Okitsugu Watanabe

Bio: Okitsugu Watanabe is an academic researcher from National Institute of Polar Research. The author has contributed to research in topics: Ice core & Ice sheet. The author has an hindex of 29, co-authored 144 publications receiving 5476 citations.

High-resolution record of Northern Hemisphere climate extending into the last interglacial period.

Abstract: High-resolution record of Northern Hemisphere climate extending into the last interglacial period

Northern Hemisphere forcing of climatic cycles in Antarctica over the past 360,000 years

Abstract: The Milankovitch theory of climate change proposes that glacial–interglacial cycles are driven by changes in summer insolation at high northern latitudes. The timing of climate change in the Southern Hemisphere at glacial–interglacial transitions (which are known as terminations) relative to variations in summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere is an important test of this hypothesis. So far, it has only been possible to apply this test to the most recent termination because the dating uncertainty associated with older terminations is too large to allow phase relationships to be determined. Here we present a new chronology of Antarctic climate change over the past 360,000 years that is based on the ratio of oxygen to nitrogen molecules in air trapped in the Dome Fuji and Vostok ice cores. This ratio is a proxy for local summer insolation5, and thus allows the chronology to be constructed by orbital tuning without the need to assume a lag between a climate record and an orbital parameter. The accuracy of the chronology allows us to examine the phase relationships between climate records from the ice cores and changes in insolation. Our results indicate that orbital-scale Antarctic climate change lags Northern Hemisphere insolation by a few millennia, and that the increases in Antarctic temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration during the last four terminations occurred within the rising phase of Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. These results support the Milankovitch theory that Northern Hemisphere summer insolation triggered the last four deglaciations

Homogeneous climate variability across East Antarctica over the past three glacial cycles

Abstract: Recent ice core studies have raised the disturbing possibility that glacial–interglacial climate changes may be non-uniform across Antarctica1,2. These findings have been confined to records from the Ross Sea sector of the continent, but significant deviations in other areas would call into question the widely assumed validity of the climate record obtained from Vostok, East Antarctica, on large spatial scales3. Here we present an isotopic profile from a core drilled at Dome Fuji4,5, situated 1,500 km from Vostok in a different sector of East Antarctica. The two records show remarkable similarities over the past three glacial cycles (the extent of the Dome Fuji record) in both large-amplitude changes, such as terminations, interglacials and interstadials and more subtle glacial events, even when the origin of precipitation is accounted for. Our results indicate that Antarctic climate is essentially homogeneous at the scale of the East Antarctic Plateau, possibly as a consequence of the symmetry of the plateau and the adjacent ocean.

Nature of radio echo layering in the Antarctic Ice Sheet detected by a two-frequency experiment

Abstract: A two-frequency radio echo sounding experiment was carried out at Dome Fuji, the second highest dome in East Antarctica, and along a 1150-km-long traverse line from the dome to the coast. The goal was to determine the dominant causes of the radio echo internal reflections and to investigate their possible changes with depth ranges and regions. From the two-frequency (60 MHz and 179 MHz) radio echo responses at various sites, we distinguished four zones. Each of the zones is characterized by a dominant cause of radio echo internal reflection as follows. In the “PD” zone, changes in dielectric permittivity are mainly due to density fluctuations; in the “PCOF” zone, changes in dielectric permittivity are mainly due to changes in crystal-orientation fabrics; and in the “CA” zone, changes in electrical conductivity are mainly due to changes in acidity induced by past volcanic eruptions. In each of these three zones, the changes occur commonly along isochrones. In addition, a basal echo-free zone, the fourth zone, was found to appear always below the PCOF zone. These four zones and their distribution suggested variations of the physical conditions within the ice sheet.

Increase in the atmospheric nitrous oxide concentration during the last 250 years

Abstract: In order to estimate the concentrations of atmospheric nitrous oxide (N 2 O) during the last 250 years, air samples were extracted from an Antarctic ice core, H15, using a dry extraction system and were then analyzed with a precision of ±2 ppbv. The results obtained were clearly less scattered and much tighter than those of the previous studies. Our data showed that the concentrations of atmospheric N 2 O in the 18th century were about 276 ppbv on average. It was also obvious that the N 2 O concentration began to increase in the mid-19th century and reached approximately 293 ppbv around 1965, the trend of the concentration increase correlating quite well with the direct atmospheric measurements at the South Pole. Such an increase in the atmospheric N 2 O concentration is thought to be of anthropogenic origin.

