Pamela K. Lattimore

Bio: Pamela K. Lattimore is an academic researcher from University of South Carolina. The author has contributed to research in topics: Recidivism & Population. The author has an hindex of 17, co-authored 41 publications receiving 1233 citations. Previous affiliations of Pamela K. Lattimore include RTI International.

The influence of probability on risky choice: A parametric examination

Abstract: The appeal of expected utility theory as a basis for a descriptive model of risky decision making has diminished as a result of empirical evidence which suggests that individuals do not behave in a manner consistent with the prescriptive tenets of EUT. In this paper, we explore the influence of probability on risky choice, by proposing and estimating a parametric model of risky decision making. Our results suggest that models which provide for probability transformations are most appropriate for the majority of subjects. Further, we find that the transformation differs for most subjects depending upon whether the risky outcomes are gains or losses. Most subjects are considerably less sensitive to changes in mid-range probability than is proposed by the expected utility model and risk-seeking behavior over ‘long-shot’ odds is common.

Predicting the recidivism of serious youthful offenders using survival models

Abstract: VioLit summary: OBJECTIVE: The purpose of the research conducted by Visher et al. was to develop a model which predicts the recidivism of youthful offenders. METHODOLOGY: The authors employed a quasi-experimental, cross-sectional research design. The subjects used in their study were 1,949 randomly selected male youth (under age 25) who were released to parole in the state of California between July 1, 1981 and June 30, 1982. The subjects began their criminal activities at a young age (average age of 14.2 years) and more than 80% had 4 or more arrests. The authors defined recidivism (or failure) as a subsequent arrest in California within 3 years of being released to parole. Eighty-eight percent of the subjects (1,710) were rearrested within this time frame. The dependent variable in their study was time to rearrest. They had over 30 independent variables grouped under the headings of criminal history, current commitment (offense type, length of commitment), substance abuse and school problems, family background, and environmental (community crime rate and crime clearance rate). Their analysis was based on a hazard model which predicted the likelihood that a given youth would fail in a certain time period given that he had not failed in a prior period. The model distinguished between youths who failed before 36 weeks and those who failed after 36 weeks. The model was tested for accuracy using 4 subjects from the original sample: one with the highest probability of failing, one with the lowest, one from the middle of the probability distribution, and one subject whose hazard function showed the greatest variation over time. Data were analyzed using chi-square statistics. FINDINGS/DISCUSSION: The researchers found that the criminal history variables and variables describing the current commitment had a larger impact on the hazard function than the other independent variables. Other variables were also significantly related to risk of recidivism including substance abuse and school problems, family background variables (i.e., intrafamily abuse, parent criminality), and 6 out of the 7 variables which described county-level property and violent crime rates and clearance rates. The variables which were dropped from the model were the number of arrests, violence criminal history score, family violence, and parent criminality. When the model was tested for accuracy, the researchers found "reasonably good agreement" between expected and observed recidivism for the 4 subjects at the end of 4 weeks as well as at the end of 36 weeks. However, there was a great disparity between observed and expected recidivism as time progressed toward three years with the hazard model overestimating failures. The authors also found that the model was useful when subjects were divided into high- and low-risk groups with results varying depending on where the line was drawn between the two groups. AUTHORS' RECOMMENDATIONS: The authors proposed that parole officers and correctional administrators could use their model to determine how to divide up the case load among officers such that the level of supervision required by a youthful offender could be determined by the risk level assigned to him/her. (CSPV Abstract - Copyright © 1992-2007 by the Center for the Study and Prevention of Violence, Institute of Behavioral Science, Regents of the University of Colorado) 1980s California Recidivism Prediction Offender Recidivism Juvenile Offender Juvenile Male Juvenile Crime Juvenile Delinquency Juvenile Violence Male Crime Male Delinquency Male Offender Male Violence Adult Crime Adult Male Adult Violence Adult Offender Offender Characteristics Parole Community Risk Factors Family Risk Factors Individual Risk Factors Recidivism Causes Recidivism Risk Factors Crime Causes Crime Risk Factors Delinquency Causes Delinquency Risk Factors Violence Causes Violence Risk Factors 03-05

Predicting Rearrest for Violence among Serious Youthful Offenders

Abstract: This article presents the results of an analysis of the risk of arrest for a violent crime for a cohort of youthful parolees. The sample consists of 1,949 individuals paroled by the California Youth Authority between July 1, 1981, and June 30, 1982. Results of a multivariate competing hazards analysis suggest that prior criminal history and socioeconomic variables are powerful predictors of both the timing and the charge of first arrest following parole. In comparison to results from a model predicting rearrest for any crime, rearrest for violence is significantly influenced by prior arrests for violence and several family pathology variables, including evidence of family violence and parental criminality. Prior gang involvement and heavy use of alcohol and illicit drugs have little predictive ability for violent recidivism among our sample. The results indicate that prediction of rearrest for violence among a group of serious youthful offenders may be practical if criminal history, institutional behavior...

Document Title: The Multi-site Evaluation of SVORI: Summary and Synthesis

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Evaluating the Long-Term Effects of Prisoner Reentry Services on Recidivism: What Types of Services Matter?

