Nitin Singh

Bio: Nitin Singh is an academic researcher from Motilal Nehru National Institute of Technology Allahabad. The author has contributed to research in topics: Microgrid & Particle swarm optimization. The author has an hindex of 6, co-authored 38 publications receiving 145 citations.

A Review of Price Forecasting Problem and Techniques in Deregulated Electricity Markets

Abstract: In deregulated electricity markets, price forecasting is gaining importance between various market players in the power in order to adjust their bids in the day-ahead electricity markets and maximize their profits. Electricity price is volatile but non random in nature making it possible to identify the patterns based on the historical data and forecast. An accurate price forecasting method is an important factor for the market players as it enables them to decide their bidding strategy to maximize profits. Various models have been developed over a period of time which can be broadly classified into two types of models that are mainly used for Electricity Price forecasting are: 1) Time series models; and 2) Simulation based models; time series models are widely used among the two, for day ahead forecasting. The presented work summarizes the influencing factors that affect the price behavior and various established forecasting models based on time series analysis, such as Linear regression based models, nonlinear heuristics based models and other simulation based models.

Model order reduction using factor division algorithm and fuzzy c-means clustering technique:

Abstract: This paper proposes a novel hybrid approach that combines factor division algorithm and fuzzy c-means clustering technique for reducing the model order of high-order linear time invariant system. T...

Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting Using Hybrid SARIMA and GJR-GARCH Model

Abstract: The liberalization of the power markets gained a remarkable momentum in the context of trading electricity as a commodity. With the upsurge in restructuring of the power markets, electricity price plays a dominant role in the current deregulated market scenario which is majorly influenced by the economics being governed. Electricity price has got great affect on the market and is used as a basic information device to evaluate the future markets. However, highly volatile nature of the electricity price makes it even more difficult to forecast. In order to achieve better forecast from any model, the volatility of the electricity price need to be considered. This paper proposes a price forecasting approach combining wavelet, SARIMA and GJR-GARCH models. The input price series is transformed using wavelet transform and the obtained approximate and detail components are predicted separately using SARIMA and GJR-GARCH model respectively. The case study of New South Wales electricity market is considered to check the performance of the proposed model.

Forecasting Models for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19): A Survey of the State-of-the-Art

Abstract: COVID-19 is a pandemic that has affected over 170 countries around the world. The number of infected and deceased patients has been increasing at an alarming rate in almost all the affected nations. Forecasting techniques can be inculcated thereby assisting in designing better strategies and in taking productive decisions. These techniques assess the situations of the past thereby enabling better predictions about the situation to occur in the future. These predictions might help to prepare against possible threats and consequences. Forecasting techniques play a very important role in yielding accurate predictions. This study categorizes forecasting techniques into two types, namely, stochastic theory mathematical models and data science/machine learning techniques. Data collected from various platforms also play a vital role in forecasting. In this study, two categories of datasets have been discussed, i.e., big data accessed from World Health Organization/National databases and data from a social media communication. Forecasting of a pandemic can be done based on various parameters such as the impact of environmental factors, incubation period, the impact of quarantine, age, gender and many more. These techniques and parameters used for forecasting are extensively studied in this work. However, forecasting techniques come with their own set of challenges (technical and generic). This study discusses these challenges and also provides a set of recommendations for the people who are currently fighting the global COVID-19 pandemic.

Forecasting methods in energy planning models

Abstract: Energy planning models (EPMs) play an indispensable role in policy formulation and energy sector development. The forecasting of energy demand and supply is at the heart of an EPM. Different forecasting methods, from statistical to machine learning have been applied in the past. The selection of a forecasting method is mostly based on data availability and the objectives of the tool and planning exercise. We present a systematic and critical review of forecasting methods used in 483 EPMs. The methods were analyzed for forecasting accuracy; applicability for temporal and spatial predictions; and relevance to planning and policy objectives. Fifty different forecasting methods have been identified. Artificial neural network (ANN) is the most widely used method, which is applied in 40% of the reviewed EPMs. The other popular methods, in descending order, are: support vector machine (SVM), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), fuzzy logic (FL), linear regression (LR), genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO), grey prediction (GM) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA). In terms of accuracy, computational intelligence (CI) methods demonstrate better performance than that of the statistical ones, in particular for parameters with greater variability in the source data. However, hybrid methods yield better accuracy than that of the stand-alone ones. Statistical methods are useful for only short and medium range, while CI methods are preferable for all temporal forecasting ranges (short, medium and long). Based on objective, most EPMs focused on energy demand and load forecasting. In terms geographical coverage, the highest number of EPMs were developed on China. However, collectively, more models were established for the developed countries than the developing ones. Findings would benefit researchers and professionals in gaining an appreciation of the forecasting methods, and enable them to select appropriate method(s) to meet their needs.