The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300

Abstract: We present the greenhouse gas concentrations for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their extensions beyond 2100, the Extended Concentration Pathways (ECPs). These projections include all major anthropogenic greenhouse gases and are a result of a multi-year effort to produce new scenarios for climate change research. We combine a suite of atmospheric concentration observations and emissions estimates for greenhouse gases (GHGs) through the historical period (1750-2005) with harmonized emissions projected by four different Integrated Assessment Models for 2005-2100. As concentrations are somewhat dependent on the future climate itself (due to climate feedbacks in the carbon and other gas cycles), we emulate median response characteristics of models assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report using the reduced-complexity carbon cycle climate model MAGICC6. Projected 'best-estimate' global-mean surface temperature increases (using inter alia a climate sensitivity of 3°C) range from 1.5°C by 2100 for the lowest of the four RCPs, called both RCP3-PD and RCP2.6, to 4.5°C for the highest one, RCP8.5, relative to pre-industrial levels. Beyond 2100, we present the ECPs that are simple extensions of the RCPs, based on the assumption of either smoothly stabilizing concentrations or constant emissions: For example,

The IntCal20 Northern Hemisphere Radiocarbon Age Calibration Curve (0-55 cal kBP)

Abstract: Radiocarbon (14C) ages cannot provide absolutely dated chronologies for archaeological or paleoenvironmental studies directly but must be converted to calendar age equivalents using a calibration curve compensating for fluctuations in atmospheric 14C concentration. Although calibration curves are constructed from independently dated archives, they invariably require revision as new data become available and our understanding of the Earth system improves. In this volume the international 14C calibration curves for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as for the ocean surface layer, have been updated to include a wealth of new data and extended to 55,000 cal BP. Based on tree rings, IntCal20 now extends as a fully atmospheric record to ca. 13,900 cal BP. For the older part of the timescale, IntCal20 comprises statistically integrated evidence from floating tree-ring chronologies, lacustrine and marine sediments, speleothems, and corals. We utilized improved evaluation of the timescales and location variable 14C offsets from the atmosphere (reservoir age, dead carbon fraction) for each dataset. New statistical methods have refined the structure of the calibration curves while maintaining a robust treatment of uncertainties in the 14C ages, the calendar ages and other corrections. The inclusion of modeled marine reservoir ages derived from a three-dimensional ocean circulation model has allowed us to apply more appropriate reservoir corrections to the marine 14C data rather than the previous use of constant regional offsets from the atmosphere. Here we provide an overview of the new and revised datasets and the associated methods used for the construction of the IntCal20 curve and explore potential regional offsets for tree-ring data. We discuss the main differences with respect to the previous calibration curve, IntCal13, and some of the implications for archaeology and geosciences ranging from the recent past to the time of the extinction of the Neanderthals.

The Anthropocene: are humans now overwhelming the great forces of Nature?

Abstract: We explore the development of the Anthropocene, the current epoch in which humans and our societies have become a global geophysical force. The Anthropocene began around 1800 with the onset of industrialization, the central feature of which was the enormous expansion in the use of fossil fuels. We use atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration as a single, simple indicator to track the progression of the Anthropocene. From a preindustrial value of 270-275 ppm, atmospheric carbon dioxide had risen to about 310 ppm by 1950. Since then the human enterprise has experienced a remarkable explosion, the Great Acceleration, with significant consequences for Earth System functioning. Atmospheric CO2 concentration has risen from 310 to 380 ppm since 1950, with about half of the total rise since the preindustrial era occurring in just the last 30 years. The Great Acceleration is reaching criticality. Whatever unfolds, the next few decades will surely be a tipping point in the evolution of the Anthropocene.

High-resolution record of Northern Hemisphere climate extending into the last interglacial period.

Abstract: High-resolution record of Northern Hemisphere climate extending into the last interglacial period

The holocene Asian monsoon : links to solar changes and North Atlantic climate

Abstract: A 5-year-resolution absolute-dated oxygen isotope record from Dongge Cave, southern China, provides a continuous history of the Asian monsoon over the past 9000 years. Although the record broadly follows summer insolation, it is punctuated by eight weak monsoon events lasting approximately 1 to 5 centuries. One correlates with the "8200-year" event, another with the collapse of the Chinese Neolithic culture, and most with North Atlantic ice-rafting events. Cross-correlation of the decadal- to centennial-scale monsoon record with the atmospheric carbon-14 record shows that some, but not all, of the monsoon variability at these frequencies results from changes in solar output.