Paolo Bazzurro

Bio: Paolo Bazzurro is an academic researcher from Istituto Universitario Di Studi Superiori Di Pavia. The author has contributed to research in topics: Seismic hazard & Seismic risk. The author has an hindex of 30, co-authored 97 publications receiving 3610 citations. Previous affiliations of Paolo Bazzurro include University of California, Los Angeles & Stanford University.

Earthquakes, Records, and Nonlinear Responses

Abstract: The estimation of MDOF nonlinear structural response given an earth‐quake of magnitude M at distance R is studied with respect to issues such as the benefits and harms of (1) first scaling the records, (2) selecting records from the “wrong” magnitude, (3) alternative choices for how to scale the records, and (4) scaling records to a significantly higher or lower intensity, etc. We find that properly chosen scaling can reduce the necessity of the number of nonlinear analyses by a factor of about four, and that proper scaling does not introduce any bias. Several global and local nonlinear damage measures are considered. A five‐DOF model of a steel structure is used; other cases are under study. The paper finishes with a demonstration of the use of such results in the estimation of the annual probability of exceeding a specified interstory ductility (drift) or other damage measures.

Disaggregation of seismic hazard

Abstract: Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) integrates over all potential earthquake occurrences and ground motions to estimate the mean frequency of exceedance of any given spectral acceleration at the site. For improved communication and insights, it is becoming common practice to display the relative contributions to that hazard from the range of values of magnitude, M , distance, R , and epsilon, ɛ , the number of standard deviations from the median ground motion as predicted by an attenuation equation. The proposed disaggregation procedures, while conceptually similar, differ in several important points that are often not reported by the researchers and not appreciated by the users. We discuss here such issues, for example, definition of the probability distribution to be disaggregated, different disaggregation techniques, disaggregation of R versus ln R , and the effects of different binning strategies on the results. Misconception of these details may lead to unintended interpretations of the relative contributions to hazard. Finally, we propose to improve the disaggregation process by displaying hazard contributions in terms of not R , but latitude, longitude, as well as M and ɛ . This permits a display directly on a typical map of the faults of the surrounding area and hence enables one to identify hazard-dominating scenario events and to associate them with one or more specific faults, rather than a given distance. This information makes it possible to account for other seismic source characteristics, such as rupture mechanism and near-source effects, during selection of scenario-based ground-motion time histories for structural analysis.

Does amplitude scaling of ground motion records result in biased nonlinear structural drift responses

Abstract: Limitations of the existing earthquake ground motion database lead to scaling of records to obtain seismograms consistent with a ground motion target for structural design and evaluation. In the engineering seismology community, acceptable limits for ‘legitimate’ scaling vary from one (no scaling allowed) to 10 or more. The concerns expressed by detractors of scaling are mostly based on the knowledge of, for example, differences in ground motion characteristics for different earthquake magnitude–distance (Mw–Rclose) scenarios, and much less on their effects on structures. At the other end of the spectrum, proponents have demonstrated that scaling is not only legitimate but also useful for assessing structural response statistics for Mw–Rclose scenarios. Their studies, however, have not investigated more recent purposes of scaling and have not always drawn conclusions for a wide spectrum of structural vibration periods and strengths. This article investigates whether scaling of records randomly selected from an Mw–Rclose bin (or range) to a target fundamental-mode spectral acceleration (Sa) level introduces bias in the expected nonlinear structural drift response of both single-degree-of-freedom oscillators and one multi-degree-of-freedom building. The bias is quantified relative to unscaled records from the target Mw–Rclose bin that are ‘naturally’ at the target Sa level. We consider scaling of records from the target Mw–Rclose bin and from other Mw–Rclose bins. The results demonstrate that scaling can indeed introduce a bias that, for the most part, can be explained by differences between the elastic response spectra of the scaled versus unscaled records. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Nonlinear Soil-Site Effects in Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Analysis

Abstract: This study presents effective probabilistic procedures for evaluating ground-motion hazard at the free-field surface of a nonlinear soil deposit located at a specific site. Ground motion at the surface, or at any depth of interest within the soil formation (e.g., at the structure foundation level), is defined here in terms either of a suite of oscillator-frequency-dependent hazard curves for spectral acceleration, , or of one or more spectral acceleration uniform-hazard spectra, each associated s S ( f ) a with a given mean return period. It is presumed that similar information is available for the rock-outcrop input. The effects of uncertainty in soil properties are directly included. This methodology incorporates the amplification of the local soil deposit into the framework of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). The soil amplification is characterized by a frequency-dependent amplification function, AF( f ), where f is a generic oscillator frequency. AF( f ) is defined as the ratio of to the spectral s S ( f ) a acceleration at the bedrock level, . The estimates of the statistics of the ampli- s S ( f ) a fication function are obtained by a limited number of nonlinear dynamic analyses of the soil column with uncertain properties, as discussed in a companion article in this issue (Bazzurro and Cornell, 2004). The hazard at the soil surface (or at any desired depth) is computed by convolving the site-specific hazard curve at the bedrock level with the probability distribution of the amplification function. The approach presented here provides more precise surface ground-motion-hazard estimates than those found by means of standard attenuation laws for generic soil conditions. The use of generic ground-motion predictive equations may in fact lead to inaccurate results especially for soft-clay-soil sites, where considerable amplifi- cation is expected at long periods, and for saturated sandy sites, where high-intensity ground shaking may cause loss of shear strength owing to liquefaction or to cyclic mobility. Both such cases are considered in this article. In addition to the proposed procedure, two alternative, easier-to-implement but approximate techniques for obtaining hazard estimates at the soil surface are also briefly discussed. One is based on running a conventional PSHA with a rock- attenuation relationship modified to include the soil response, whereas the other consists of using a simple, analytical, closed-form solution that appropriately mod- ifies the hazard results at the rock level.

