Oisín Ryan

Bio: Oisín Ryan is an academic researcher from Utrecht University. The author has contributed to research in topics: Theory & Psychology. The author has an hindex of 9, co-authored 15 publications receiving 496 citations. Previous affiliations of Oisín Ryan include University of Limerick.

A systematic review of Bayesian articles in psychology: The last 25 years.

Abstract: Although the statistical tools most often used by researchers in the field of psychology over the last 25 years are based on frequentist statistics, it is often claimed that the alternative Bayesian approach to statistics is gaining in popularity. In the current article, we investigated this claim by performing the very first systematic review of Bayesian psychological articles published between 1990 and 2015 (n = 1,579). We aim to provide a thorough presentation of the role Bayesian statistics plays in psychology. This historical assessment allows us to identify trends and see how Bayesian methods have been integrated into psychological research in the context of different statistical frameworks (e.g., hypothesis testing, cognitive models, IRT, SEM, etc.). We also describe take-home messages and provide "big-picture" recommendations to the field as Bayesian statistics becomes more popular. Our review indicated that Bayesian statistics is used in a variety of contexts across subfields of psychology and related disciplines. There are many different reasons why one might choose to use Bayes (e.g., the use of priors, estimating otherwise intractable models, modeling uncertainty, etc.). We found in this review that the use of Bayes has increased and broadened in the sense that this methodology can be used in a flexible manner to tackle many different forms of questions. We hope this presentation opens the door for a larger discussion regarding the current state of Bayesian statistics, as well as future trends. (PsycINFO Database Record

Pancultural Nostalgia: Prototypical Conceptions Across Cultures

Abstract: Nostalgia is a frequently experienced complex emotion, understood by laypersons in the United Kingdom and United States of America to (a) refer prototypically to fond, self-relevant, social memories and (b) be more pleasant (e.g., happy, warm) than unpleasant (e.g., sad, regretful). This research examined whether people across cultures conceive of nostalgia in the same way. Students in 18 countries across 5 continents (N = 1,704) rated the prototypicality of 35 features of nostalgia. The samples showed high levels of agreement on the rank-order of features. In all countries, participants rated previously identified central (vs. peripheral) features as more prototypical of nostalgia, and showed greater interindividual agreement regarding central (vs. peripheral) features. Cluster analyses revealed subtle variation among groups of countries with respect to the strength of these pancultural patterns. All except African countries manifested the same factor structure of nostalgia features. Additional exemplars generated by participants in an open-ended format did not entail elaboration of the existing set of 35 features. Findings identified key points of cross-cultural agreement regarding conceptions of nostalgia, supporting the notion that nostalgia is a pancultural emotion.

Drawing Conclusions from Cross-Lagged Relationships: Re-Considering the Role of the Time-Interval

Abstract: The cross-lagged panel model (CLPM), a discrete-time (DT) SEM model, is frequently used to gather evidence for (reciprocal) Granger-causal relationships when lacking an experimental design. However...

Modeling Psychopathology: From Data Models to Formal Theories

Abstract: This dissertation deals with the problem of modeling psychopathology. Its first part focuses on statistical (data) models and introduces a number of models for cross-sectional and time series data that can be visualized as a network. This includes Mixed Graphical Models (MGMs), which allow one to include variables of different types in a statistical network model, Moderated Network Models (MNMs) which allow pairwise interactions to be moderated by other variables in the model, and time-varying Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models and MGMs that relax the standard assumption of stationarity. In addition, I discuss several methodological issues related to statistical network models such as the importance of considering predictability, model selection between AR and VAR models, and how the interpretation of the Ising model depends on its domain. The second part focuses on formal theories of psychopathology and how to develop them using data models. I first illustrate the fundamental difficulties in obtaining a formal theory with a purely statistical approach, by trying to recover an assumed bistable system for emotion dynamics with currently popular time series analyses. Next, I present a formal theory of panic disorder, based on an extensive review of the literature on the phenomenology of panic disorder and existing theories. Finally, I discuss three different ways to use data models to construct formal theories about psychopathological phenomena. Based on this discussion, I put forward an abductive framework for constructing formal theories for psychological and psychopathological phenomena.

Comorbidity between depression and anxiety: assessing the role of bridge mental states in dynamic psychological networks.

