Paolo Piselli

Bio: Paolo Piselli is an academic researcher from Banca d'Italia. The author has contributed to research in topics: Emerging markets & Business cycle. The author has an hindex of 13, co-authored 34 publications receiving 2021 citations.

The Impact of R&D Subsidies on Firm Innovation

Abstract: This paper evaluates the impact of an R&D subsidy program implemented in a region of northern Italy on innovation by beneficiary firms. In order to verify whether the subsidies enabled firms to increase patenting activity, we exploit the mechanism used to allot the funds. Since only projects that scored above a certain threshold received the subsidy, we use a sharp regression discontinuity design to compare the number of patent applications, and the probability of submitting one, of subsidized firms with those of unsubsidized firms close to the cut-off. We find that the program had a significant impact on the number of patents, more markedly in the case of smaller firms. Our results show that the program was also successful in increasing the probability of applying for a patent, but only in the case of smaller firms.

Emerging Markets Spreads and Global Financial Conditions

Abstract: In this article, we analyse how much of the reduction in emerging markets spreads can be ascribed to specific factors - linked to the improvement in the 'fundamentals' of a given country - rather than to common factors - linked to global liquidity conditions and agents' degree of risk aversion. By means of factor analysis, we find that a single common factor is able to explain a large part of the co-variation in emerging market economies spreads observed in the last four years; on its turn, this common factor might be traced back mainly to financial markets volatility. Due to the particularly benign global financial conditions in recent years, spreads seem to have declined to levels lower than those warranted by improved fundamentals. As a consequence, EMEs do remain vulnerable to sudden shift in financial market conditions.

Testing for East-West contagion in the European banking sector during the financial crisis

Abstract: Large and growing international financial linkages between East and West have altered the nature of the stability risks faced by European banking systems, increasing susceptibility to contagion. This paper aims to identify potential risks of cross-border contagion using a sample of large Western and Eastern European banks. We assume that contagion risk is associated with extreme co-movements in a market-based measure of bank soundness, controlling for common underlying factors. We also find evidence that contagion risk across European banks heightened significantly during the recent crisis. Contagion among Western European banks with the highest market share in Eastern Europe and from this group to Eastern European banks shows the largest increase in our sample. We find also evidence of contagion spreading from Eastern European banks, but this effect seems to reflect a broader phenomenon of contagion from emerging markets to banks in advanced countries exposed to these markets. Finally, our findings offer only mixed evidence of the existence of a direct ownership channel in the transmission of contagion.

Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model

Abstract: The ability of a two-sector model to quantify the contribution of the housing market to business fluctuations is investigated using U.S. data and Bayesian methods. The estimated model, which contains nominal and real rigidities and collateral constraints, displays the following features: first, a large fraction of the upward trend in real housing prices over the last 40 years can be accounted for by slow technological progress in the housing sector; second, residential investment and housing prices are very sensitive to monetary policy and housing demand shocks; third, the wealth effects from housing on consumption are positive and significant, and have become more important over time. The structural nature of the model allows identifying and quantifying the sources of fluctuations in house prices and residential investment and measuring the contribution of housing booms and busts to business cycles.

Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area

Abstract: This paper studies the role of credit-supply factors in business cycle fluctuations. For this purpose, we introduce an imperfectly competitive banking sector into a DSGE model with financial frictions. Banks issue collateralized loans to both households and firms, obtain funding via deposits and accumulate capital from retained earnings. Margins charged on loans depend on bank capital-to-assets ratios and on the degree of interest rate stickiness. Bank balance-sheet constraints establish a link between the business cycle, which affects bank profits and thus capital, and the supply and cost of loans. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques using data for the euro area. The analysis delivers the following results. First, the existence of a banking sector partially attenuates the effects of demand shocks, while it helps propagate supply shocks. Second, shocks originating in the banking sector explain the largest share of the fall of output in 2008 in the euro area, while macroeconomic shocks played a limited role. Third, an unexpected destruction of bank capital has a substantial impact on the real economy and particularly on investment.

Credit and banking in a DSGE model of the euro area

Abstract: This paper studies the role of credit-supply factors in business cycle ∞uctuations. To this end, an imperfectly competitive banking sector is introduced into a DGSE model with flnancial frictions. Banks issue loans to both households and flrms, obtain funding via deposits and accumulate capital out of retained earnings. Margins charged on loans depend on bank capital-to-asset ratio and on the degree of interest rate stickiness. Bank balance-sheet constraints establish a link between the business cycle, which afiects bank proflts and thus capital, and the supply and the cost of loans. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques using data for the euro area. We show that shocks originating in the banking sector explain the largest fraction of the fall of output in 2008 in the euro area, while macroeconomic shocks played a smaller role. We also flnd that an unexpected reduction in bank capital can have a substantial impact on the real economy and particularly on investment. JEL: E30; E32; E43; E51; E52;

Bank Profitability and the Business Cycle

Abstract: An important element of the macro-prudential analysis is the study of the link between business cycle fluctuations and banking sector profitability and how this link is affected by institutional and structural characteristics. This work estimates a set of equations for net interest income, non-interest income, operating costs, provisions, and profit before taxes, for banks in the main industrialized countries and evaluates the effects on banking profitability of shocks to both macroeconomic and financial factors. Distinguishing mainly the euro area from Anglo-Saxon countries, the analysis also identifies differences in the resilience of the respective banking systems and relates them to the characteristics of their financial structure.

Innovation and Productivity in SMEs - Empirical Evidence for Italy

Abstract: Innovation in SMEs exhibits some peculiar features that most traditional indicators of innovation activity do not capture Therefore, in this paper, we develop a structural model of innovation which incorporates information on innovation success from firm surveys along with the usual R&D expenditures and productivity measures We then apply the model to data on Italian SMEs from the “Survey on Manufacturing Firms” conducted by Mediocredito-Capitalia covering the period 1995-2003 The model is estimated in steps, following the logic of firms’ decisions and outcomes We find that international competition fosters R&D intensity, especially for high-tech firms Firm size, R&D intensity, along with investment in equipment enhances the likelihood of having both process and product innovation Both these kinds of innovation have a positive impact on firm’s productivity, especially process innovation Among SMEs, larger and older firms seem to be less productive