Ground-Motion Amplification in Nonlinear Soil Sites with Uncertain Properties

Abstract: This work presents a statistical study on the effect of soil layers with uncertain properties on ground-motion intensity at the soil surface. Surface motion is obtained by applying multiple real rock earthquake records at the base of different characterizations of the soil column, each one generated via Monte Carlo simulation. The effect of the soil is studied in terms of a site-specific, frequency-dependent amplification function, AF( f ), where f is a generic oscillator frequency. The goal here is the identification of ground-motion parameters that allow an efficient prediction of AF( f ). We investigated magnitude, M, source-to-site distance, R, of the input bedrock accelerogram along with bedrock ground-motion parameters such as peak ground acceleration, PGAr, and spectral acceleration values, and , both rr S ( f ) S ( f ) aa sc at the generic frequency f and at the specific initial fundamental frequency of vibra- tion, fsc of the soil column. This work includes two case studies: a saturated sandy site and a saturated soft clayey site. In the former, loss of shear strength owing to cyclic mobility is anticipated for severe levels of ground shaking, while in the latter, significant amplification is expected at long oscillator periods. The results show that of the input record is the single most helpful parameter for the prediction of r S ( f ) a AF( f ) at the same oscillator frequency, f. is more informative than PGAr and/ r S ( f ) a or the pair of M and R values of the event that generated the bedrock motion. A sufficiently accurate estimate of the median AF( f ) can be obtained by using 10 or fewer records, which may be selected without undue attention to the specific scenario events (i.e., M and R pairs) that control the hazard at the site. Finally, the effect of the uncertainty in the soil parameters on the prediction error of AF( f ) is of secondary importance compared to that from record-to-record variability. These findings will be used to estimate the hazard at the soil surface in a companion article in this issue (Bazzurro and Cornell, 2004).

Incremental dynamic analysis

Abstract: Incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) is a parametric analysis method that has recently emerged in several different forms to estimate more thoroughly structural performance under seismic loads. It involves subjecting a structural model to one (or more) ground motion record(s), each scaled to multiple levels of intensity, thus producing one (or more) curve(s) of response parameterized versus intensity level. To establish a common frame of reference, the fundamental concepts are analysed, a unified terminology is proposed, suitable algorithms are presented, and properties of the IDA curve are looked into for both single-degree-of-freedom and multi-degree-of-freedom structures. In addition, summarization techniques for multi-record IDA studies and the association of the IDA study with the conventional static pushover analysis and the yield reduction R-factor are discussed. Finally, in the framework of performance-based earthquake engineering, the assessment of demand and capacity is viewed through the lens of an IDA study. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Applied Linear Regression Models

Abstract: (1991). Applied Linear Regression Models. Journal of Quality Technology: Vol. 23, No. 1, pp. 76-77.

Probabilistic Basis for 2000 SAC Federal Emergency Management Agency Steel Moment Frame Guidelines

Abstract: This paper presents a formal probabilistic framework for seismic design and assessment of structures and its application to steel moment-resisting frame buildings. This is the probabilistic basis for the 2000 SAC Federal Emergency Management Agency ~FEMA! steel moment frame guidelines. The framework is based on realizing a performance objective expressed as the probability of exceeding a specified performance level. Performance levels are quantified as expressions relating generic structural variables ''demand'' and ''capacity'' that are described by nonlinear, dynamic displacements of the structure. Common probabilistic analysis tools are used to convolve both the randomness and uncertainty characteristics of ground motion intensity, structural ''demand,'' and structural system ''capacity'' in order to derive an expression for the probability of achieving the specified performance level. Stemming from this probabilistic framework, a safety-checking format of the conventional ''load and resistance factor'' kind is developed with load and resistance terms being replaced by the more generic terms ''demand'' and ''capacity,'' respectively. This framework also allows for a format based on quantitative confidence statements regarding the likelihood of the performance objective being met. This format has been adopted in the SAC/FEMA guidelines.

NGA Ground Motion Model for the Geometric Mean Horizontal Component of PGA, PGV, PGD and 5% Damped Linear Elastic Response Spectra for Periods Ranging from 0.01 to 10 s

Abstract: We present a new empirical ground motion model for PGA, PGV, PGD and 5% damped linear elastic response spectra for periods ranging from 0.01– 10 s. The model was developed as part of the PEER Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) project. We used a subset of the PEER NGA database for which we excluded recordings and earthquakes that were believed to be inappropriate for estimating free-field ground motions from shallow earthquake mainshocks in active tectonic regimes. We developed relations for both the median and standard deviation of the geometric mean horizontal component of ground motion that we consider to be valid for magnitudes ranging from 4.0 up to 7.5–8.5 (depending on fault mechanism) and distances ranging from 0 – 200 km. The model explicitly includes the effects of magnitude saturation, magnitude-dependent attenuation, style of faulting, rupture depth, hanging-wall geometry, linear and nonlinear site response, 3-D basin response, and inter-event and intra-event variability. Soil nonlinearity causes the intra-event standard deviation to depend on the amplitude of PGA on reference rock rather than on magnitude, which leads to a decrease in aleatory uncertainty at high levels of ground shaking for sites located on soil. DOI: 10.1193/1.2857546

NGA-West2 Equations for Predicting PGA, PGV, and 5% Damped PSA for Shallow Crustal Earthquakes:

Abstract: We provide ground motion prediction equations for computing medians and standard deviations of average horizontal component intensity measures (IMs) for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tecton...