial and subsequent loss at this study site implies that the C buried in eroded terrestrial deposits during the agricultural expansion of the last 150 y cannot be assumed to be inert to further destabilization, and indeed might become a significant C source. Our analysis exemplifies that accounting for the non–steady-state C dynamics in geomorphic active systems is pertinent to understanding both past and future anthropogenic global change.

Spatial patterns, causes and consequences of landslides in the Gilgel Gibe catchment, SW Ethiopia

Abstract: The Gilgel Gibe catchment in SW Ethiopia is one of the areas in East Africa affected by landslides. To better understand the patterns and the causal factors of these landslides, all landslides in a small study area (14 km²) in the hilly parts of the Gilgel Gibe catchment were mapped and analyzed. In total, 60 landslides were mapped. These landslides caused a displacement of 1 million m³ slope material, which corresponds to a mean displaced volume of 50 ton ha − 1 y − 1 in the last 20 years. Moreover many landslides deliver directly sediment to the rivers and hence increase the sediment load in the rivers. This soil loss to the rivers was estimated at 11 ton ha − 1 y − 1 during the same period. High annual rainfall (ca. 2000 mm y − 1 ), lithological and pedological properties and to a lesser extent steep (> 16°) slopes turn the area into an inherent unstable situation and can be indicated as preconditions for the landslides in the study area. Distance to rivers is significantly the most important precondition, as slopes near rivers are less stable than slopes further away from the rivers. This is mainly caused by river incision and bank erosion which often occur in the area and which can be attributed to increased runoff due to deforestation over the past 20 years. Therefore recent deforestation caused more shallow landslides but also indirectly more deep-seated landslides close to the rivers. Heavy rainfall is indicated as the main triggering factor for almost all landslides.

Widespread global peatland establishment and persistence over the last 130,000 y

Abstract: Glacial−interglacial variations in CO2 and methane in polar ice cores have been attributed, in part, to changes in global wetland extent, but the wetland distribution before the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ka to 18 ka) remains virtually unknown. We present a study of global peatland extent and carbon (C) stocks through the last glacial cycle (130 ka to present) using a newly compiled database of 1,063 detailed stratigraphic records of peat deposits buried by mineral sediments, as well as a global peatland model. Quantitative agreement between modeling and observations shows extensive peat accumulation before the LGM in northern latitudes (>40°N), particularly during warmer periods including the last interglacial (130 ka to 116 ka, MIS 5e) and the interstadial (57 ka to 29 ka, MIS 3). During cooling periods of glacial advance and permafrost formation, the burial of northern peatlands by glaciers and mineral sediments decreased active peatland extent, thickness, and modeled C stocks by 70 to 90% from warmer times. Tropical peatland extent and C stocks show little temporal variation throughout the study period. While the increased burial of northern peats was correlated with cooling periods, the burial of tropical peat was predominately driven by changes in sea level and regional hydrology. Peat burial by mineral sediments represents a mechanism for long-term terrestrial C storage in the Earth system. These results show that northern peatlands accumulate significant C stocks during warmer times, indicating their potential for C sequestration during the warming Anthropocene.

Evidence of anthropogenic tipping points in fluvial dynamics in Europe

Abstract: In this study the occurrence of thresholds in fluvial style changes during the Holocene are discussed for three different catchments: the Dijle and Ambleve catchments (Belgium) and the Valdaine Region (France). We consider tipping points to be a specific type of threshold, defined as relatively rapid and irreversible changes in the system. Field data demonstrate that fluvial style has varied in all three catchments over time, and that different tipping points can be identified. An increase in sediment load as a result of human induced soil erosion lead to a permanent change in the Dijle floodplains from a forested peaty marsh towards open landscape with clastic deposition and a well-defined river channel. In the Valdaine catchment, an increase in coarse sediment load, caused by increased erosion in the mountainous upper catchment, altered the floodplains from a meandering pattern to a braided pattern. Other changes in fluvial style appeared to be reversible. Rivers in the Valdaine were prone to different aggradation and incision phases due to changes in peak water discharge and sediment delivery, but the impact was too low for these changes to be irreversible. Likewise the Dijle River has recently be prone to an incision phase due to a clear water effect, and also this change is expected to be reversible. Finally, the Ambleve River did not undergo major changes in style during the last 2000 to 5000 years, even though floodplain sedimentation rates increased tenfold during the last 600 years. Overall, these examples demonstrate how changes in fluvial style depend on the crossing of thresholds in sediment supply and water discharge. Although changes in these controlling parameters are caused by anthropogenic land use changes, the link between those land use changes and changes in fluvial style is not linear. This is due to the temporal variability in landscape connectivity and sediment transport and the non-linear relationship between land use intensity and soil erosion.