Abstract: Comorbidity between depressive and anxiety disorders is common. A hypothesis of the network perspective on psychopathology is that comorbidity arises due to the interplay of symptoms shared by both disorders, with overlapping symptoms acting as so-called bridges, funneling symptom activation between symptom clusters of each disorder. This study investigated this hypothesis by testing whether (i) two overlapping mental states “worrying” and “feeling irritated” functioned as bridges in dynamic mental state networks of individuals with both depression and anxiety as compared to individuals with either disorder alone, and (ii) overlapping or non-overlapping mental states functioned as stronger bridges. Data come from the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety (NESDA). A total of 143 participants met criteria for comorbid depression and anxiety (65%), 40 participants for depression-only (18.2%), and 37 for anxiety-only (16.8%) during any NESDA wave. Participants completed momentary assessments of symptoms (i.e., mental states) of depression and anxiety, five times a day, for 2 weeks (14,185 assessments). First, dynamics between mental states were modeled with a multilevel vector autoregressive model, using Bayesian estimation. Summed average lagged indirect effects through the hypothesized bridge mental states were compared between groups. Second, we evaluated the role of all mental states as potential bridge mental states. While the summed indirect effect for the bridge mental state “worrying” was larger in the comorbid group compared to the single disorder groups, differences between groups were not statistically significant. The difference between groups became more pronounced when only examining individuals with recent diagnoses (< 6 months). However, the credible intervals of the difference scores remained wide. In the second analysis, a non-overlapping item (“feeling down”) acted as the strongest bridge mental state in both the comorbid and anxiety-only groups. This study empirically examined a prominent network-approach hypothesis for the first time using longitudinal data. No support was found for overlapping mental states “worrying” and “feeling irritable” functioning as bridge mental states in individuals vulnerable for comorbid depression and anxiety. Potentially, bridge mental state activity can only be observed during acute symptomatology. If so, these may present as interesting targets in treatment, but not prevention. This requires further investigation.

An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. [Facsimil]

Abstract: Problem Given the number of times in which an unknown event has happened and failed: Required the chance that the probability of its happening in a single trial lies somewhere between any two degrees of probability that can be named. SECTION 1 Definition 1. Several events are inconsistent, when if one of them happens, none of the rest can. 2. Two events are contrary when one, or other of them must; and both together cannot happen. 3. An event is said to fail, when it cannot happen; or, which comes to the same thing, when its contrary has happened. 4. An event is said to be determined when it has either happened or failed. 5. The probability of any event is the ratio between the value at which an expectation depending on the happening of the event ought to be computed, and the value of the thing expected upon it’s 2 happening.

Bayesian statistics and modelling

Abstract: Bayesian statistics is an approach to data analysis based on Bayes’ theorem, where available knowledge about parameters in a statistical model is updated with the information in observed data. The background knowledge is expressed as a prior distribution and combined with observational data in the form of a likelihood function to determine the posterior distribution. The posterior can also be used for making predictions about future events. This Primer describes the stages involved in Bayesian analysis, from specifying the prior and data models to deriving inference, model checking and refinement. We discuss the importance of prior and posterior predictive checking, selecting a proper technique for sampling from a posterior distribution, variational inference and variable selection. Examples of successful applications of Bayesian analysis across various research fields are provided, including in social sciences, ecology, genetics, medicine and more. We propose strategies for reproducibility and reporting standards, outlining an updated WAMBS (when to Worry and how to Avoid the Misuse of Bayesian Statistics) checklist. Finally, we outline the impact of Bayesian analysis on artificial intelligence, a major goal in the next decade. This Primer on Bayesian statistics summarizes the most important aspects of determining prior distributions, likelihood functions and posterior distributions, in addition to discussing different applications of the method across disciplines.

On Using Bayesian Methods to Address Small Sample Problems

Abstract: As Bayesian methods continue to grow in accessibility and popularity, more empirical studies are turning to Bayesian methods to model small sample data. Bayesian methods do not rely on asympotics, a property that can be a hindrance when employing frequentist methods in small sample contexts. Although Bayesian methods are better equipped to model data with small sample sizes, estimates are highly sensitive to the specification of the prior distribution. If this aspect is not heeded, Bayesian estimates can actually be worse than frequentist methods, especially if frequentist small sample corrections are utilized. We show with illustrative simulations and applied examples that relying on software defaults or diffuse priors with small samples can yield more biased estimates than frequentist methods. We discuss conditions that need to be met if researchers want to responsibly harness the advantages that Bayesian methods offer for small sample problems as well as leading small sample frequentist methods.