Abstract: We analyzed data collected for a large multi-site evaluation of 12 prisoner reentry programs in 12 states to examine the impact of pre-release services on time to rearrest and number of rearrests up to 56 months post-release for male offenders. A two-stage matching quasi-experimental design was used to define the comparison groups and multivariate models were used to examine the relationships among service and program receipt and recidivism. Participation in the reentry program was associated with longer time to arrest and fewer arrests after release. However, the specific services delivered as part of the program showed modest or inconsistent impacts on recidivism. Services that focused on individual change were more beneficial than services that focused on practical skills and needs. Practitioners should consider careful sequencing of program and service delivery in prison, linking in-prison services to post-release assistance, and evaluating all services and programs for fidelity and effectiveness.

Developments in Non-expected Utility Theory: The Hunt for a Descriptive Theory of Choice under Risk

Abstract: This article reviews recent developments in the economic theory of individual decision making under risk. Since the 1950s it has been known that individual choices violate the standard model of expected utility in predictable ways. Considerable research effort has now been devoted to the project of developing a superior descriptive model. Following an overview of non-expected utility theories which distinguishes between "conventional" and "non-conventional" approaches, the paper seeks to assess these alternative models in terms of empirical success (using laboratory and field data) and theoretical usefulness. The closing sections reflect on some new directions emerging in this literature.

Psychiatric disorders in youth in juvenile detention.

Abstract: Background Given the growth of juvenile detainee populations, epidemiologic data on their psychiatric disorders are increasingly important. Yet, there are few empirical studies. Until we have better epidemiologic data, we cannot know how best to use the system's scarce mental health resources. Methods Using the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children version 2.3, interviewers assessed a randomly selected, stratified sample of 1829 African American, non-Hispanic white, and Hispanic youth (1172 males, 657 females, ages 10-18 years) who were arrested and detained in Cook County, Illinois (which includes Chicago and surrounding suburbs). We present 6-month prevalence estimates by demographic subgroups (sex, race/ethnicity, and age) for the following disorders: affective disorders (major depressive episode, dysthymia, manic episode), anxiety (panic, separation anxiety, overanxious, generalized anxiety, and obsessive-compulsive disorders), psychosis, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, disruptive behavior disorders (oppositional defiant disorder, conduct disorder), and substance use disorders (alcohol and other drugs). Results Nearly two thirds of males and nearly three quarters of females met diagnostic criteria for one or more psychiatric disorders. Excluding conduct disorder (common among detained youth), nearly 60% of males and more than two thirds of females met diagnostic criteria and had diagnosis-specific impairment for one or more psychiatric disorders. Half of males and almost half of females had a substance use disorder, and more than 40% of males and females met criteria for disruptive behavior disorders. Affective disorders were also prevalent, especially among females; more than 20% of females met criteria for a major depressive episode. Rates of many disorders were higher among females, non-Hispanic whites, and older adolescents. Conclusions These results suggest substantial psychiatric morbidity among juvenile detainees. Youth with psychiatric disorders pose a challenge for the juvenile justice system and, after their release, for the larger mental health system.

Understanding Desistance from Crime

Abstract: The study of desistance from crime is hampered by definitional, measurement, and theoretical incoherence. A unifying framework can distinguish termination of offending from the process of desistanc...

Weighing Risk and Uncertainty

Abstract: Decision theory distinguishes between risky prospects, where the probabilities associated with the possible outcomes are assumed to be known, and uncertain prospects, where these probabilities are not assumed to be known. Studies of choice between risky prospects have suggested a nonlinear transformation of the probability scale that overweights low probabilities and underweights moderate and high probabilities. The present article extends this notion from risk to uncertainty by invoking the principle of bounded subadditivity: An event has greater impact when it turns impossibility into possibility, or possibility into certainty, than when it merely makes a possibility more or less likely. A series of studies provides support for this principle in decision under both risk and uncertainty and shows that people are less sensitive to uncertainty than to risk. Finally, the article discusses the relationship between probability judgments and decision weights and distinguishes relative sensitivity from ambiguity aversion. Decisions are generally made without definite knowledge of their consequences. The decisions to invest in the stock market, to undergo a medical operation, or to go to court are generally made without knowing in advance whether the market will go up, the operation will be successful, or the court will decide in one's favor. Decision under uncertainty, therefore, calls for an evaluation of two attributes: the desirability of possible outcomes and their likelihood of occurrence. Indeed, much of the study of decision making is concerned with the assessment of these values and the manner in which they are—or should be— combined. In the classical theory of decision under risk, the utility of each outcome is weighted by its probability of occurrence. Consider a simple prospect of the form (x, p) that offers a probability p to win $jc and a probability 1 — p to win nothing. The expected utility of this prospect is given by pu(x) + (1 — p)w(O), where u is the utility function for money. Expected utility theory has been developed to explain attitudes toward risk, namely, risk aversion and risk seeking. Risk aversion is denned as a preference for a sure outcome over a prospect with an equal or greater expected value. Thus, choosing a sure $100 over an even chance to win $200 or nothing is an expression of risk aversion. Risk seeking is exhibited if a prospect is preferred to a sure outcome with equal or greater expected value. It is commonly assumed that people are risk averse, which is explained in expected utility theory by a concave utility function. The experimental study of decision under risk has shown that people often violate both the expected utility model and the