A novel ensemble bivariate statistical evidential belief function with knowledge-based analytical hierarchy process and multivariate statistical logistic regression for landslide susceptibility mapping

Abstract: This study compares the landslide susceptibility maps from four application models, namely, (1) the bivariate model of the Dempster–Shafer based evidential belief function (EBF); (2) integration of the EBF in the knowledge-based analytical hierarchy process (AHP) as a pairwise comparison model processed by using all available causative factors; (3) integration of the EBF in the knowledge-based AHP as a pairwise comparison model by using high nominated causative factor weights only; and (4) integrated EBF in the logistic regression (LR) as a multivariate model by using nominated causative factor weights only. These models were tested in Pohang and Gyeongju Cities (South Korea) by using the geographic information system GIS platform. In the first step, a landslide inventory map consisting of 296 landslide locations were prepared from various data sources. Then, a total of 15 landslide causative factors (slope angle, slope aspect, curvature, surface roughness, altitude, distance from drainages, stream power index, topographic wetness index, wood age, wood diameter, wood type, forest density, soil thickness, soil texture, and soil drainage) were extracted from the database and then converted into a raster. Final susceptibility maps exhibit close results from the two models. Models 1 and 3 predicted 82.3% and 80% of testing data during the analysis, respectively. Thus, Models 1 and 3 show better performance than LR. These resultant maps can be used to extend the capability of bivariate statistical based model, by finding the relationship between each single conditioning factor and landslide locations, moreover, the proposed ensemble model can be used to show the inter-relationships importance between each conditioning factors, without the need to refer to the multivariate statistic. The research outcome may provide powerful tools for natural hazard assessment and land use planning.

Large stocks of peatland carbon and nitrogen are vulnerable to permafrost thaw.

Abstract: Northern peatlands have accumulated large stocks of organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), but their spatial distribution and vulnerability to climate warming remain uncertain. Here, we used machine-learning techniques with extensive peat core data (n > 7,000) to create observation-based maps of northern peatland C and N stocks, and to assess their response to warming and permafrost thaw. We estimate that northern peatlands cover 3.7 ± 0.5 million km2 and store 415 ± 150 Pg C and 10 ± 7 Pg N. Nearly half of the peatland area and peat C stocks are permafrost affected. Using modeled global warming stabilization scenarios (from 1.5 to 6 °C warming), we project that the current sink of atmospheric C (0.10 ± 0.02 Pg C⋅y-1) in northern peatlands will shift to a C source as 0.8 to 1.9 million km2 of permafrost-affected peatlands thaw. The projected thaw would cause peatland greenhouse gas emissions equal to ∼1% of anthropogenic radiative forcing in this century. The main forcing is from methane emissions (0.7 to 3 Pg cumulative CH4-C) with smaller carbon dioxide forcing (1 to 2 Pg CO2-C) and minor nitrous oxide losses. We project that initial CO2-C losses reverse after ∼200 y, as warming strengthens peatland C-sinks. We project substantial, but highly uncertain, additional losses of peat into fluvial systems of 10 to 30 Pg C and 0.4 to 0.9 Pg N. The combined gaseous and fluvial peatland C loss estimated here adds 30 to 50% onto previous estimates of permafrost-thaw C losses, with southern permafrost regions being the most vulnerable.